Harsha Kakar
Iran has been at the forefront of most global conflicts either directly or indirectly in recent years. It is a member of the Russia-China-Iran-North Korea alliance in Eurasia, supporting Russia in its war with Ukraine by providing drones. It is Iranian proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, battling its arch enemy Israel,resulting in upheaval in the region. These proxies were armed and funded by Tehran.
The removal of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria reduced one major Iranian proxy. The overthrow brought in another repressive regime, however since it was orchestrated by the west, it continues being supported, despite its mass human rights violations and sectarian killings.
The Houthi’s in Yemen, another Iranian proxy, have been targeting shipping in the Red Sea. They have publicly displayed their animosity towards Israel. Airstrikes by the US and Israel has done little to deter their actions. Iran also has proxies in Iraq which target US military bases in the region. The Baloch Freedom Fighters seeking independence from Pakistan have bases in Iran. The recent high-jacking of the train in Baluchistan was launched by these groups, largely operating from Iran.
Pakistan blamed Afghanistan, though aware that the leadership of the Baloch is based in Iran. The reason is that it would prefer diplomacy with Tehran to accusing them, while Afghanistan is an easy target. Added is Iran’s influence over Pakistan’s Shia community. Simultaneously, Pakistan provides support to anti-Iran terrorist groups on its soil.
Iran has, with the mediation of China, re-established ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, though tensions remain.
Added are growing concerns on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. In 2015, European nations and the Barrack Obama led US government inked the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) agreement with Iran. Under this Iran accepted to dismantling its nuclear weapons program while opening its facilities to extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief. This was then considered a breakthrough agreement as the threat of Iran’s nuclear weapons program reduced.
Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, opening doors for Iran to enhance its nuclear enrichment. In a report to the UN Security Council of end February this year, the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) announced that Iran’s nuclear stockpile of Uranium has reached 60% purity, near the 90 percent purity level considered weapon-grade.
The agency report mentioned, ‘increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon state to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern.’ Inputs mention that Iran has the ability to produce six nuclear weapons. This raised shackles across the world.
Israel had long been insisting that Iran should never be permitted to develop nuclear weapons. It has for years been advocating airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, however denied support by the US. In recent tit-for-tat operations between Israel and Iran, the Israeli Air Force seriously damaged Iran’s air defence systems opening doors for subsequent attacks on its soil, enhancing its strategic vulnerability. The intent of Israel and the US has always been to keep doors open for targeting Iran’s nuclear plants.
Recently Trump wrote a letter to the Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seeking negotiations with Tehran on a new nuclear deal. He mentioned in an interview to Fox Business, ‘There are two ways Iran can be handled, militarily or you make a deal. I would prefer to make a deal, because I’m not looking to hurt Iran.’
The letter, addressed to the Iranian President, was delivered to the Iranian foreign minister through the diplomatic advisor to the President of the UAE. By announcing the letter, Trump appeared to be threatening Iran that either it negotiates or there could be military and economic action.
Naturally, Khamenei rejected the offer, claiming Iran would not submit to bullying. No leader would accept being pushed the way Trump has been attempting. Capitulating to Trump could impact the survival of the regime. However, doors for negotiation remain open as Iran has not laid down any conditions. Moderates in Iran are willing for dialogue. Iran has always insisted that its nuclear program is not intended for military purposes.
Iran’s allies, China and Russia, have jumped into the fray. A discussion was conducted in Beijing, at the level of deputy foreign ministers of Iran, China and Russia on Iran’s nuclear program amid increased US pressure. The meeting followed the closed door UNSC discussion on the subject, where concerns over Iran’s nuclear program were discussed. For China and Russia, Iran is a nation whom they would not seek to be dismantled as Syria has been as it provides them a foothold in the region.
The Chinese statement issued at the end of the summit mentioned dialogue, continuing with the terms of the JCPOA and adherence to nuclear non-proliferation. It advised against hasty intervention by either the UNSC or the US, while insisting on consultation. China also offered to mediate.
The US knows that Iran is weakened with the collapse of its proxies and its vulnerability to airstrikes due to reduced capabilities of its air defence systems. Further, with the US and Russia heading to a peace deal over Ukraine, Iran may be potentially without a major ally. The US is seizing this weakening of Iran as an opportunity to bring about a regime change in the country.
Simultaneously, China, by conducting this joint meeting is conveying that it remains Iran’s protector and would not permit it to be bulldozed or attacked. Military action against Iran, in all probability, would be led by Israel with US backing. US sanctions have impacted Iran but not to the level that the US had intended.
Further any large-scale destruction to Iran’s nuclear facilities could heat up the region and add to ongoing tensions. Without the backing of Russia and China, the US may only be able to implement sanctions and other non-military measures.
It is quite likely that the conference in Beijing could also have been an initiative undertaken by Russia and China based on discussions in the UNSC closed door meeting. Ultimately, Beijing and Moscow will push Tehran to the negotiating table, not with the US but possibly with the IAEA and few European nations, with them as moderators and guarantors. This would be a face-saving for all, while reducing the Iranian nuclear threat.
The author is Maj. Gen. (Retd.)
Follow our WhatsApp channel
