By Girish Linganna
Recent news about Russia testing new space technology has made countries all over the world worried. The future of warfare is expected to involve autonomous weapons, robots, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Another crucial aspect that has come up is the competition for control over space. Satellites in orbit offer various important functions for combat systems on Earth, such as GPS navigation for weapons and soldiers, monitoring enemy activities, and command and control operations. Attacking or hindering these satellites can significantly impact military effectiveness on the ground.
Earlier this month, Michael R. Turner, who leads the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, stated that a new advancement in space technology by Russia is becoming a significant threat to national security.
The following day, John Kirby, a spokesperson for the US National Security Council, confirmed that the information had been provided to the US Intelligence Committee and would also be shared with other members of Congress.
President Joe Biden was informed about the situation earlier and has instructed his National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, to update top lawmakers on the matter. The spokesperson for the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, brushed off the concerns, calling them a “nasty lie” and a strategy by the White House to convince US politicians to allocate more funds for Ukraine to oppose Russia.
Although specific details have not been disclosed, there is speculation that this ability could significantly threaten US intelligence and communication satellites through the use of a nuclear weapon. If utilized, this weapon has the potential to disrupt US communication, space surveillance, and military command and control infrastructures. However, it’s improbable that Russia would deploy a nuclear warhead in space. The discussions might instead be focusing on a Russian nuclear-powered device capable of disabling, jamming, or severely damaging the electronic components of US satellites, or emitting an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) capable of wiping out the electronics of all satellites within a specific vicinity.
Several leading space exploration countries, including Russia, have explored various methods for disabling satellites. These techniques include using missiles launched from the ground to eliminate satellites in orbit, as well as employing nuclear and directed energy technologies for disruption. In 2021, Russia conducted a test by launching a missile from the Earth to demolish one of its defunct satellites. Similarly, India carried out a comparable test in 2019.
A nuclear detonation in space would not differentiate between satellites, potentially destroying those belonging to Russia as well. Additionally, deploying a nuclear weapon in space would breach the 1967 Outer Space Treaty of the United Nations, which prohibits nations from orbiting the Earth with objects equipped with nuclear arms or any other types of weapons of mass destruction.
Nations have developed various methods to neutralize enemy satellites. Among these is the co-orbital anti-satellite (ASAT) system, which can vary widely in its approach, including deploying a small satellite that travels close to a target satellite before being detonated. Another strategy involves employing a robotic arm to either capture or unbalance the intended satellite.
Furthermore, targeted satellites can be compromised using high-powered lasers and microwaves. Defense News, a US publication, reported in 2006 that China had employed a ground-based laser to temporarily impair the vision of a US optical surveillance satellite on multiple occasions, effectively “dazzling” or “disorienting” it. The Chinese have confirmed that in 2005, they successfully conducted an experiment that involved using a ground-based laser weapon to impair the vision of a satellite. Discussions in Chinese military publications have included topics on lasers mounted on airplanes and satellites. There are also conversations about the development of microwave weapons systems intended for use on ships, which could potentially be adapted for space applications.
The advancement by Russia likely comes in response to Ukraine’s use of Starlink satellites, which aimed to circumvent Russian attempts to disrupt Ukrainian communication systems. Moreover, Starlink has offered the crucial capability to disseminate information from a variety of sources, including commercial satellite imagery and confidential intelligence from Western countries. In 2023, the conflict transitioned into an attrition phase, where Ukraine might have held an algorithmic edge but faced a shortage of sufficient artillery ammunition.
In the context above, “algorithmic edge” refers to Ukraine’s advantage in using advanced computing and algorithms to enhance decision-making, intelligence gathering, and operational efficiency. This technological leverage likely improved their strategic planning and tactical responses, despite their limitations in physical resources such as artillery ammunition.
The Starlink network, consisting of thousands of satellites, provides robustness against conventional anti-satellite weaponry, including ASAT missiles and directed energy weapons. However, a nuclear explosion in space has the potential to incapacitate hundreds, if not thousands, of these satellites. Such a detonation would indiscriminately affect both friendly and enemy satellites, posing a risk that Russia could inadvertently damage its own satellites, as well as those belonging to nations not engaged in the conflict.
The establishment of the US Space Force in 2019 was driven by vulnerabilities in space, particularly due to the advancements China and Russia had made in targeting satellite-based US communications systems, such as GPS, and their capabilities in missile launch detection. These capabilities encompass methods such as satellite jamming, intercepting satellite transmissions, temporarily impairing their functionality, destroying them, and altering their orbital paths through the use of satellites equipped with robotic arms.
The New York Times has reported that the United States has been actively engaged in efforts to mitigate these threats for a considerable period. Following reports of a purported or alleged Russian space weapon, the United States deployed a prototype missile tracking system into orbit. This move was part of a strategy called the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, which seeks to cover the Lower Earth Orbit (LEO) with hundreds of smaller, more cost-effective satellites, arranged in formations akin to the Starlink constellation. This system would remain functional even if many of its satellites were eliminated.
A report indicates that Russia has significantly disrupted GPS satellite signals in Ukraine to hinder drone activities, yet it has not employed its capabilities to impair satellites’ functionality, despite having the technology to do so. In a UN address in October 2022, a Russian diplomat cautioned that commercial satellites might be considered valid military targets, suggesting that such “quasi-civilian infrastructure” could be subject to legitimate retaliatory actions.
This statement from Russian diplomat, implies that commercial satellites, despite their civilian applications, could be viewed and treated as military assets during conflicts. This perspective suggests that in the event of hostilities, these satellites, due to their potential strategic use or importance, might be targeted and attacked as part of military operations or in retaliation, blurring the lines between civilian and military targets.
The concern regarding Russian activities is directly relevant to India, which relies on satellites for its communication, surveillance, and navigation needs. Reports indicate that the United States has directed its officials to engage in talks with Russia regarding this matter and has also approached India and China, seeking their assistance in persuading Moscow to refrain from deploying such weapons, according to the Observer Research Foundation, an Indian research institute. (IPA Service
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