Harihar Swarup
BJP leaders may not believe it but Narendra Modi is fast losing his popular appeal. Look at Modi who had won Gujarat assembly election for third time in succession, routing the Congress and his opponents like Keshubhai Patel. His popularity at that time soared highest ever and now it is going down equally sharply. According to Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, “the Modi wave was just a bubble fuelled by corporate money”.
Nitish told the assembly while replying to the debate on the Trust motion moved by him that the BJP was playing the OBC card these days. “You need sympathy and sensitivity to be a leader from the OBC. An OBC-born cannot be a leader after being trumped up on corporate goodwill. You have to work for the OBC before being deemed their leader. It is not a question of birth, but the work you do”.
The CM said there was talk of a “Modi wave”. “I don’t know which wave they are talking about. If there is one, it has been kicked up by the corporate world. But this is the usual technique, to repeat rumours, to spread falsehood. Let us understand that this is a temporary phenomenon that cannot stand before the will of the people. The country will not be influenced by this propaganda”.
The common man’s refrain when Modi romped with a thumping majority was that the Gujarat Chief Minister has taken a new avatar as vote catcher for the BJP. Even staunch critics of BJP and of Modi believed people will overwhelmingly vote after his name because of the development work he has done in Gujarat and also because of his charismatic personality, mass appeal and powerful oratory. BJP’s leadership has also pinned high hopes on him. That is why at party’s Goa conclave, they anointed him to head the BJP’s campaign committee for the coming assembly elections and Lok Sabha election in 2014. It also looked apparent that he would be declared the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate after assembly elections, scheduled in November, are over.
Amid the soaring popularity of Modi, came L K Advani’s revolt dubbing the BJP leaders, Gujarat Chief Minister in particular, of working for their personal aggrandizement and for fulfillment of their personal agenda, at the cost of the party’s interest. The pitch of Advani’s attack was so powerful that it hit at the roots of Modi’s mass appeal. People were heard saying openly that a party, which is so faction-ridden, cannot give an effective administration. Even then the popular mood was in favour of Modi, the refrain being that Advani, having reached peak of his career, should hang his boots and act like elder statesman.
Then the 17-year-old BJP-JD(U) alliance splintered on the issue of pitch forking Modi as BJP’s poll campaign head with firm indication that he would be declared the saffron party’s Prime Ministerial candidate. This was too much for Nitish Kumar. He explained that is why he took this extreme step and his explanation was clear. The Bihar Chief Minister, who decisively rebuffed the BJP on Modi issue, walked out of NDA and this was neither in the interest of the BJP nor Gujarat CM. Kumar is right when he says that betrayal was from saffron camp and not from his side. “Those who cannot respect their elders (Advani), are accusing us of betrayal. What did they do with Advani”, he asked?
Nitish told the assembly “a particular model is being imposed on us. The BJP keeps praising that model, but they hesitate to praise Bihar model. What development do they talk about in a state where the minimum wage is Rs. 100? In Bihar it is Rs.162 and the same rate will be given under MGNREGA as well.”
So far midway into his second term as chief minister, Nitish has deliberately balanced several strategies. He has accorded a new primacy to development in a state that has been denuded of governance and vision while, at the same time, finessing the politics of social alliances, and invoking “Bihari pride”.
With the break up of JD(U)-BJP alliance, the NDA is dead for all practical purpose. The NDA is left with just two constituents – Akali Dal and the Shiv Sena. With exit of Nitish Kumar’s party, which has 20 members in the Lok Sabha, it is the Shiv Sena with 11 seats is the largest constituent. Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray is little too junior to become the NDA convenor. Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, therefore, emerges as a natural choice for the convenor’s post.
The JD(U) President Sharad Yadav, on his part, ruled a rapprochement with the BJP, saying “we cannot go back now. Once an alliance breaks, it is nearly impossible to rebuild it. Our principles and identity were in danger”. Also Vajpayee-Advani era, in which the NDA functioned as a cohesive force, is over.
In a related development RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat emphatically told L K Advani that Modi’s elevation and subsequently his nomination as the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate is irreversible. On his part Advani tried to convince the RSS chief that kicking up of Modi was not in the BJP’s interest as the step has driven out the party’s allies and potential allies. In his hour-long meeting with Bhagwat, Advani cited the recent split between BJP and JD(U) as the proof of Gujarat CM’s unacceptability. (IPA)
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