- NC-Cong alliance ahead of BJP
- PDP a distant third, Others too perform well
Sanjeev Pargal
JAMMU, Oct 5: Most of the Exit Polls have predicted hung Assembly in Jammu and Kashmir with NC-Congress alliance front-runner for the power and NC emerging as single largest party followed by the BJP. The PDP has been shown at distant third place. One of the Exit Polls predicted that the NC-Cong alliance could even cross the majority mark of 48 in the Assembly.
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This is first election to the Legislative Assembly in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir with last being held in 2014 when J&K was a State. The UT has 90-member Assembly for which election was held in three-phases and counting is scheduled to take place on October 8. However, there is a provision for nomination of five MLAs in the Assembly by the Lieutenant Governor on the advice of the Union Home Ministry which will take total number of MLAs to 95 and majority mark to 48 as the nominated MLAs have voting rights.
The nominated MLAs will include two women, two Kashmiri Pandits including one of them a woman and one Pakistan occupied Jammu Kashmir (PoJK) refugee.
According to TV-Today C-voter projections, the NC-Congress alliance is likely to win 40-48 seats while the BJP can get 27-32 seats. Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP was projected to win 6-12 seats while Independents and Others can get 6-11.
Axis MY INDIA gave 35-45 seats to Congress-NC combine, 24-34 seats to BJP, 4-6 to PDP, 3-8 to AIP of Engineer Rashid, 1-3 to People’s Conference, 0-2 to Apni Party and 4-10 to Independents and Others.
As per Dainik Bhaskar’s projection, the NC-Congress alliance can win seats ranging from 35-40. The BJP can win 20-25 seats, PDP 4-7 while the others can get 12-18 seats.
The People’s Pulse survey has predicted 46-50 seats for the NC-Congress alliance and 23-27 for the BJP. People’s Pulse was the only Group which predicted majority for the two parties while others showed that the UT is heading for a hung House. The PDP can win 7-11 whereas the others can get 4-6 seats, it said.
The asianetnews.com projected 35-40 seats for NC-Congress alliance, 20-25 for the BJP, 4-7 for the PDP and 12-16 for Independents and Others.
The projection on Republic TV gave an equal number of 28-30 seats to BJP and NC, 3-6 seats to the Congress, 5-7 seats to the PDP and 8-16 seats for other parties and Independents.
Dhruv Research projected NC-Congress vote share at 46 percent and BJP’s 27 percent. It said the PDP will get 9 percent votes while Others will secure 18 percent votes.
Most of the pollsters excepting one agency have predicted a hung Assembly in Jammu and Kashmir with National Conference or NC-Congress alliance emerging as single largest party/group.
Significantly, the BJP has been getting almost all its seats in Jammu division which means the party is unlikely to open its account in the Kashmir valley once again despite hectic election campaign by the senior party leaders. NC-Congress alliance is getting seats in both the divisions making it a single largest group, as per the psephologists. However, things will be clear only on October 8.
The Election Commission of India said that an overall 63.88 per cent voter turnout was recorded in the Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir.
The poll panel said that a voter turn of 69.69 percent was recorded in the third phase held on October 1. Phase-1 and Phase-2 saw polling percentages of 61.38 percent and 57.31 percent, respectively.
A number of times, predictions of the Exit Polls have gone wrong. In the Parliamentary elections held in April-May this year, the Exit Polls results were no way near the actual figures.
The three-phase Assembly elections concluded peacefully in Jammu and Kashmir on October 1. These were the first Assembly polls held in Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370.
The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and Congress, partners in the INDIA bloc, jointly contested the Assembly elections while the PDP and BJP fought the elections on their own.
Counting of votes is scheduled to be held for all 90 seats on October 8.
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