K B Jandial
The newly formed exuberant I.N.D.I.A alliance lost its plot, not in the defeat of no-confidence motion against Modi Govt in Lok Sabha, but in the lack of political courage to stand to the no-hold-barred onslaught of PM Modi that forced them to walk out of the house even before PM finished his speech. The defeat of the no-confidence motion was obvious in view of the huge gap in numbers of the ruling party and new Alliance MPs. However, the biggest take away from the defeated no-confidence motion was that the Alliance passed the first test of unity.

Straight Talk

It is a general feeling that not a single speaker from the I.N.D.I.A alliance including Rahul Gandhi could match the speeches of Home Minister’ and Prime Minister marked by meticulousness and erudition respectively. If they had no mental strength to face the PM’s attack, then why had they been insisting PM’s presence and speech in the Parliament? They might have done better if the Manipur debate was allowed under whatever rule, preferably without Modi’s speech.
As the PM Modi performed the ‘open heart surgery’ of Congress rule, right from Pt Nehru’s days with fierce and sharp jibes, the I.N.D.I.A alliance leaders felt so humiliated and frustrated that they found an easy and self-defeating escape route of walk-out even before the end of Modi’s two-hour long speech. Did they not anticipate this blitzkrieg? Modi turned the occasion to his first election rally for the 2024 election. The Congress unwittingly provided a floor to Modi Govt to list out their achievements of nine years which are quite impressive. Any debate of Manipur would have deprived the ruling party an opportunity to list out its achievements. Yes, there are some un-responded issues like unemployment, rising prices of all commodities and Ladakh standoff with China.
Never in the parliamentary history of India or even in other democracies, the mover of the no-confidence motion and his party ran away from the House and the voting conducted in their absence. Initially, it appeared that I.N.D.I.A alliance has made a master stroke by moving a no-confidence motion to “bring PM to Lok Sabha and to speak on Manipur” but in the end, they squandered the opportunity by hitting the wickets themselves to make Modi triumph in the three-day match. They unnecessarily created ruckus in the Parliament to wash out the entire monsoon session, the Govt, however, got its important business almost done. Who won the people’s perception?
Would there have been any major difference if they had accepted debate on Manipur’s shameless incident of 4th may 2023 except forcing PM’s presence and reply, which the opposition in any case, could not withstand. Intriguingly, the Manipur video came out on 20th July, a few days before the monsoon session of the Parliament. Was it planned to derail Parliament’s monsoon session or target the PM? It just can’t be a sheer coincidence. The Home Minister had enough material on undoing the past Congress rule in Manipur and the whole of North East that floored the new Alliance. In fact, Amit Shah literally pulled the rug under their feet when he called for Lok Sabha’s an all-party resolution for peace in Manipur which dithered as peace in the troubled State was never their goalpost.
After remaining silent over the unfortunate Manipur happenings, the PM very astutely expressed his anguish over the incident on the opening of the session. He took the punch out of the opposition’s attack when he said to the media, “As I stand next to this temple of democracy, my heart is filled with pain and anger. The Manipur incident is shameful for any civilised nation. The entire country has been shamed,” he said and added, “I want to assure the nation, no guilty will be spared. Action will be taken according to the law. What happened to the daughters of Manipur can never be forgiven.”
While Manipur continues to be on boil, political parties are doing their politics on the events of the state, unmindful of gang rapes taking place in opposition ruled States. Whatever was the misrule and killing of tribal people of the past, it is disturbing that killing is still taking place, though the number is much less. It is also creditable that the Home Minister Amit Shah camped there for three days and his Deputy 23 days but they didn’t know the shameless act of 4th May. This, of course, speaks for State Govt’s administrative and intelligence failure. The Home Ministry shifted the Chief Secretary and DGP of Manipur. Shah rejected the demand for President Rule on the ground that the State Govt is working in tandem to control the situation but unfortunately killing continued unabated. This should not deter the Govt to continue sincere efforts for reconciliation between two violent valley-majority Meitei and the hill-majority Kuki tribes over the former’s demand for ST status and High Court decision to grant it.
On the other hand, there appears to be no convincing justification for PM Modi in not making a fervent appeal to the armed tribes to shun bloodshed during the last three months, much less visiting the troubled State to take stock of the deteriorating situation. Whatever Congress says, Prime Minister Modi has ascended on international level and risen to be an important global leader with acknowledged vision, articulation and promptness in decision making. It is intriguing that such an eloquent and passionate speaker, PM Modi remained silent on Manipur’s shocking incidents. Leave aside Congress and other opposition leaders crying hoarse on it, even otherwise, the Prime Minister, as a popular leader of the country, is otherwise also expected to visit the State of occurrence of such gory incidents that are against Indian values and culture.
It is beyond comprehension that a globally popular and visionary PM having empathy and compassion, has mostly preferred to remain silent on critical matters like riots, mob lynching, wanton killings and violence taken place in different parts of the country. It appears to be a considered strategy of BJP and PM advisors to hold back the PM from commenting on such condemnable, sensitive & dreadful incidents. Manipur is not the only such incident, same approach was noticed in the past in umpteen cases of lynching by cow vigilantes, slaughtering of individuals under “Sar Tan Se Juda”, hate speeches, attacks on places of worship, riots etc. In what way, not speaking against such organised crime that posed a threat to peace and harmony, would benefit the PM or BJP benefit in the election?
This along with the popular Hindutva card may not always help BJP like in Karnataka & Himachal. Kharge’s remark on Lord Hanuman also could not salvage BJP. While internal ‘manthan’ must have made BJP wiser but freebies are the major contributory factor. Voters, especially the poor, lower middle class and even the middle class, forget everything else when freebies are promised. Efforts to polarise voters has led to stronger reverse polarisation. Hindus are, by and large, very liberal and don’t want to hurt others. So, religious card may not always get the Party a solid mandate. There are other issues like inflation, employment, corruption, ease of living etc that are influencing voters in the next election. It appears that no party has any different ideology as leaders poached from a totally adverse ideological party, have become CM, LoP and State Presidents. All political parties have one ideology and that is grabbing power, how to get it is not sacrosanct.
The fact is that people still listen to PM Modi very attentively within and outside the country. He has many forums to counsel people who have gone berserk and threaten the peace and communal harmony. Even the popular forum of “man ki baat’ is ideal to contain tempers of one section of the people or the other. But nothing of the sort has happened. PM Modi’s silence is creating a negative perception even though Pollsters predict a third term for him comfortably. Anti-incumbency is the major challenge in 2024 elections especially when the opposition is upbeat on BJP’s Karnataka defeat, formation of Alliance of 26 opposition parties and sectarian violence in some of the BJP ruled States.
The ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey conducted by a leading TV channel 200 days before the 2024 poll, reveals the return of Modi with 306 NDA Lok Sabha seats, 46 less than the current strength, obviously anti-incumbency taking tool. The I.N.D.I.A alliance too is gathering momentum despite inherent contradictions. The survey puts its number at193 seats if elections are held today. According to this survey, Modi (44%), Development ( 22%), and Hindutva ( 12%) are the factors on which the people vote for BJP. Modi continues to be the brand in the election with 52 % people wanting him to be PM, down by just one point since January 2022. Rahul Gandhi too has improved his acceptability as PM from 7 % to 16 % in this period. The survey claims that Congress too is improving its position with possibly winning 74 seats, a gain of 22 seats but much behind BJP which is shown losing 16 seats but holding 287 seats, crossing the half mark of 272 to form the Govt. of its own.
Issues like unemployment, rising prices, irresponsible statements, communal tensions are bothering people and many are dissatisfied with the local administration. It is strange that despite this, the graph of popularity of Modi is much higher than anyone else. The fact is that people have seen unstable Govts of coalition of ideologically incompatible political parties in the past. The people trust Modi to fix their problems. This gives BJP an edge over everyone.
Still elections are unpredictable. Opposition alliance with a common candidate would pose a serious challenge to BJP. It will be interesting to see whether Modi & BJP would change the poll strategy in view of the Karnataka debacle and under currents. BJP must show faith in their slogan of Sab ka Saath, Sab Ka Vikas, Sab ka Vishwas. Forthcoming elections in five States of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Mizoram in 2023 will definitely impact BJP performance in 2024 Lok Sabha election.
(feedback: – kbjandial@gmail.com)

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