B L Saraf
The Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC) Kargil election result is before us. It repeats the pattern of 2018. Having won 12 seats out of 26, the National Conference (NC) emerges out a party almost sufficient to rule the LAHDC. With its ally Congress (INC) securing 10 seats the INDIA has truly romped home. BJP has won two seats. Among the looser in the BJP camp is Haji Ali, its Chairman candidate, who at one time was the Chairman of now abolished J&K Legislative Council.
Kargil is a tiny place, normally, too remote to be taken note of any political development, except for the one which impinges up on defense calculations. But located as it is in that area of the country -till recently having been part of Jammu and Kashmir – and whose macro and micro management is carried out directly by the Central Ministry of Home Affairs-with Prime Minister personal monitoring it regularly since August the 5th, 2019 – Kargil’s latest political development could throw up certain indicators which a keen observer of the country’s political climate will find worth an analysis. These indictors have a potential to forecast upcoming political whether in Jammu and Kashmir.
The foremost take away from the Kargil result is that the NC – being firmly rooted in Jammu and Kashmir – is there to stay in Ladakh, too. Many attempts were made to deny the party a political space in this Kargil election by refusing it the accredited election symbol of Plough ,which it ultimately got thanks to the Judicial intervention at the national level. Omar Abdullah, who himself led the Kargil campaign, has cemented his position as a true inheritor of the NC legacy.
For the Congress Party Kargil electoral victory, coming rather soon after it gained power in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh, is a matter of great satisfaction. It is an endorsement of sorts for the leadership of Rahul Gandhi who in summer spent good time in Ladakh as continuation of his Bharat Jodo Yatra. These electoral victories will certainly rejuvenate the sagging morale of Congress party and its leadership which may stand them in a good stead at the time when preparations for 2024 Lok Sabha election are afoot. That given a little bit of more effort, at the ground level, much of its lost political space can be salvaged. Rahul will have do something more than an occasional visit to a way side motor workshop or wear a railway coolie uniform with a wheeled baggage on head.
By reposing faith in the National (NC) and (INC) this result gives hope to many Indians that basic fundamentals of the Idea of India cherished by the visionary leaders of freedom struggle are well founded to withstand the stormy weather. Today, we live in a highly polarized world where societies stand riven apart on sectarian considerations and people look at one another with fear and suspicion. Therefore, any campaign undertaken by anyone to overcome the feeling of insecurity which bears fruit , reinforces inter- societal and inter- communal bond among the people who live in India is welcome. ‘Nationalism’ and the sectarian rhetoric can be hyped to a limit where after it becomes a story of diminishing returns: that ‘local’ has preference over ‘national’ when it comes to the real business of providing bread, butter and the shelter.
The BJP need to understand that in politics emotions do play a part but they work only up to a point, and in the long run matters of bread and butter influence a voter’s choice. True, the elections in states are fought on local issues so the electoral reversal should not be seen as a reflection on working of the Central Government. But then BJP doesn’t shy away from interjecting national issues even to a municipal election. Here, abrogation of Art370 was projected as a panacea for all ‘ills’ that, according to the BJP, ailed J&K, Ladakh including. The party should not rest contended that its vote share has increased in Kargil. BJP knows it better that in real politics seats won in a legislature matter more than the votes polled. In a political game moral victory is no substitute for a real victory.
Another take away from these results is that the ‘Kings Parties”, created to manage timely situations, have no future in the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir
For the people in J&K Kargil election throws up many possibilities: that something can be retrieved from the tremor of August the 5th, 2019. It may add to the local politician’s confidence that this constitutional tinkering didn’t help much BJP in last BDC elections which were held soon after 5th Aug 2019. That BJP can be challenged successfully on a local political turf, where PM Modi too may not be able to pull it up. NC and PDP have potential to reclaim major part of the political ground lost in the wake of neutralization of Art 370. They have to put their house in order and must reach out to the people -afresh, address their real issues of bread and butter and not waste time and energy in pampering to the emotive issues. People deserve better life, regard for their sensitivities and a say in the State Government which, to some extent, election may provide them with.
We witness a strange scenario unfolding, mainly, in Kashmir where a routine policy or administrative event is marked with lavishness associated with the Royalty. We see whole Valley dazzling with high voltage lights at the time when people in J&K are feeling the power cut pinch. The spectacle contrasts sharply with what prevails on the ground. The show is parade to masquerade normalcy of sorts in the Valley which, on all accounts , is still illusive. Deadly encounters of the terrorists with the security forces have become order of the day across length and breadth of the UT, where in a number of high ranking security personal have got martyred. A recent media report paints a dismal scenario enough to negate the impression that peace prevails in Kashmir. Indian Express report of October, 4 reveals that the spurt in terror incidents witnessed in recent times has prompted security forces to re assess counter – terror strategy in J&K.
We have seen such ‘ festivals ‘ and fanfare in the past also. A leaf seems to have been borrowed from the book written by former Prime Minister of the state, Late Bakhshi Gulam Mohammd, who mastered the art to the hilt. Round the year he went places vigorously with his ‘Jashen e Kashmir’ program, just to show everything was normal in Jammu & Kashmir when, in fact, situation had taken a turn to the worst in the wake of Sheikh Abdullah’s dethroning, in 1953. It took just one unfortunate event, in the beginning of 1964, to dismantle the decade old ‘ managed festivity’ and make ground reality dawn up on the political and administrative actors who, then, mattered most in Srinagar and New Delhi.
It is good that politicians in J&K are eager for elections. While as Kargil result may give them hope but there is a fillip side too. Having seen what happened to its poll prospects in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka now nearer home will BJP top brass risk an unfavorable poll result in J&K- particularly in Kashmir? That too after it has exorcised the “ghost of Art 370′. By the way, upcoming assembly election results of MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh etc need be watched.
(The author is Former Principal District & Sessions Judge)
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