Rajan Gandhi
Omar has the unique distinction of being the youngest CM of Jammu and Kashmir in January 2009 but ended it with becoming the first incumbent CM to lose an assembly election following his defeat to PDP green horn Mohammad Ashraf Mir from Sonawar assembly segment. Even his father, NC president Farooq Abdullah was not spared by voters as he lost 2014 parliamentary election, tasting electoral loss first time in 34 years. Writing on the wall was very much visible as killing of more than 120 persons in 2010 valley unrest and 2014 floods with slow pace of rehabilitation of affected further complicated by hanging of Afzal Guru by coalition partner Congress ruling the centre along with incumbency factor. The election for six Lok Sabha seats in the state earlier in 2014 had indicated that NC and Congress would be routed in the assembly polls. Such was the comprehensive nature of PDP’s victory over NC that its candidates took lead in 39 of the 46 assembly segments in the valley. BJP had taken lead in 27 assembly segments. While BJP’s tally came down slightly at 25 in the assembly polls, PDP’s numbers scaled down from 39 to 28 seats within a span of seven months. NC got 15 while Congress managed 12.
In 2002 PDP got 16, Congress got 20 while NC was reduced from 57 in 1996 to 28 and BJP got reduced to 1 only from 8. 2014 elections were a game changer for BJP as they consolidated their seats from 11, maximum they could manage after 61-day Shri Amarnath land row in 2008, to 25. A dream came true for them in Jammu division, in fact BJP had a larger vote share than any other party in the state, with 23% votes it polled slightly more than the PDP’s 22.7% with NC’s vote share dipping to 20.8% and the Congress could manage just 18%. BJP’s vote share was mainly due to its impressive showing in the Hindu-dominated seats of the Jammu region as out of 25 seats, it won 22 and garnered a vote share of staggering 48.1% in the region. The best performance of the BJP, however, was recorded in the border areas of Jammu province where it won an overwhelming 13 seats out of the 19. The BJP grabbed 54.15 % vote share in 2014 in border areas, up from 20.6 % in the 2008 and 19.2% in 2002 state polls. In Hira Nagar, Chamb and Billawar constituencies, the party polled 69.2%, 60.5% and 58.3% votes, respectively. That BJP won more than 30% vote share in the Muslim-majority constituencies of Jammu province, at Doda-one of the seven Muslim-dominated constituencies in the province, its candidate Shakti Raj won with 24,572 votes up from 2,756 votes in 2008.
However, Kashmir valley remained untouchable for BJP as all its 34 candidates except one lost their deposits. North Kashmir, for BJP has been a tough frontier to breach, the region being a hotbed of militancy. BJP did not even field a candidate in half the constituencies in 2014. Its vote share in some other constituencies like Karnah, Lolab and Uri remained same as compared to the 2008 election. BJP’s South Kashmir story was no different though it performed somewhat better as the party had not fielded any candidates in one-third of the constituencies in 2008 but six years later, they not only contested in all barring one but this time also it could garner mere 1500 votes in 11 constituencies. Central Kashmir also remained out of reach for BJP in 2014 polls as there also in constituencies like Chadoora, Khan Saheb and Eidgah, the BJP did not even field any candidates. BJP however managed to raise their vote share substantially in some of the constituencies in the heart of Srinagar. Much of this was due to the postal votes which comprised large number of migrant votes of KPs who live in other parts of the country. Habba Kadal in Srinagar gave BJP the highest vote share in the valley, BJP’s candidate Moti Koul, was the only one who managed to save his deposit by polling 2,596 votes in the constituency which recorded only 21% voter turnout. Initially, Koul was also under the threat of losing his security deposit till the migrant votes were counted, which propelled him from seventh position to the runners-up and ultimately lost to Shamima Firdous of NC by a margin of over 2,000 votes.
In Ladakh also story of BJP was no different as it expected victory in at least two assembly seats, especially in the Buddhist-dominated district of Leh as large gatherings at PM Modi’s rally in Leh and Kargil on August 12, 2014 had their expectations rolling. But Congress swept three of the four constituencies. Practically BJP has won not a single seat in Kashmir till date, in fact, it could not even reach anywhere near the finish line in any constituency. The BJP has been drawing blank in almost all elections, from municipal level polls to Parliamentary elections, in a region where its workers have put in nearly 30 years of their lives for the party and a claim of more than 7 lakh party workers though BJP did manage to win few municipal councils in the valley and some block development chairpersons in the absence of Kashmir centric parties NC and PDP who boycotted the polls along with boycott call from separatists. Sofi Yusuf, a police constable, who left his job to join BJP in 1996, became first legislator of BJP from Kashmir in March 2015 winning unopposed for Legislative Council.
But BJP seems to have lost plot after 2014 assembly elections. First AoA with PDP, less said the better it will be, lost inertia totally till withdrawal from coalition after wasting more than three and half years and got jolted when Pulwama terrorist attack happened, realising to take head on terrorism is the only best counter terrorism policy. With allegations of efforts to poach opposition MLAs to form government on its own, BJP was caught complacent enough when all three opposition parties PDP, NC and Congress came together to claim the formation of state government and Governor SP Malik had to dissolve the assembly in the din of night to save the situation. Icing on the cake came when ‘Iron Man Amit Shah’ took charge of HMO and result was abrogation of Article 370 and 35A, bifurcating state of Jammu and Kashmir into two UTs and detention of almost all pro Pakistan leaders/separatists in one go. Balloon of separatism got punctured with severe damage to backbone of terrorism. But after countrywide CAA protests it seems BJP’s Musharraf lobby has got active once again with HM Amit Shah practically absent from action scene. BJP seems to be in reconciliatory mode as release of Omar, Farooq and others except Mehbooba is a clear indication of change in strategy. Despite clear laws PDP leader and cousin of Mehbooba Mufti, Sajad Hussain Mufti IFS has been reinstated to the UT of Ladakh and further there are indicators in public domain that IAS Shah Faisal will also be allowed to join back duties once again , defying all logics.
Seven heads of Jammu and Kashmir in six years leaves much to answer in this strategic area. From Omar to Mufti to Vohra to Mehbooba to Vohra to Malik to Murmu to now Sinha and the search is still on. Least job opportunities, no industry, corruption, land jihad, no return of KPs along with much opposed delimitation based on allegedly fudged 2011 census favouring Kashmir, virtually stalled development projects of its Jammu constituency, burden of toll plazas and liquor bars, no tourism for last three years due to different reasons Jammu has been virtually reduced to Pathankot which survived due to its proximity with Himachal, but what is future of Jammu no one knows. Instead of searching and implement remedial measures BJP is in denial as well as TINA mode. One fails to understand what the hurry is, delimitation exercise can be deferred till 2021 census unless a deal has been struck or BJP has already decided something. Gupkar declaration of six parties clearly shows the frustration level of opposition, tire and frustrate them further as they are no more relevant in Kashmir politics. Time is to concentrate on development of region under GoI, deliver the fruits of integration with India. Earlier olive branch to Sajjad Lone, now Shah Faisal, Altaf Bukhari, Apni party list is getting endless and not taken lightly by Jammu region. Musical game of chairs is still on as Ram Madhav, Chanakya of BJP for Jammu and Kashmir, is knocking at the doors of ex MLAs of NC and PDP, even ready to go to their home but getting snubbed. Who will be next on musical chair, leave alone public, answer for this even BJP does not know?
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