Dr Sudershan Kumar
In today’s conflict stricken world, every country aims and desires to increase its nuclear strength. But nuclear energy, like two sides of a coin, can be a boon or a bane. India over the years has grown as a nuclear power. There is a constant endeavour to display its nuclear strength, to the world, which remains important, in an increasingly hostile world. Notwithstanding, it professes a ‘no first use’, in contrast to some who talk about nuclear weapons and threaten to use it at the slightest provocation.
A nuclear weapon is a device whose destructive potential energy is accompanied by the splitting or combining of atomic nuclei. These include ballistic missiles, atomic bombs, artillery rounds and mines. These weapons initially originated from USA under the project “Manhattan”. The first nuclear weapon was tested in 16thJuly 1945 in New Mexico. Subsequently, two atom bombs were dropped on Japan in 1945 that killed hundreds and thousands of people and their effects can still be seen today. The first Uranium bomb was dropped on 6th August with an explosion yield of around 15 Kiloton at Hiroshima. It razed and burnt 70% of all buildings and caused around 140,000 deaths by the end of 1945 with manifold increase in cancer and chronic diseases among the survivors. A second atomic bomb detonated at Nagasaki on 9th August 1945. This bomb was made of Plutonium. This nuclear device destroyed 6.7 km area of the city and killed around 74,000 people. The ground temperature had reached around 4000°C and the radiation damage was quite intense. People also had long term radiation effects in the form of leukemia and other radiation sickness diseases. This was the first incidence in the world history where atomic bombs were used to defeat the opponent. This also brought an abrupt end to the 7 year old World War-II.
Even this horrific destruction was unable to teach mankind a lesson. On the contrary, nuclear weapons continued to be developed and a large number of nuclear tests were conducted by different countries to gain supremacy over each other. These countries were USA, USSR, UK, France and China. They have accumulated nuclear weapons in large numbers and of different forms.
In South Asia, India also conducted five tests on May 12th and May 16th 1999 to demonstrate to the world the technological strength and capability available in the country. The sole aim was to use this technology for peaceful purposes. Three weeks later, Pakistan also tested their nuclear device at their test site. They were able to develop these devices with the assistance of their neighboring country. Their sole aim was to develop a weapon which can be used against India and can also act as deterrence against proxy war which they have started in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. They had realized, after fighting three wars viz 1948, 1965 and 1971 with India, that it is impossible to defeat India in conventional warfare.
In fact, the war of 1971 was historic for India and more humiliating for Pakistan because almost 93,000 Pakistani army troops were taken as Prisoners Of War by the Indian troops after they surrendered in Dhakha on 16th December 1971. This also resulted in the liberation of Bangladesh and hence creation of a new country.
They also realized that in conventional warfare they are no match with India’s armed forces in terms of their valor, superiority and technology. History stands evidence to this fact as they had lost three major wars (i.e 1948, 1965, 1971) against India. So they continued to resort to proxy war by infiltrating Mujahideen into the Kashmir Valley and creating unrest with disgruntled and anti social elements. They also tried to exploit the religious sentiments of the gentle and peace loving Kashmiri people. These local people have generally believed in principles such as Kashmiriyat, Jamhooriyat and Insaniyat. These foreign militants did not realize that India is a secular country and around 190 million Muslims are living in this country with honor, dignity and social harmony in different states. Besides, Pakistani troops had violated the cease fire agreement by providing covering fire to foreign militants for easing their infiltration into Indian territory. Further in 1999, Pakistani army regulars occupied forward posts at high altitude areas in Dras and Kargil sectors along the line of control. These posts, due cold weather, are vacated by troops from both sides during months of extreme winter. It is the norm for both armies.
Indian Army supported by IAF launched a major offensive to get these post vacated from Pakistani regulars. This also resulted in a localized war confined to the Line of actual control because of nuclear deterrence. In fact, it prevented a full scale war. The strategic concept of nuclear deterrence is to prevent war. It is the justification every nuclear state gives for the maintenance of nuclear arsenal. Therefore, the concept follows the rationale of the first use principle: the State reserves its right to use nuclear weapons in self defense against the armed attack threatening its vital security interests in terms of economy, territory and vital installations.
After the end of the cold war, the nature of threat has changed significantly. In the present world, the biggest challenge is to prevent these weapons of mass destruction falling in to the hands of terrorists/rogue states. These terrorists have no ideology; hence the policy of deterrence will not work for rogue states/terrorists. Thus, the nuclear doctrine also has to be examined in the light of these threats. Before 1999, not much was known about the Indian Nuclear Doctrine in the public domain. A draft nuclear doctrine was prepared by the National Security Advisory board (NSAB) and Indian government issued it in Jan 2003 statement spelling out India’s Nuclear Doctrine; the operationalization of its nuclear deterrence. The salient features includes the following: India will build and maintain a credible minimum deterrent following no first use posture; and will use retaliation against the nuclear attack on an Indian territory. It was also affirmed that nuclear retaliation to first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage; by civilian and political leadership through nuclear command authority nuclear warfare will not be used against a Non Nuclear State.
In contrast, the nuclear doctrine of our neighbouring country is the opposite of ours and threatens the use of nuclear weapons at their will. The author hopes that they realize the impact and effects on them before adopting this irresponsible and illogical posture, which could not only destroy them as a nation but jeopardize the stability of the entire South Asian region, including India.
(The author is former Chief Controller R and D, and Special Secretary MoD)
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