By Kalyani Shankar
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are closing, and the results will be out on June 4. The aftermath of the election is not simply about winners and losers. It is about more than just the anticipated outcomes. It includes the potential for unforeseen alliances, dramatic shifts in power dynamics, and the emergence of new political forces, all of which are yet to be unveiled.
The BJP’s potential win in the election is a significant event that could reshape the political landscape. However, the outcome is uncertain, with two possible scenarios, each with implications. One scenario predicts a massive victory for the BJP, possibly even exceeding 400 seats. The other scenario suggests a more modest result for the BJP with fewer seats.
A landslide victory for the BJP could have far-reaching consequences. In a worst-case scenario, if the BJP wins fewer seats, the party could still secure support from other parties. If the party emerges as the single largest, albeit with fewer seats than in the 2019 poll, it has a plan B to form the government with the help of some neutral parties.
The strategic decisions made by the Congress party, such as reducing the number of contested constituencies, highlight the depth and complexity of Indian politics. Each move is a calculated step towards a larger goal. As the sixth phase of the Lok Sabha polls concluded on Saturday, the Congress claimed the BJP’s fate is “all but sealed,” with the INDIA bloc having already crossed the halfway mark of 272 seats and is on course for a total of over 350 seats.
The INDIA Alliance, a significant player in Indian politics, was formed by 26 Opposition parties last year to fight Modi unitedly. However, if the BJP returns to power, the alliance may face a significant challenge. Some partners, such as the Trinamool Congress and the AAP, have not fully aligned with the Congress in Lok Sabha polls, weakening INDIA bloc’s position. A BJP victory could lead to reevaluating the INDIA Alliance’s strategy, with some partners choosing to distance from the present INDIA bloc.
If the BJP wins more seats, smaller parties may rush to join the alliance. This rush may be fueled by their desire to align with the winning side, which could impact the post-election scenario. However, this rush to join the coalition may be more than just motivated by political interests. Some parties want to oppose Modi, while others see alliances as a failed attempt.
This could result in the weakening of the newly formed India coalition, as this alliance has many fair-weather friends who may ally with any party based solely on their self-interest. The BJP’s ability to secure more seats or gain support from other parties will not be a surprise. This could impact the political landscape, potentially leading to a realignment of political forces, including the INDIA Alliance. The BJP lost some crucial allies, such as SAD, a part of Shiv Sena and AIADMK. In recent period but the Party has got back TDP before the 2024 Lok Sabha poll.
The BJP could seek support from parties led by influential leaders such as Naveen Patnaik, Jagan Mohan Reddy, K Chandrashekhar Rao, Mayawati, and others. Though not aligned with any coalition, these leaders have significant political influence and have helped the BJP in the past when the ruling party needed them. Their potential role in the post-election scenario could significantly shape the political landscape.
The Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP may also reassess the situation if INDIA bloc fares badly. . Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal is ambitious and eyeing the prime ministership. He will remain in opposition. Kejriwal predicted that if Modi wins again on June 4, he will put Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar, Rahul Gandhi, and Mallikarjun Kharge in jail. He would also be sent back to jail. Kejriwal has taken a tough anti-BJP position and he has to stick to it for the political future of AAP.
The June 4 election results will show how the post poll scenario impacts the INDIA alliance, splintering or strengthening it. They will also indicate whether the BJP will become more arrogant with a hat trick under its belt. A third consecutive BJP win could embolden the party, to pursue its Hindutva programme with more vigour. (IPA)
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