Kalyani Shankar
The Gurdaspur terror attack on Monday has brought to the focus once again India’s internal security and also external threat. The fact that terrorists from across the border entered in broad daylight and killed innocent civilians and police personnel is a wake up call to strengthen intelligence network as well as the police force.
What is of concern is that Punjab, which witnessed terrorism in the eighties, has been vulnerable to terror. Monday’s incident becomes a matter of grave concern as such a terror attack happened in the state after almost eight years. Secondly, till now the terrorists targeted only Jammu and Kashmir. This expansion of terror has to be tackled with immediate attention by the security forces and Indian intelligence agencies.
The terror attack has its own foreign policy and domestic repercussions. On the foreign policy side, it poses a challenge to the normalization efforts presently under way between India and Pakistan. Ever since Narendra Modi assumed office as the Prime Minister, his foreign policy initiatives towards Pakistan have had a roller coast ride. From the surprise invitations to the neighboring heads of state a year ago for his swearing in ceremony where Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif was invited in a first move towards peace, to the terror attack in Gurdaspur it has been a rollercoaster ride.
Will this terror attack derail India’s Pakistan policy? All indications are that in spite of the provocation resumption of talks with Pakistan is set to go ahead. At the same time the Government has also not given up the option of retaliation on terror attacks as Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar had described on July 16 when Indian forces retaliated the Pakistan firing in Jammu sector calling it “reasonable but firm”. At the most the National Security Adviser level talks might be deferred by a few weeks as in any case no dates have been finalized. The Government is quite cautious in dealing with the situation and there was no knee jerk reaction. Although some of the TV channels have been screaming that Pakistan should be taught a lesson, it appears that the Government is still collecting evidence and therefore not in a hurry to make any hasty statement.
Secondly, the efforts for resumption of dialogue started after the US President Obama’s “chai per charcha” in New Delhi when he came as chief guest for the Republic Day celebrations in January. Since then things started moving and the Ufa meeting in Russia recently was also part of that effort. Therefore it is too early to say that the engagement with Pakistan might be abandoned.
Thirdly, Modi’s foreign policy is also likely to be driven by trade and commerce. As Chief Minister of Gujarat, he reached out to a number of countries including China. He also had interactions with business delegations from Karachi. Punjab chief minister Badal is a mature politician and an ally of the BJP both in Punjab and also at the Centre. Badal has been stressing for opening more trade routes between Punjab and Pakistan and so did his predecessor the Congress Chief Minister Capt. Amrendra Singh. The Punjab, Government and chambers of commerce have been lobbying for opening up the Hussainiwala-Kasur land route for trade, in addition to the Wagah-Attari border. So there is the bipartisan approach on economic relations with Pakistan. This terror attack may not change this attitude. Similarly, in Jammu and Kashmir also the Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed is for opening up more routes and more trade relations with Pakistan. Rajasthan has been demanding to open the Munabao-Khokhrapar land route for trade, while Gujarat has been urging the Centre to open land routes for trade with Sindh. Fortunately for Modi the NDA Chief Ministers rule Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Gujarat and Rajasthan and therefore any policy implementation by the Centre will not face any difficulties. Modi has been talking of a “neighbours first” policy and a neighborhood policy puts stress on connectivity, contacts and cooperation.
Above all, as former US Ambassador to India Blackwill had remarked during a conference organized by US based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) some time ago, “Every Indian Prime Minister, since the attack on the Parliament in Delhi 15 years ago, has seriously considered a military response to such incidents but stepped back.” In the past one year, Modi has been trying to demonstrate that he is neither the bully some critics believe him to be, nor the foreign policy weakling
On the domestic side, the first signal came from Punjab chief minister Prakash Singh Badal who made a significant remark that the border fencing was the job of the Centre. He said, “The terrorists didn’t come from Punjab, they come from border. If there was an input then it was their (MHA) job to seal the border. If there was input why wasn’t the border sealed?”
Another NDA ally, the Shiv Sena has always been anti Pakistan and is opposed to India having talks with the neighbor. The Sena does not hesitate to oppose some of the BJP policies openly, thus creating an embarrassing situation. After the Monday terror attack in Gurdaspur, several activists of the Shiv sena burnt the Pakistani flag in Phagwara to protest “Pak-sponsored” terror attack.
Many Pakistan watchers are of the view that the resumption of dialogue should not be given up and engagement is the best way to deal with Pakistan. This can be done only when there is a civilian Government and South Block should move forward cautiously. At the same time New Delhi also should send a signal that terror strikes will be dealt with equal force. (IPA)
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