Kalyani Shankar
The media has all but crowned the Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi as the NDA’s Prime Ministerial candidate for the Lok Sabha poll 2014. Modi also did not hide his ambitions and virtually declared himself as the candidate at the BJP National Council meet in the capital last weekend.
The meeting was a Modi show all the way as there was concrete evidence of the support from the rank and file for Modi. If anyone had expected the BJP to announce its prime ministerial candidate they were in for disappointment. This could be because there is a process of doing so and it has not yet begun.
There will be a three tier consultations before the final choice is made. The first is within the BJP, the second is with the RSS and the third is with the NDA allies. The fact is that even the first tier consultations have not yet begun. While the other aspirants are keeping quiet now, they may not remain so at the time of decision making as each of the half a dozen aspirants at the top are candidates themselves. Modi is known as a loner and has not endeared himself to his colleagues. Advani can never be written off and his influence will continue as he showed by finishing Gadkari in one stroke. The party may go into the pros and cons of fielding Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate along with his Godhara baggage.
The second and more important tier is the RSS. The parent body has not been very happy with Modi these past ten years for making the RSS shut shop in Gujarat. The parent body still has control of the BJP. Therefore Modi has to make up with Nagpur to get support.
As for the NDA allies, the JD (U) has a problem with Modi and will quit the NDA if he is the BJP’s choice. The Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal may support Modi but they are numerically weaker than the JD (U). Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray is suspicious of Modi hobnobbing with his cousin MNS chief Raj. The BJP has no single point command. Gone are the days of Atal Bihari Vajpayee as the regional allies have become stronger now and aspiring to take a centre stage. Even if the BJP decides on a gamble and risks the breaking up of the NDA the BJP may not get more than 180 in the best case scenario if Modi is the choice. Where can it get another 100 seats to bid for power? The AIADMK and the BJD are the best bet but even then the numbers are not adequate. Modi’s bid to rebrand himself at the National Council meeting may have succeeded with the BJP delegates but he has much more to do to lure the NDA allies.
Despite all these, the single point in favour of Modi is the huge support from the rank and file. As some senior BJP leaders admitted later, they had no choice other than to showcase Modi at the National Council meeting which was convened mainly to endorse the election of Rajnath Singh and ultimately it turned out to be a Modi show. Rajnath himself led the others in showering praise on Modi for his hat trick in winning the State Assembly and urged the meeting to give him a standing ovation.
But the attitude of the senior BJP leaders sitting in the front row at the meeting told a different story. Their faces showed no enthusiasm matching that of the delegates. At least half a dozen of them are aspirants including the senior most BJP leader L.K. Advani. Why would they cheer Modi? The speeches at the meeting also showed the differences. Advani likened Modi to the other successful BJP chief ministers strengthening the speculation that the Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Chhattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh too could stake a claim if they win their states for the third time in the ensuing Assembly elections. This is exactly what Modi wants to avoid and therefore in a hurry to take the centre stage.
Modi is working to a plan and he is a good planner. He has no financial constraints to project himself as the doer. This was the second time Modi made his presence felt in the capital in recent times after his successful attempt to address the students at the Shri Ram College of Commerce soon after his winning Gujarat for the third time. Modi was the hero in the National Council meeting.
Modi showed his oratorical skills at the meeting when he bashed the Congress, the Gandhi family and also the Prime Minister. He used intemperate language, which did not go down well in some quarters as they expected him to behave like a prime ministerial aspirant. Instead he spoke as he would in a public meeting. Secondly eyebrows were raised about his remark that President Pranab Mukherjee would have made a better prime minister. Some wonder whether it was because it will be Mukherjee who would have to swear him in as the prime minister if everything goes well and he wanted to keep the President on his side.
Modi has taken the capital by storm during the week- end leaving behind endless drawing room debates and a political storm. He has begun well with his media blitz but Modi may have committed the mistake of launching his campaign for his elevation too soon. It has to be seen whether he can sustain it for the next 14 months. If lady luck and his publicity blitz help him out, no one can stop him from becoming the prime ministerial candidate. It is another story if he could go on to occupy 7, Race Course Road. (IPA)
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