Anil Anand
The weathermen’s prediction of a good and timely monsoon certainly has given a reason to the BJP-led NDA Government to rejoice as it is hoped that good rains would rev up the economy and arrest the inflationary trends. But the scenario would not be that rosy either for the Government or the ruling BJP when the Parliament would meet during the same time for what is termed as its Monsoon Session.
With majority still eluding the ruling alliance in Rajya Sabha, it will continue to remain a trouble spot as the fate of important legislations such GST Bill etc would continue to hang fire despite Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s brave statements on these Bills becoming a reality soon. Definitely there are other courses open for the Government which includes convincing strong regional parties to fall in line and support the Government and, of course, holding a joint Session of Parliament which would ensure passage of these Bills comfortably.
This apart the Upper House discomfiture would continue to trouble Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Government as the magical figure to touch the majority remains elusive and would do so even till the current dispensation finishes its term in 2019. That is a real trouble spot for Modi who, otherwise, has been able to overcome some hurdles with many promises remaining unfulfilled as the Government completed its two years.
The floor managers of the BJP led by Parliamentary Affairs Minister M Venkaiah Naidu and Jaitley have an onerous task ahead when Parliament meets in the midst of predicted heavy downpour, in July-August. They will have to put their best foot forward to isolate Congress and win over parties having presence in Rajya Sabha but were either siding with the century old party or were its allies.
Such isolation if achieved would certainly give BJP and its allies a reason to smile as they would be able to further push the Congress to the corner ahead of the next round of Assembly elections in 2017. But there is a big ‘if’ in the form of coming UP Assembly elections where Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samajwadi Party have big stakes. The vote bank politics of the state would weigh heavily on the SP and BSP leaders’ minds before thinking of backing any BJP sponsored legislation or move.
Would the two parties veer around the idea of being seen alongside BJP ahead of this power packed elections where communal and castiest tones threaten to run high? There are no easy answers to this question at the moment. And to look for answers all eyes would be glued on Rajya Sabha come Monsoon Session.
A resounding victory in just concluded Assam Assembly elections has certainly given BJP a reason to feel delighted as it has also given the saffron party a huge entry point into the North Eastern states. The Congress loss both in Assam and Kerala has certainly put the BJP leadership high on adrenaline in pursuance of their goal of “Congress Mukt Bharat”.
But it has provided little to the party to cheer about so far as it’s Rajya Sabha numbers are concerned. The Assam and Kerala defeats is certainly a bad news for the Congress which is already struggling to keep itself relevant on the country’s political firmament. But there is an equally bad news for the BJP in view of the fact that these debacles are not impacting the Congress’s numerical strength in Rajya Sabha by a huge leap.
It seems hugely impossible for BJP-led NDA to touch the magical figure of a half way mark in 250- member Rajya Sabha even up to the 2019 General elections. The best case scenario, which would also depend on BJP and allies performance in UP and other state Assembly elections, would be that they could cross the 100-seat figure.
The most disturbing factor for the ruling alliance at the Centre particularly the BJP would be that the Congress continues to be the largest party in Rajya Sabha till next Lok Sabha polls. BJP had recently got a boost with the nomination of six new members by the Government. It will have to rely heavily on regional satraps such as J Jayalalitha (AIADMK) and Mamta Banerjee (Trinmool Congress) with their sizable presence in the Upper House. This would only open window for yet another bout of hard bargaining entailing many compromises.
It is in the backdrop of this hazy scenario that the BJP has approached the elections to fill 57 seats of Rajya Sabha. The party has pulled all stops not only to win as many seats but to ensure that none of the seats where second preference votes assume significance goes to the Congress.
The sudden advent of those candidates with money bags on the poll scene has been planned and plotted by the BJP with this view. The desperation of the ruling dispensation at the Centre could be felt from the fact that most of these nominees were fielded with the party’s backing but as independents.
Barring a few seats involving high-profile Congress candidates the outcome of this round or Rajya Sabha elections was mostly on expected lines.
This is, Rajya Sabha, one area where the BJP leadership would be able to do little. They will have to be contended with adopting a slow and steady approach as against their aggressive style aimed at accruing immediate dividends no matter at what cost or what needs to be done, fair or foul.
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