On The spot
Tavleen Singh
If there is one trait that most of us political pundit types share it is the joy we get in being able to say: I told you so. And, as someone who has been predicting for more than a year that Narendra Modi could make enough difference to the BJP’s campaign to be able to take the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) beyond 230 seats I am in a very ‘I told you so’ mood. The first time I made this prediction publicly was at an Express Adda in Mumbai where the chief guest was Sachin Pilot and the moderator was Shekhar Gupta. This ‘adda’ was at the Olive restaurant at the Race Course and after everyone left I joined the Minister, Shekhar and some of his friends for dinner in the restaurant. Naturally, all conversation was about politics and the next Lok Sabha election and I said that I thought Modi would make a huge difference to the BJP’s otherwise lackluster image. To this Shekhar told the minister that he should pay attention to what I was saying because in these matters I had quite a good record. He reminded me that when we were in Gwalior together during the 1984 election I was the only one who predicted that Madhavrao Scindia would defeat Atal Bihari Vajpayee. And, so he did.
If you think by now that this column is beginning to take on an annoyingly boastful note forgive me. Its just that I am relishing my ‘told you so’ moment because when I first started saying that Narendra Modi could be India’s next prime minister I was attacked by most of my colleagues for having sold my soul to Hindutva. Charges of being prejudiced and ‘anti-Muslim’ were flung at me not just verbally but in print. Well-known ‘secular’ magazines took to parodying my columns and accusing me of being a publicist for Modi. The attacks have become more vicious as the election draws near and come these days most often from dedicated sycophants of the Gandhi family. This is because for the first time ever there are signs that India’s most famous and resilient political Dynasty could be in its last days. Wiser and more intelligent members of the Congress Party admit privately that Rahul Gandhi has not shown the ability to win elections that they hoped he would and that by 2019 he could have lost all chances of leading the party that has been a private limited company since the time of Indira Gandhi.
The reason why the chairman of the board, Sonia Gandhi, has in recent days become more visible on the campaign trail is because there is real panic now among the shareholders. And, even among those who are not obvious shareholders. She has been not just a good chairman and managing direction of Congress Pvt. Ltd. but has shown real skills at controlling the BJP. She had excellent relations with Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his family when he was prime minister and has continued to have excellent relations with Lal Krishan Advani and Sushma Swaraj.
As a result the BJP has in the past decade failed miserably in its role as the principal opposition party in the Lok Sabha. This is one reason why it was so easy just before the last general election for the Prime Minister to release funds in bank accounts in London that belonged to Sonia Gandhi’s ex-best friend, Ottavio Quattrocchi. They had been blocked for several years by the Indian government on the suspicion that the money in them belonged to the people of India. What Sonia Gandhi is most afraid of is that a Government led by Modi could start reopening old cases and reexamining what really happened in the Bofors deal. Where did the bribe money really go? And, why did some of it end up in the bank accounts of a fertilizer salesman and his wife, Maria, who had nothing to do with the armaments business? If these questions has been seriously asked under the Vajpayee government the truth about the Bofors bribes would have been revealed long ago. If questions start to be asked under a Modi government it could make life very difficult for her and her children.
So she is campaigning furiously across the country and her slipper carriers and sycophants are busy denouncing the polls as ‘rubbish’ every chance they get. Senior ministers these days take time off from campaigning to declare that Narendra Modi ‘will never be prime minister’ and that he has ‘serious character flaws’. Recent polls have made them speak even more aggressively because they all seem to indicate that the average Indian voter wants Modi to become prime minister. And, nearly all agree that the NDA this time will get beyond 230 seats and that Congress will be lucky if it gets more than 100.
If Indian polls can be charged with being ‘fixed’ it is harder to make the same charges against foreign polls so last week’s revelations by the Pew Research Survey has sent deep shock waves through Congress ranks. This Washington based company says that 78% of Indians want Modi as prime minister compared with only 50% who want Rahul. Even Anna Hazare at 69% and the prime minister at 52% did better than the heir to the Dynasty. This poll found that 70% of Indians were dissatisfied with the direction that India had taken in the past decade. Sonia Gandhi had even lower approval ratings than her son.
So is it the end of the road for the Dynasty? Is this the last election in which the Nehru-Gandhi family will be a major factor? Emboldened by my recent success in the predictions business I am going to answer both questions. I think it is. Of course there may come a time when someone with the name Gandhi-Vadra emerges on the political landscape and of course it is possible that Rahul Gandhi will produce an heir who in a couple of decades will try and reclaim the country that the Dynasty has come to think of as its inheritance but that is too far in the future to merit even mild speculation. So for the moment I think it is safe to predict that one of the most significant aspects of this Lok Sabha election is that it brings with it the end of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. It is a historic moment because it is hard to think of a political dynasty in any other democratic country that has exercised so much power for so long.
Follow our WhatsApp channel