M K Dhar
Leaving aside the pronouncements and promises before and after the elections, a real test of Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s sincerity and commitment during the next five years will be his ability to eliminate the Army’s role in formulating foreign policy, improve governance and rein in the jihadists and rabid sectarian outfits that have plunged the country deep in chaos.
He has repeatedly said that he does not accept overlordship of the military, which overthrew him in 1999 and jailed and exiled him, and that this institution which has governed Pakistan for half of its existence will be brought fully under civilian control. He has promised to build a relationship of trust with India and resolve all outstanding problem through dialogue. He will wake up from the Lahore Accord which he had signed with former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to usher in a new era in Indo-Pak relations, but then Kargil happened and he was ousted by Gen Musharraf in a coup another welcome assurance though repeated often by his military and civilian predecessors as well — that he would not allow Pakistan’s territory to be used for terrorist activity against India, will now be seriously tested.
As expected, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has expressed India’s desire to work with his government in charting a new course for the relationship that is defined by peace, friendship and cooperation. The Pakistani people and political parties deserve all credit for strengthening the framework of democracy by enthusiastically participating in the elections that marked a historic transition after completion of a five-year term by any civilian government in Pakistan. India is happy to deal with a seasoned politician who knows the nitty-gritty of governance and understands the machinations of forces which sustain continued tension and acrimony between India and Pakistan. He has a keen survival instinct, is an astute businessman — among the richest in Pakistan and after being in the wilderness for over 13 years would not like to squander the opportunity to rescue Pakistan politically and economically and restore order to a country being torn apart by fundamentalism, sectarianism, jihadism and military-patronised terrorism in India and Afghanistan.
His statements suggest he has a better realisation of the damage that radical Islamist groups, including Taliban of various hues have done within Pakistan itself. He knows only too well the enormity of the challenges facing him. In his last term, which Gen Musharraf abruptly ended in October 1999, his ties with right-wing groups led him into costly Islamic adventurism. Though he should have evolved in the last decade but members of his party, as well as, his brother, who is Chief Minister of Punjab, still consort openly with jihadist outfits.
Similarly, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf is a member of the Pakistan Difa Council, a collection of parties whose agenda includes continuation of hostilities in Jammu and Kashmir and Afghanistan. The PDC includes parties as the Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Jaish-e-Muhammad and is headed by former ISI Chief Hamid Gul. Imran Khan took out a long march to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa against American drone attacks and was helped by the jihadis to emerge as the largest party in the provincial Assembly, earlier controlled by the secular Awami National Party.
Admitting that terrorism has crippled Pakistan’s economy, Mr. Nawaz Sharif does not believe in use of force against jihadi outfits. He wants to explore “other options” of engagement, discussing matters with them openly, candidly and very frankly, sitting across a table. A policy and strategy should be worked out through comprehensive dialogue with all the stake-holders, including those outside Pakistan. It is certainly a very ambitious mission and one can only wish him well in implementing his strategy to wind up the jihadi and terrorist enterprise that has become so entrenched and which is supported by the Army as well — being used as instrument of state policy. India and Afghanistan know it to their cost how deeply entrenched fundamentalism and terrorism are in Pakistan, and it will need a major effort to wind up their enterprise through persuasion.
Pakistan may have decisively turned right because the religious parties support Nawaz Sharif, but his victory should make legislation and governance much easier in Pakistan. For India also the best bet is a strong civilian government which is not subservient to the Army that can change the India narrative to something New Delhi can work with. He has touched all the India buttons, including economy and trade to probing ISI’s role in 26/11, restraining Hafiz Sayeed and resolving bilateral issues through dialogue and not terrorism. He is for better trade and economic cooperation and favours grant of MNF status to India, which the PPP government had kept pending. New Delhi’s best bet would be for the new Pakistan government to focus on opening up trade and the economy. Himself a businessman, he understands that his victory is also a thumbs up for the government and an improved economy. The economy is in bad shape and Sharif will have to immediately negotiate a bailout package with the IMF.
Mr. Sherif has a bittersweet relationship with the Army, though he singles out Gen Musharraf for having staged a coup that ousted him from power. He respects the Army as an institution and is unlikely to grant further extension to Gen Kayani who retires in November. He will take special care to select the next Army Chief in order to keep out those with political ambitions or jihadi sympathies. Beyond that he may not be able to fully control the establishment because the Generals have their own way of creating situations to guarantee Army’s special status and retaining the capacity to influence external policy decisions in relation to India and Afghanistan. We shall see whether terrorist infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir stops completely and no more incidents take place. Anti-Shia sectarianism, militant jihadism and Taliban terrorism are all consequences of the military establishment’s national security policies at home and in the neighbourhood.
The first test of Mr. Sharif’s governance is to stop all extremist activity within Pakistan to restore peace and security to the people. Having tasted so much power and patronage, the extremists will not simply fade away, nor will ISI stop using them in hoursuit of certain policies of which the civilian government may not necessarily be aware. Mr. Sharif has to reclaim the national agenda from the security establishment and pull Pakistan from the abyss. [IFS]
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