Rameshwar Singh Jamwal
Now that Narendra Modi led cabinet is in place with a tally which is just twenty one seats more than the simple majority mark, the first major disturbing incident that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s return at the helm of affairs of Nation saw was the killing of nine persons in Reasi District of Jammu by terrorists, still calling the shots in Jammu region. The attack by terrorists shows that Prime Minister Modi’s return to power will not be a smooth affair, challenges would come in abundance and it was a foregone conclusion but whether Pakistan led gauntlet would come so soon and whether he will be in a position to deliver on his promises of tackling the menace and deliver on his big promises of taking the country forward on path of progress against all these odds is the big question which will be there in the minds of all right thinking Indians. The fact that BJP has suffered big jolts in key states, the margin of victory for Prime Minister and some other key leaders including those in J&K has come down considerably and the opposition, especially Congress has got a new lease of life and will be vying for the kill will also be there in the minds of key BJP strategists when they meet to evaluate their performance. No doubt, the third term for Narendra Modi may be his last term as Prime Minister, though he has kept everybody guessing by talking about the next ten years, and he will try to accomplish his big agendas for the country in the coming years, but he will not have a smooth run in so far as his domestic agendas are concerned. Some legislations, like those on population control, CAA, Uniform Civil Code, simultaneous polls for the country and many more will have to be compromised or negotiated carefully as Nitish Kumar and Chander Babu Naidu may not like to be considered as anti Muslim, which these legislations would be dubbed. Narendra Modi may have not have compromised on key ministries showing his intent of continuity in key areas, but the allies can demand and insist for grant of special status for Bihar and Andhra Pradesh which will put extra pressure on fiscal health of the country. On political front, many key states that are going for elections in near future like Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra will also see key political alignments, which may not be of much liking to the BJP. There will be international conspiracies to damage India, aspiring to surpass Japanese and German economies on near future and contain Chinese progress in key areas. All these indicate intricacies and challenges of unprecedented scale and will require the best of abilities of Narendra Modi to sail through these turbulent waters. There will be fresh challenges from Pakistan, China and some other small countries in the neighborhood, which do not like India to get stronger. But the biggest internal challenge Modi would be facing would come from J&K UT. Elections are to be held in J&K as per the directions of the Supreme Court in the next couple of months and the present indications are that it will be National Conference and Congress combine which may be in a position to form the government. Though BJP scored over Congress nominees in 29 out of 43 Constituencies in Jammu region, it lacks support of a credible political outfit in Kashmir. National Conference and Congress have led in 7 seats each in Jammu region, while BJP took 1258664 votes, it constitutes only 24.43 per cent of the overall votes polled, Congress that gave stiff fight to BJP in Jammu region seats polled 998793 votes making it 19.38 per cent of the vote share across Jammu and Kashmir, this despite there being a strong Modi factor in Jammu region. This factor would be missing when Assembly elections are held as people take into account the performance of the local leaders as well, where BJP is at its weakest point. It has negligible presence in Kashmir and other Muslim majority areas of Jammu region, no strong indicator of performance as most of its MLA’s underperformed, they offered no road map for bringing J&K out of morass, no vision for bright future or a roadmap for the beleaguered youth of the UT, and no blueprint for strengthening the bonds of J&K with rest of India. Its local leadership has no clue for an out of Box solution for J&K and won’t let any positive suggestion from the intelligentia outside its umbrella.
This leaves the field vide open for National Conference that has polled 1147041 votes, which is 22.26 per cent of the overall votes polled across Jammu and Kashmir. PDP has polled 435980 votes making 8.26 per cent of the overall vote share, which too will support NC for wider Kashmir cause. Sajjad Lone, who was supposed to get majority of Pahari speaking votes in North Kashmir could muster only 173239 votes which is 3.36 per cent of the overall votes polled across J&K while giant killer Engineer Rashid polled 472481 votes which is 9.17 per cent of the votes of J&K though he contested only from one seat. In terms of seats, National Conference has led in 34 of the 90 Assembly segments though it contested only three Parliamentary constituencies, Baramulla Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri and while it is sure support of Congress which led in seven Assembly segments, a tally likely to go up in assembly elections. BJP supported Sajad Gani Lone has been able to gain majority only in Handwara while another BJP ally Apni Party could not get lead even in one assembly segment. Ghulam Nabi Azad’s party is just a non starter but may score few surprises in near future or may lead to brightening of prospects for others, depending upon the tactical support of Azad for any future dispensation. This leads to a piquant situation for the BJP led central government. National Conference and PDP have already shown their intentions about Article 370 revocation. They may not be in a position to alter Parliament resolution but will certainly pass assembly resolution against the move which will be an embrassing situation for BJP and an international headline. Moreover, they will capture the UT apparatus and use it for furtherance of their agenda, negating all the moves made by New Delhi in letting loosening grip of pro secessionist elements in the administration of J&K and its efforts to integrate J&K with rest of India. The same set of people who were accused of sympathetic with secessionist elements would be chairing the Unified Command meetings and the Belt forces would be hesitant to share details of their strategies and getting right kind of support of J&K Police in countering the terrorists. Jammu region will again get relegated to the background in so far as development activities are concerned and the migration of Jammu youth to other parts of the country in search of jobs and progress would again gain momentum. The election results have thrown up umpteen uncertainties and unless tackled tactfully by Modi led government, the future seems bleak for the residents of J&K which was witnessing some brighter spots in few areas of concern for the common man, and his urge for a peaceful and better future.
(The author is a practicing Advocate of J&K High Court)
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