Anil Anand
All available indications suggest the Karnataka Assembly elections-2018 to be a pot-boiler with two main contenders Congress and the BJP at each other’s throat and the maverick former Prime Minister H D Devegowda-led Janata Dal (s) waiting in the wings, as usual, to be at least in a situation to become indispensible in the act of any government formation, if the verdict is a split one.
This is too simple an explanation which is being forwarded by political analysts and poll watchers but the current situation has the potential of breaking this photocopy image which the Karnataka- political has acquired ever since the emergence of Devegowda phenomenon. There are ominous signs more for BJP than Congress and there are moments of anxiety in equal terms for both the parties. Devegowda is lucky in these respects as the ominous sign and anxiety factors have no bearings on his electoral calculus. The reason being that he relies more on his own limited caste combinations which on occasions, as in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, got swept by the political waves of the time.
So at best Devegowda factor has importance but more in the post-poll scenario depending on how the two main parties Congress and BJP perform at the hustings, and of course the number of seats JD(s) wins. How are the ominous sign factors favouring or affecting either of the two?
First the ominous signs! The two glaring ominous signs staring BJP in the face are the last moment denial of mandate to the party’s chief ministerial candidate B S Yeddyurappa’s son Vijayendra from Varuna constituency that led to angry party workers hitting the street but a visibly disturbed CM- hopeful claiming happiness on this development. This sudden development was followed by Vijayendra being made state general secretary of Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, BJP’s youth wing.
The seriousness of this ominous sign could be gauged from the manner in which the BJP headed by two strongmen Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the party chief Amit Shah, seemed in a hurry to try and keep Yeddyurappa in a good humour lest he fell out in the midst of the elections. Not only the sudden sop in the form of a not too significant post for his son, but the manner in which the Twitter handle of state BJP lost no time in lauding and praising Vijayendra and that how his presence will greatly boost the party cadre and strength in the Old Maysuru region. It made the episode look more ominous than many BJP detractors would have thought.
Yeddyurappa’s son was expected to fight against Congress chief minister Siddaramaiah’s son Yathindra for the Varuna constituency. But BJP’s decision to deny ticket to Vijayendra robbed the elections of a star-sons contest.
It is still not clear as to why was he was denied the ticket. Was it done by the anti-Yeddyurappa lobby headed by Parliamentary Affairs Minister Anant Kumar, to clip his wings? Or did Yeddyurappa read some writing on the wall and developed cold feet? The answers to these questions are still to come but it seems, as of today, the outcome is the mixture of two.
Close on the heels of this the denial of a ticket to Shobha Karandlaje, a close confidant Yeddyurappa, to contest from Yeshwanthpur in Bengaluru, has brought cheer to many leaders including Anant Kumar, MP from Bengluru, who feared she could be a potential CM candidate at some point and in the process jeopardising their own chances.
Question arises how could any party, particularly BJP of 21st genre, believing in winning elections and forming government at any cost, repeatedly nudge its own chief ministerial candidate the wrong way. This leads one to believe that such decisions could not have been taken by the BJP high command without Yeddyurappa being on board. So the strong pointer towards the ominous sign!
These developments are also reflective of inner dissensions within the state BJP. These simmers are getting manifested in attempts to corner Yeddyurappa.
The one worthy ominous sign emerging from Congress camp, which otherwise and surprisingly has portrayed a picture of unity, is Siddaramaiah ultimately deciding to contest election from two constituencies after initial bravado and show of confidence. This is a different matter that he cited local party leaders’ pressure that guided him to file nomination papers from Badami segment in north Karnataka.
The denial of ticket to Yeddyurappa’s son or his decision to “stay away” from the contest at the last moment had given Congress a handle to hit back. The party has described this as signs of panic in BJP and its leader Yeddyurappa’s camp.
On the other hand Siddaramaiah’s decision to contest from a second constituency as well is being described by the rival BJP as an ominous sign of Congress losing the plot.
These definitely are ominous signs which could provide psychological power to rival sides to hit at each other. In comparison Yeddyurappa is on a weaker wicket on this psychological war front than Siddaramaiah.
In the ultimate scheme of things the victor would be the one who has better caste engineering than the other. Siddaramaiah’s master-stroke in focusing on BJP’s tried and trusted Lingayata vote bank has definitely unnerved the saffron party. Even a division in this support base could do immense harm to BJP. Lingayats constitute nearly 10 per cent (as per 2011census) of Karnataka’s population.
The caste table is headed by Scheduled Castes (18 per cent), Vokkaligas (nearly 9 per cent), Scheduled Tribes (7 per cent), Kurubas (seven per cent) and Brahmins (2.1 per cent). The second biggest religious group is Muslims (12.5 per cent).
Apart from his own community Vokkaligas, Devegowda is also eyeing a slice of the Muslim and SC/ST voters which could be a worrying factor for Congress. The BJP has more to worry as it is finding it hard to convince the SC/ST and Muslims to come to their fold as was the case in 2014 elections.
The one factor that is still being awaited to show its prowess on ground is Prime Minister Narendra Modi. With just more than a fortnight left for polling, he is still to campaign in the state. It will also be a test case for his charisma which many of his detractors feel is on the wane particularly due to non-fulfilment of series of promises that he made during his Lok Sabha poll campaign.
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