Ashok Bhan
As Jammu and Kashmir is going through for its long-anticipated elections in 2024, the political landscape is rife with both hope and skepticism. For many, this election represents a crucial turning point – one that could redefine not only Kashmir’s future but also India’s commitment to democratic values in the region. The stakes are high, and the outcome has the potential to reshape the narrative and reject violence and bigotry that has surrounded Kashmir for decades.
A highly placed Political personality in Delhi shared some intriguing insights. According to this insider, the Central Government is determined to make the upcoming Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Assembly elections as fair and impartial as possible. The directive is clear: this election must be seen as an election for all of India, not just for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or its allies.
Even Home Minister Amit Shah, who is known for his strong political influence, was reportedly cautioned from interfering in the electoral process. This signals an attempt by the Indian government to dispel past accusations of election manipulation, particularly those stemming from the infamous 1987 elections, which are often cited as a catalyst for the insurgency in the region.
The highly placed diplomats of various Countries including USA were allowed to visit Kashmir to watch for themselves the transparency, participation, free and fair elections on ground.
For decades, the 1987 elections have haunted Kashmir’s political memory. Accusations of widespread rigging by the Indian state not only damaged trust in democratic processes but also fueled violent resistance and militancy. This time, there seems to be a concerted effort to change that narrative. The goal is to convince the people of Kashmir that India can hold free and fair elections without undue influence, contrasting itself against the political turmoil in neighboring Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
The elections, scheduled to be held in three phases starting September 18, 2024, and culminating with results on October 4, 2024, will be the first since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. The reorganization of Jammu and Kashmir, which stripped the region of its special status, remains a contentious issue. Many political parties in the Valley, including those in the Gupkar Alliance, continue to call for the restoration of this status. However, despite their opposition to the reorganization and the delimitation commission’s findings, no party has opted to boycott the elections, a notable shift from earlier boycotts.
Since the abrogation of Article 370, the political and administrative landscape of J&K has changed dramatically. The region was bifurcated into two Union Territories – Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh – and the legislative assembly was dissolved. The BJP, which led the charge for this reorganization, argued that the special status had been misused by local governments, fostering corruption and exacerbating security threats. They pointed to the plight of refugees from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) and marginalized communities like the Valmikis, who were denied basic rights despite having lived in J&K for decades.
As the 2024 elections approach, these issues remain at the forefront of political discourse. The BJP and its opponents are battling not just for votes but for the very soul of Kashmir’s political future. The Gupkar Alliance, a coalition of regional parties including the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), has vowed to fight for the restoration of J&K’s special status. Meanwhile, the BJP has positioned itself as the party of national unity and development, aiming to capitalize on the economic and social changes that have occurred since 2019.
While political parties are busy strategizing, one group that is watching the elections with keen interest is the community of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), primarily Kashmiri Pandits who were forced to flee during the violence of the 1990s. For these individuals, the 2024 elections offer a glimmer of hope that their long exile might come to an end. However, they remain wary of empty promises. Many political parties have included vague references to the return and rehabilitation of IDPs in their manifestos, but the community has yet to see a comprehensive plan that addresses their specific needs and concerns.
The IDPs, despite their small numbers, hold significant symbolic value. Their plight has been used by politicians across the spectrum to garner votes, both in Kashmir and on the national stage. However, the community is now demanding concrete action. They want clarity from political parties on how they plan to address the challenges of return and rehabilitation, including property rights and security concerns.
As the election campaign heats up, Kashmiris are faced with a complex decision. The political landscape is deeply polarized, with competing visions for the future of the region. On one side are the valley-centric parties, whose manifestos focus on restoring J&K’s special status and reversing the bifurcation of the state. On the other side is the BJP, which has framed the election as a choice between national integration and regional autonomy.
For many voters, this election is about more than just politics. It is about reclaiming a sense of agency after decades of violence, uncertainty, and disillusionment. The inclusion of all political shades, including the controversial Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), adds another layer of complexity. Some see this as a positive step toward inclusivity and reconciliation, while others fear that it could reignite old divisions.
The 2024 J&K elections are not only significant domestically but also hold international ramifications. Pakistan has long sought to highlight the Kashmir issue on the global stage, portraying India’s actions in the region as oppressive and undemocratic. A free and fair election, with broad participation from across the political spectrum, could help India counter Pakistan’s narrative and strengthen its position internationally.
The people of Kashmir chose to engage fully in the electoral process and place their faith in Indian democracy, it would significantly weaken Pakistan’s case, both domestically and abroad. The comparison between elections in J&K and those in Pakistan-administered Kashmir will be stark, and a successful election in J&K has shifted the geopolitical dynamics of the region.
By now the Two phases of the 2024 elections are over with massive participation of people. Kashmir stands at a crossroads. This election has offered an opportunity for the region to move beyond the turbulence, violence, and political instability that have plagued it for decades. If conducted fairly and inclusively, the elections could mark the beginning of a new chapter in Kashmir’s complex history.
For New Delhi these elections are a chance to strengthen its democratic credentials and win the hearts and minds of the people of Kashmir. For Kashmiris, they have offered a rare opportunity to reject violence, bigotry and separatism; and a way forward to shape their future through the ballot box. The world will be watching closely to see whether this election lives up to its promise of being free, fair, and truly representative of the will of the people.
“It’s a triumph of democracy”
(The author is Senior Advocate, Supreme Court of India and a distinguished fellow, United Services of India (USI); Chairman; Kashmir Policy and Strategy Group)
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