Sharda Lal
With the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir set to go in for its long-awaited and maiden Assembly elections in September 2024, the most important concern before the people, particularly in Jammu region, is the spurt in incidents of terror and militant attacks on the security forces and civilians during the last eight months. People will definitely want a government that is capable of effectively preventing and crushing terrorism and militancy.
As the atmosphere in the UT is significantly charged along partisan lines in favour of and against the steps taken by the NDA/BJP led Central Government during August to October 2019, particularly with reference to reorganisation of the earlier State of Jammu and Kashmir, besides the drastic amendments in Article 370 of the Indian Constitution that no doubt, gave special privileges to the original residents of Jammu and Kashmir, but allegedly pampered the secessionist forces also, the voter turnout this time is therefore likely to be even greater from both the sides, than the one recorded during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Moreover, an effective control by the security forces over the frequent incidents of militancy, stone pelting by mobs, strikes and hartals in Kashmir on the call of secessionists etc., besides introduction of various development schemes and programmes by the Union Government and UT Government during the past 4 years, have also motivated and mobilised the people to pronouncedly choose ballots over bullets.
A sizable section of the population feels the need for an elected government for some breathing space, as the Elections may allow them to directly address their day-to-day issues with local representatives.
Political leaders too want to have their say in the matters of administration and governance and therefore, are advocating for an elected government in Jammu and Kashmir. Because of the political vacuum over the past six years they prefer an elected administration over bureaucratic control.
Restoring statehood at the earliest is being projected as a big issue for non-BJP/non-NDA parties, but BJP/NDA want to be seen as giving priority to national interests, while safeguarding the overall interests of the common man in J&K.
Following the 2022 delimitation process, Jammu and Kashmir now has 114 Assembly seats: 24 for areas in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, 43 in Jammu, and 47 in Kashmir.
During the forthcoming elections, INC, J&K PDP and NC are concerned about the enhanced powers granted by the Centre to the Jammu and Kashmir Lt Governor’s authority over police, public order, civil services, and personnel matters, potentially limiting the Assembly’s powers, but it remains to be seen if the electorate will judge these parties by their own performance on the parameters of safety and security of citizens, peace and development, while they were in power in the state.
Thus, abrogation of Article 370, BJP’s policies, and strategies to counter their influence are expected to remain significant issues in the Assembly election.
Slogans of safeguarding land, identity and resources will remain the crucial eye-catchers, but their real impact will be known after the election results only. People in J&K know that there is no restriction for the resourceful people of J&K to acquire land and property and to enjoy all luxuries outside the UT, but the slogan is still used to hoodwink the gullible and use them aas a votebank.
By the admission of many senior Indian National Congress leaders themselves, by August 2019, the Article 370 was left on the cover of the book only while the inner pages were already torn. But the issue will continue to be raised on a high pitch, only to arouse passions.
Parties will generally focus on securing employment, protecting land and culture, reducing electricity bills, etc., but in Kashmir, these may advocate for the release of imprisoned youth also. Parties will also play with the sentiments and promise skies to the people.
Whereas the national stalwarts and local leaders of BJP and its allies will try their best to convince the electorate about the good things they have done for Jammu and Kashmir during a brief period of 5 to 10 years, the electoral alliance of any sort between the NC, INC, PDP etc is very likely to pose a serious challenge to the BJP.
The greatest contest however will be between the deliverables and achievements and the sentiments and illusions.
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