K B Jandial
With 21-day nationwide lockdown to fight Coronavirus, India has literally come to a standstill. People, living in a vibrant democracy, cherish freedom in many forms including movement form one place to another which stands curtailed; but don’t crib as it is for our good, albeit, survival. This is an extraordinary worldwide existential crisis, not experienced by our generation. This is a testing time that demands patience, compliance of prescribed protocol and support to ward off this deadly infectious disease, declared pandemic by WHO.
People of India, albeit, across the globe were never so scary as they are today, not so even during two world wars, as rightly explained by PM Modi in his first address to the nation. He has rightly brought home the lurking danger over the people by saying that it is spreading very alarmingly. Globally, it took 67 days to infect COVID-19 to first one lakh people, 11days for second lakh and just 4 days for the third lakh. Coronavirus’s geometrical progression with no drug or vaccine to cure is a cause to worry for people even though trials and R&D are claimed to be at advance stage in China and USA. President Trump has allowed Roche Medical Company to undertake trial of the vaccine which is reportedly ready for launch if trials succeed.
According to John Hopkins University data, coronavirus cases across 177 countries have reached 4.80-lakh with 21300 deaths as on March 26 and this number is alarmingly moving upward. The silver lining, however, is recovery of 1.16 lakh persons. Of 3.26 lakh cases still active, only 14797 cases are serious / critical while others have mild conditions. India has 700 positive cases (14 in J&K & 13 in Ladakh) with 16 deaths (one in Kashmir).
The new deadly virus originated in Wuhan, China’s port city & capital of Central Hubei province having 11 million population. Difficult to trust China with its non-transparent system, it revealed this disease to WHO only on 31st December, 2019 when many deaths presumed to have already occurred. Later, the experts shared with WHO the identification of virus, named 2019-nCov that belongs to Coronavirus family that included earlier detected virus, SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) which in 2002 caused 813 deaths worldwide. The new virus was traced to a Wuhan’s seafood market that also sold live animals and caused unusual pneumonia. There are some stories about the outbreak of this virus including one of Wuhan Hospital’s Dr. Li Wenliang who was first to reveal the outbreak of this deadly virus in a chat group that went viral that brought in the Police who reprimanded him for false leak. This Doctor reportedly got infected and passed away.
There are also conspiracy theories also going around and someone mulling to take China to International Court of Justice for damages. One theory hints at its origination at a Chinese Government facility near Wuhan. At least, one video unfolds arrest of three academicians & researchers including one Professor of Harvard University who was getting US congressional funds for research but was found to have received lot of money from China for proscribed research work for China. Two others scholars arrested are Chinese including a researcher for cancer. Could it be a well-planned biological attack?
Be it that, the danger looms large on the world when none of the countries took it seriously. Coronavirus has transcended borders without visa as it took the benefit of fast movement across the globe and “landed” in different countries through “unintended couriers”. Virus has travelled into over 177 countries without knocking at their border posts or immigration desks forcing a global medical emergency.
Italy with 7503 deaths & Spain with 3647 deaths are the more affected than China (3293) with USA following closely. China managed to check this disease by taking extraordinary and draconian steps for 3-month brutal lockdown, forced isolation and surveillance, giving damn to infringements of people’s rights, often heard from Human Rights activists. Being a communist nation, the regime was least bothered about people’s rights and harassment. WHO says that China’s action was unprecedented in public health history. Very few new cases are now coming and all new hospitals set up quickly for such victims have been shut down even though reports of another virus are coming from China.
India cannot impose China type brutal quarantine which perhaps is the only answer. The Govt has done its best and motivating people to follow protocol circulated on print and electronic media to reach the citizens in farthest corner of the country. The advisory is for all segments of population including those who are exposed to the virus like health workers, but the main mantra for the overwhelming majority is “stay home and maintain social distancing.” According to IMRC, social distancing alone can lead to 62% reduction of cases. It is either behave or perish.
While the PM Modi’s call for Janta Curfew on 22 March was a stunning success with the nation expressing their gratitude to the COVID-19 warriors by clapping and beating thalis but there are no dearth of “Covidiot” who continue to violate SOP risking spread to community. The Police had to come heavily on them.
In a to bid to break the chain of transmission, a nationwide lockdown was best option slapped on March 24 by PM. China’s lockdown was for 56 million people that ended this week (Wuhan’s to end on 8th April), India is doing for 130 crore for 21 days. This is world’s biggest ever lockdown in the history of mankind. The developing situation has left PM hardly with any choice, knowing well India’s inadequate health infrastructure and medical professionals on one hand and on the other its huge social and economic cost. But saving human lives has to be the first priority while economy revival can wait.
Transmission rate of a disease is indicated by its Reproductive Number (Ro, also called R-naught or R-zero) which represents the average number of people to whom a single infected person transmits this virus. WHO assessed this Ro at 1.4-2.5 on January 23, 2020 but other studies put it between 3.6-4.0 and 2.24- 3.58. Taking WHO’s conservative Ro, it means that the virus will spread in geometrical progression, 10 positive persons will infect other 14 to 25 persons and 100 will spread it to 140 to 250 persons and its progression would continue. WHO has put Its Mortality Rate at 3.4% and Hospital Mortality Rate at 15% with 2 to 14 days incubation period (time it takes for symptoms to appear). During this period the virus is contagious but patient may or may not show any symptom (asymptomatic transmission). While people of all ages are infected by the coronavirus, older people and those with pre-existing medical conditions of asthma, diabetes & cardiac disease are more vulnerable. According to early estimates by China, about 80% of those who died were over the age of 60, and 75% of them had pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.
The protocol is simple. Since COVID-19 starts with hands, so wash your hands frequently with soap and water or an alcohol-based solution which kills viruses. Cover your nose and mouth with a bent elbow or tissue when you sneeze or cough and prevent spread of virus to people around you through their droplets. Dispose the tissue immediately safely and wash your hands. Avoid touching face, particularly eyes, nose & mouth and thus prevent the virus from entering your body. Hands touch too many surfaces and can quickly pick up virus. Once contaminated, hands can transfer the virus to your face, from where the virus can move inside your body. To avoid social interaction, please stay at least one-metre distance from others and prevent breathing of any respiratory droplets during sneezing or coughing by others. Those having cough or sneeze must stay home, seek medical attention & wear a mask. Staying home, frequent wash hands with soap or use alcohol based sanitizer and social distancing are best “combo-medicine” to ward off this disease.
India’s top medical professionals & administrators like Dr. Naresh Trehan, Dr. Devi Shetty, Dr. Abhay Soi have made useful suggestions for immediate consideration of the Govt. India reportedly has about 1.3 million hospital beds that aren’t sufficient if our 20% population gets affected with COVID-19 and its mortality is directly proportional to ICU beds & healthcare manpower. High mortality in Italy was not mainly due to virus alone but to lack of ICU beds, doctors & nurses. India has 2.3 beds per one lakh citizens against 13 in case of Italy. There is need for creating 2000 ICU beds in every big city in next fortnight & Govt is capable of doing it. Either start manufacturing ventilators locally or import these immediately. Piped oxygen and suction needed to be established in all Govt & Medical College Hospitals in two weeks’ time. If possible convert major private hospitals for COVID-19 patents and shift other medical emergencies in Govt facilities. A viable suggestion is put on the table to meet the shortage of doctors & specialists. Experts have suggested to amend old MCI regulations to grant degrees by skipping final year MBBS & PG exams that would produce 1.5 lakh doctors & specialists immediately that would be India’s ammunition against COVID-19. UK did this & Italy is following it as they have no choice. Critical situation demands out-of- box solutions.
India has managed to increase Govt testing facilities to 118 with an average 1250 COVID-19 tests daily while IMRC has approved 29 accredited private labs chain having 17000 collection centres across the country. In J&K, this facility is available in 4 Labs including one private lab-Dr. Lal Path. With this, the public access to testing in India has increased.
While many epidemiologists have warned of months & years for stemming out this virus, Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate of 2013 & biophysicist who analyzed data of 78 affected countries, saw “signs of recovery.” He feels that the outbreak “may be winding down” even though “numbers are still noisy, but there are clear signs of slowed growth” in South Korea. Credited with dot-on prediction on China “ending up around 80,000 cases with about 3245 deaths” Levitt sees similar turning points in other nations, even by those who didn’t instill the draconian isolation that China did. He too calls for social distancing as the virus is new and warned that it can grow exponentially only when it is undetected, asking people to report the illness to check it from spreading. This point is reaffirmed by our Govt. in its advisory.
Not to create superstitions & myths but Levitt’s view find endorsement from our Vedic astrology that predicted 31st March, 2020 as date when coronavirus would start weakening following “transit of Jupiter to Makar Rashi which is the Maarak Sthaan (destruction point) for Dhanu” It says that this problem has begun on 26th December, 2020 with the solar eclipse in Dhanu Rashi nakshatra & it is believed that its effect remains for three months. It predicts weakening of virus from 13th April, 2020. Increasing summer temperature up to June would further weaken its grip and finally ends on 23rd September, 2020 when “Ketu transit to Scorpio, moving away from Mool nakshatra.”
There is no room for panic or complacency as the cases can shoot up any time especially when many people with travel history are still undetected and others with similar symptoms hiding, fearing social stigma. Convince yourself & others to “behave” and stay home; follow Govt advisory, report persons with symptoms for medical scrutiny and extend untint support to the local administration to defeat COVIND-19. On flipside, Coronavirus have united India with political parties supporting the Govt in this fight for survival, giving competitive politics much needed rest. Given the national resolve, one can confidently say-hum honge kamyab aik din.
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