Harsha Kakar
In recent times, Donald Trump is seeking to enhance pressures on multiple nations intending to bring about a change to benefit US’s policies. These include North Korea, Venezuela, Syria, Russia, China and Iran. The US in most cases has imposed economic sanctions or some form of it, which it has considered its right, as the world economy is the Dollar. The US feels that as a world leader it can push the rest of the world to toe its thoughts and follow its diktat. While the same may sound ideal, however nations involved would react differently.
Recently the US enhanced tariffs on Chinese products, post the failure of trade talks. The Chinese bounced back with their own enhanced tariffs leading to an open confrontation. It may not benefit either nation but indicates that China will not bend. It is anyway challenging the US in every sphere.
The US attempted to punish Russia for multiple reasons including interference in US elections, Crimea and involvement in Syria. It even imposed CAATSA (Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) and threatened all nations which procure military equipment from the country. However, it has had limited impact. Close US allies, India and Turkey, have refused to bend and continue to procure Russian equipment. Russia in retaliation has enhanced its role in Syria, increased its proximity to Iran and begun supporting the Taliban, all of whom operate against the US.
Though there have been two summit meetings between Kim Jong-Un of North Korea and President Trump, denuclearization of North Korea is still miles away. Kim Jong-Un has also met Xi Jinping of China and Putin of Russia in separate meetings. Thus, while the US may continue to impose sanctions and seek to bring the state to boil, there are always others who would support the country and counter US actions. Kim Jong-Un remains defiant as ever and continues to maintain his stance of lifting sanctions with limited surrenders from his side. The reason is evident, he does not trust the US nor its intentions.
In Venezuela sanctions have been imposed on the country to change the current regime headed by Maduro. The US has openly announced support to Juan Guaido, the opposition leader who has declared himself as an interim President. There have also been rumours of the US seeking to intervene militarily in support of Guaido. Presently, US has banned nations from purchasing Venezuelan oil, which is its main export. However, Maduro continues to hold forth in defiance.Despite a major drop in economy, the nation refuses to break. There are also reports of Russian and Chinese troops being present in the country.
Post withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear deal, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May last year, the US imposed sanctions on the country. From 01 May this year, no nation would be exempt from sanctions for procuring Iranian oil. It believes the deal is flawed and permits Iran to develop Ballistic missiles and support terrorist networks across West Asia, specifically in Syria and the Hezbollah in Lebanon. It has done so to support its two main allies in the region, Israel and Saudi Arabia, the two main antagonists of Iran.
To further enhance pressure, it has deployed its B52 bombers in the region as also moved a naval fleet. However, despite all its actions, there is little change on the ground. Iran has threatened to walk out of the deal unless other nations who signed it are willing to stand by and continue procuring oil. The EU and Russia are working at a solution, whether they could push one through remains to be seen.
Syria has seen multiple players supported by different regimes, each seeking to play to their advantage. The arrival of Russia and Iran into the country, changed the dynamics for the US. Sanctions imposed on Syria have had no impact. Russia would ensure the survival of the regime, despite all attempts by the US.
The US had applied pressure on Pak for a long time, including stopping all aid to the country, unless it reigns in terrorist groups which it continues to support. Little happened. Taliban attacks continued and so did its support to terrorism in India. It was only FATF and the Indian strike atBalakote which forced Pak to change its tune.
In desperation, the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, rushed to Sochi to meet the Russian Foreign Secretary, Sergey Lavrov to discuss apart from Russian interferencein US elections, also Venezuela, Syria and Iran. In every case there was a disagreement. US desired that Russia join in supporting US stand against these nations, while Russia disputed the US approach.
In each of the instances of nations listed above, US actions have been preceded by insults from Trump on social media, either against the country or its leader. These insults have been followed by threats of the US enhancing pressures to force nations to bend. Open threats on social media only add to anger within the country and bind its population together to face US blackmail.
Every nation, irrespective of its military and economic power possesses self-esteem and self-respect. Its leadership cannot be seen to be weak enough to fall for threats from a nation whose leadership has insulted and threatened the nation. Therefore, it would never break and bend, despite actions being taken by the US. While the US would desire the world join hands to follow their diktat, there is open disagreement and support to these countries by those who challenge the US.
The US remains aware that unilateral military action would never be a guaranteed success. This is more pronounced especially in regions where there is a clash of religions or civilizations, Iran or Syria. The mere presence of Russian and Chinese troops in Venezuela, would prevent the US from making any military attempts. Thus, if it must make any difference, it would need international support, which by its actions, it has ensured would never be available. Its antagonists, Russia and China, would challenge US actions anywhere and everywhere across the globe.
It is time the US realizes that insults, threats and sanctions can never go hand in hand, unless backed by strong military measures, which are presently restricted. Diplomacy can be effective onlr if all major powers are in sync. The only damage which the US has created is that it has impacted global economy and pushed weaker nations further downwards, especially with its sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, as the oil market has shrunk, and prices risen.
The author is Major General (Retd)
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