Amit Kushari
BJP has made a big inroad into a non Hindi speaking state like Assam which is located in the extreme North East of India. This is indeed very creditable and praiseworthy for a party like BJP which is usually perceived as a political party for people who speak as their mother tongue Hindi or any language closely allied with Hindi…like Punjabi, Gujrati, Marathi. Not that this is for the first time in history….earlier also BJP had formed a government in Karnataka which speaks a Dravidian language. However, the victory in Assam is very significant because Assam has a very big , 35% concentration of Muslims and everybody knows that Muslims usually vote for such candidates who have the highest chance to defeat the BJP. To carve out a majority of seats in the Assembly from only 65% of the population is awe inspiring and the credit for this will naturally go to PM Modi, Amit Shah and all those policy planners who had finalised strategies with the other two local parties of Assam, the Ahom Gana Parishad and the Bodo Peoples Front. The consolidation of these three parties, BJP, AGP and BPF made decision making much easier for the Assamese Hindus and 7 out of 10 of them voted for this BJP+ combination. Another important factor was that BJP had projected Mr. Sonowal as the CM candidate and so the people had no confusion about who to vote for. The credit for BJP’s victory also goes to the mother son duo in the Congress who could not take correct political decisions. They did not agree to shift the octogenarian CM, Tarun Gogoi who had completed 15 years in office and the people must have got tired of him although he was a popular leader. Also they failed to make a seat understanding with AIUDF to prevent a split of the Muslim votes
BJP’s performance in the other four states was less than mediocre, if not disappointing. In Tamil Nadu it failed to win a single seat, in Kerala it won one seat only and in Bengal only 3 seats, although BJP had put up candidates in each and every seat. Although they tried so hard they could get only 12% votes in Kerala– and in West Bengal, after fighting in 294 seats, their vote percentage came down from 17% to 10% only. This is not a good sign at all and the policy makers in BJP need to worry about this. The real causes for this decline of BJP need to be found out. If the real causes are not found out and rectified BJP will start going down hill starting from Punjab and UP elections next year. BJP leaders should not be too enthusiastic about the victory in Assam, because the situation in Assam is exceptional. The Hindus of Assam always felt suffocated by Bangladeshi Muslim immigrants and the Congress Government did little for them because they always had to appease Muslims for their existence. In other states, BJP will be .judged by the performance of the Central Government in the last two years. PM Modi has not been able to fulfil most of his promises to the people. Inflation could not be controlled and black money could not be brought back. The petrol and diesel prices are increasing although in the world market the fuel prices are at a record low. The Government is apparently collecting money for so called economic development, taxing the common man. Numerous taxes have been imposed on the common man and they are not happy with the Central Government. People are saying that the NDA Government at the Centre is using the common man as an ATM card. Whenever they need money they squeeze the common man. The big leaders in BJP must remember that the Boyle’s Law of Physics applies in public life also. If pressure is increased, volume shrinks to that extent. If taxation pressure is increased on the people, the electoral volume i.e. the number of votes of the ruling party will be diminished proportionately. If taxes are doubled the number of votes would be halved….that is Boyle’s Law. All popular leaders like Jayalalitha, Mamata, Kejriwal, Nitish Kumar are aware of the Boyle’s Law and that is why they are so successful in the electoral wars. They know that they have to reduce taxes and increase subsidies. Worrying too much about long term economic developments and national economy doesn’t pay in our system of politics. One has to move very slowly and cautiously in taxing the public so that they do not even realise that they are being taxed. The leaders must realise that they can do something good for the country only if their Government survives and escapes the wrath of the people.
On the other hand the Congress must take all steps to prevent the BJP and the AAP from dislodging them in the Hindi speaking areas. They should not look like a dynastic party and should make immediate changes at the top levels. Already some good signals for the Congress have started coming from Municipal elections in Gujrat and Delhi. These good signals are coming for the Congress primarily because of the wrong policies of the Centre’s Finance ministry. The Congress as well as the Aam Aadmi party should grab this opportunity and highlight BJP’s failures.
(The author is former Financial Commissioner, J&K)
Feedback to the author at 09748635185 or amitkus@hotmail.com
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