Rajan Gandhi
With the election of Ram Nath Kovind as 14th President of India, a foregone conclusion, the decimation of opposition is complete. Against a NDA strength of 336 and the opposition having more than 210 seats and a considerable majority in Rajya Sabha , still it could not give a real fight to NDA nominee. With Shiv Sena showing dissent time and again, disgruntled Akalis sidelined and considerable opposition to Vasundhra Raje government by some BJP MLA’s, opposition was in no position to take advantage of whatever visible chinks were there in NDA. Still the opposition carves for Mahagathbandhan. What will be the ideology of such amalgam, to safeguard the old profession of corruption, nepotism, bullying to name a few or mere politics to grab power and rule like kings. People are getting wiser by the day, they have shown the taste of the character in the recent elections and so just fooling around with the innocent people will never work for any party. The more they strive for such Mahagathbandhan of opportunism the more it will help NDA.
With Nitish Kumar showing his inclination of joining NDA bandwagon, BJD trying its best to save its own bastion, Mamta struggling in Bengal and congress likely to lose Karnataka and Himachal opposition unity is a bleak prospect, trying to work out something to save their sinking ships. Normally in polls people are voting by supporting or opposing the ruling party. If the people are fed up with the regime of a Government, themselves will chose an alternate and vote a party or leader who is capable of defeating the ruling party candidate. BJP under PM Modi’s leadership is on a rampage, decimating opposition parties from Panchayat to Parliament level in almost every state. BJP is not decimating opposition parties in the elections; rather the opposition is biting dust in election after election because of its negative politics. In Karnataka, Congress is facing anti-incumbency and BJP’s win is almost inevitable. In Gujarat, the main opposition party is Congress but it has not any strength left to defeat BJP there despite 3 continuous terms of anti-incumbency of BJP.
The foremost prerequisite of Mahagathbandhan is one credible leader, under whose leadership all opposition parties must unite. Who can be the alternative leader? The Congress’s choice of leader in the Lok Sabha reflects its confusion and its dilemma. Ms Sonia Gandhi and Mr Rahul Gandhi both refused to take the job .Most important, the message conveyed by Rahul Gandhi by shying away from the job is that if he cannot lead the party in opposition, can he lead it in Government, and if not, then what is the roadmap of even Congress’s recovery ,leave alone the entire opposition. Can the whole opposition operate under a would-be leader who doesn’t want to take a lead role in the Lok Sabha simply because he will be required to attend the House regularly and any sudden departures and short trips overseas will be noticed? This situation denote a crisis for the party – not a crisis of Indian democracy. Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, Navin Patnaik, Mulayam Singh Yadav are leaders whose political influence is confined and limited to their respective states, none of them can lead a united opposition. So the leader is undecided and the next condition is seamless integration between all the opposition parties. The regional political compulsions of the Left, TMC and Congress unity in West Bengal is like day dreaming. TMC will not commit a political suicide in leaving sizable seats to the Left and Congress .The same thing applies to BJD in Orissa or the situation in Kerala, will the UDF and LDF contest 2019 election by sharing seats? The most important condition is to offer a credible counter narrative to match with the narrative of Narendra Modi. The opposition just for opposition sake indulges in negative politics by preventing the Parliament from functioning, organizing street protests, hartals etc, which irks the public.
The Opposition conveniently ignored the fact that BJP had been winning almost all the major local bodies polls on a trot across the country held after demonetization. These results had proved beyond doubt that the general public had widely supported the decision, which was pitched by BJP as a radical step against corruption and black money. UP poll has further firmly established Modi’s credentials as the country’s tallest political leader, whose popularity now transcends the larger caste and now even community barriers. Positive campaigning by BJP spearheaded by Modi talking about development and jobs, the opposition parties had weaved their election narrative on a negative plank by attacking the PM over demonetization and tarring him with slurs of communalism and intolerance. UP Chief Minister and SP President Akhilesh Yadav, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi and BSP Chief Mayawati tried their best to terrorize voters by claiming that BJP coming to power would be detrimental to minorities and dalits, but that did not cut the ice with the voters. Mayawati even went a step ahead by alleging that BJP would quash reservations if it came to power. She raised issues of alleged atrocities on dalit students and fielded 100-odd Muslim candidates hoping to attract the community’s vote en bloc but the end result was zero. Over the past several months, the Opposition had been cornering Modi over alleged intolerance, raising doubts over the surgical strike, supported freedom of speech in Left dominated campuses and demonetization. The overt attempt by Opposition to woo minorities only spurred counter-polarization and benefitted BJP. Interestingly, BJP even won in several constituencies, which had sizeable Muslim population. These parties failed to gauge the mood of people, who put national interest above other issues.
Between them, the AIADMK, Trinamool Congress, BJD, TRS and the YSR Congress have 111 seats, 2.5 times the strength of the Congress. They often unite to take on the Narendra Modi Government and at other times, some or all of these parties do deals with the NDA to support some specific legislation like GST. The Congress, with an attitude of defeated, demoralized party with a sole commitment to shield its vice-president is projecting as if the Congress has written itself out of the drama of give and take policy of a matured opposition. The shrinking base of anti-BJP parties is a prelude to an Opposition-free India. By next year the Opposition is also expected to lose its clout in the Rajya Sabha as well thus loosing the built-in checks-and-balances mechanism. Opposition parties themselves are responsible for this culmination. BJP’s smart election strategies, a proactive CBI and the corruption charges against some of them have helped it undercut the Opposition. The disunity and disarray in its camp, with unbridled prime ministerial ambitions of some leaders have created a disproportionate level playing field for the Congress and the regional parties. Congress will be confined to Punjab and Puducherry as the terms of its governments in Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Karnataka will be over by next year.
Barring Mizoram, the Congress is likely to lose polls in the other three states. It is possible that after 2018, the Congress will be in power only in Punjab and tiny states – Mizoram and Puducherry – accounting for a total of 15 Lok Sabha MPs only and BJP’s Congress mukt Bharat dream is coming true. With the decimation of the Congress, BJP will then be turning their attention to the regional parties. AIDMK split in Tamil Nadu, splitting of Odisha’s ruling Biju Janata Dal in the air, with many Opposition stalwarts like TMC’s MPs accused in two Ponzi schemes, Himachal CM Virbhadra Singh, former finance minister P. Chidambaram, his son Karti, Jagmohan Reddy (YSR Congress),Chhagan Bhujbal- Ajit Pawar (NCP), Mayawati , Maran brothers- Kanimozhi (DMK) ,AAP leaders all are expected to face heat from the Enforcement Directorate and the CBI on graft allegations. BJP’s strategy will be to ensure a steady supply of electoral cannon fodder to BJP in the next few years while likely splits and desertions will weaken the Opposition. Time is over for ideological confusion and turf wars, opposition is check mated and their game is over.
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