The LAC hurdle

Col J P Singh, Retd
Sino-Indian relations have been and are accident prone. The future lies in the past. Those who have lived through ignominious 1962 Sino-Indian War know it well. India and China are ancient neighbours and traditional friends. But misconceptions about each other keep on increasing as both sides try to come closer. India is ever suspicious of Chinese military intentions and jealous of its growth. Our relationship with China is rooted in the geopolitics. Our borders are unresolved. China does not accept McMahon Line as international boundary. New Delhi blames China of occupying 38,000 sq kms of Indian territory while Beijing lays claims over 90,000 sq kms of land in Arunachal Pradesh. This border issue led to 1962 war after which frequent cross border intrusions continue. China calls Arunachal as Lower Tibet and considers J&K as disputed territory. Hence there are many hurdles to cross before reaching Beijing, the capital of China. 1962 is one such. Pakistan, Tibet, Japan, US and Vietnam also come on the way. But the McMahon Line is the ultimate.
China today is world’s most populous and second largest country with a population of over 1.35 billion. It is an undisputed regional power in Asia and a potential super power. It is world’s largest importer and exporter of goods. It is world’s fastest growing and second largest economy. It is a nuclear power state with largest standing army in the world. China’s defence budget is $ 132 Billions, alarmingly four times more than India. These are the other hurdles for India in the bilateral relationship. To overcome them India has to walk past them in such an astute diplomatic manner that no lightning and thunders occur on the McMahon Line.
During his China visit in 1957, Indian Vice President S. Radhakrishnan had told Chairman Mao-Tse-Tung that if India and China stood together, the world will take notice of it, to which Mao had replied, ‘if India and China stood together for 20 years, no one will be able to make them go apart’. But that was not to happen. In the recent past, when Chinese president Xi Jinping met Indian premier Narendra Modi during BRICS Summit, he lauded that meeting by saying “when China and India meet, the world watches”. These statements are an acknowledgement of India as an important global player. To further cement relations Xi visited India from 17 to 19 September 2014 which calls for review of the relationship, especially because of large PLA military transgression in Ladakh during his visit. The positivity from top leaders meeting twice this year and alarming negativity from Ladakh incursion suggests Chinese continuous blow hot – blow cold in relationship between the two Asian neighbours.
Despite suspicions, president Xi’s recent visit is seen as a historic opportunity for both sides to rediscover each other. Narendra Modi is a popular, powerful and a charismatic Indian leader. President Xi is the most powerful leader of China being the party general secretary and chairman of the military commission. He is seen as man of peace and a reformist. Hence both leaders can work closely should China be genuinely interested in Indian partnership in global peace and development.
The summit that started on a promising note at the banks of Sabarmati was shadowed by PLA incursions in Ladakh. It was not an accident. It was a planned operation. It took the sheen off otherwise much hyped visit. It was learnt that on being told of the incursion, Xi ordered pull back. Directions of President Xi to PLA on his return to Beijing ‘to be loyal and obey orders’ is an indication of his strong disapproval of PLA’s incursion. But asking PLA ‘to be battle ready for winning a regional war’ is perhaps to put military pressure to keep India away from Japan. It is clear that China will do everything to keep India away from Japan and Vietnam including intimidation. ‘Win a war without actually waging it, is Sun Tzu’s military doctrine’. PLA is known for appearing in large numbers to scare the opponent. But this time India demolished this bogey by confronting them with greater numbers & strength for forcing their move back to pre 1st September location.
Xi called upon India to be partner in the journey of peaceful development of the region. He assured support to India’s bigger role in world affairs. China has accepted to build a high speed corridor which Indian Railways will identify. He disclosed his vision of China supported Land and Maritime Silk route which he said will boost regional development and invited India to be partner in its development. Xi also pushed China-India-Bangladesh-Myanmar corridor which India accepts in principle but is wary of Silk Route whereas Sri Lanka and Maldives have accepted it. He offered to send 5000 Chinese language teachers to South Asia in next five years to promote Chinese language. But all that does not stand to realism because of Chinese adverse comments on India’s offer of 100 million dollars credit to Vietnam for the purchase of Patrol Boats for South China Sea. Modi’s Japan visit and President’s Vietnam visit have irked China.
During Rajiv Gnadhi’s visit to Beijing in December 1988, a working group was established to resolve boundary dispute. Later an agreement was signed to maintain peace and tranquillity on the LAC. The fact that borders are by and large tranquil since decades is his gift. It is now for Xi to gift us a settled border. Frequent civil and military incursions in large numbers in Indian territory was seriously raised by Modi. He reiterated that existing agreement on peace and tranquillity on the borders must be respected. He stressed upon urgency to resume the stalled process of demarcation of LAC to which Xi responded by saying that ‘since the border is yet to be demarcated, sometimes there may be certain incidents’ and added that China is determined to work with India through friendly consultations to settle the boundary question at an early date. While Modi was candid on LAC issue, Xi was lukewarm. It suggests that Beijing may like to retain unresolved LAC status quo to use it as lever to exert pressure on India. Hence more the things seem to change, more they remain the same.
Let us be clear that Chinese diplomacy goes hand in hand with strategy and tactics. They do not believe in quick fixes. They are shrewd practitioner of realpolitik. Deep study and patience guides their foreign policy. Their military thinking is based on Sun Tzu’s treatise, ‘The Art of War’. With an opponent they follow ‘combative co-existence’ which implies manoeuvring the opponent into weakness while building own strength. Hence India should take on Chinese aggressive postures on the LAC equally aggressively. Premier Modi will delude himself if he expects an early resolution of border dispute. He too will have to follow Mao-Tse-Tung’s dictum ie ‘when necessary bend like a Willow, when necessary stand unbending like an Oak’. Negotiations are the ultimate means of disputes resolution. Although Chinese don’t recognise McMahon Line but do agree with our views that the boundary issue must be resolved. While India should make all efforts to settle the border issue, New Delhi should build a matching military strength. For those who still want to quibble Modi despite historic hurdles, PLA incursion and lesser than expected investments are good enough to call Xi’s visit a failure.
20 days after the summit meeting, it is difficult for analysts to judge China either friend or foe. I would analyse it by the old saying ‘hold your friends close and the enemies closer’. Let Hindi Chini be Bhai-Bhai and India China do Buy-Buy while the hurdles are being negotiated by Modi.

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