Harsha Kakar
While officially Pak and China claim that their friendship is ‘Higher than the mountains and deeper than the oceans,’ however there is immense internal rumbling, mainly because the Pak army prefers being closer to the US and distrusts Chinese intent. Just because China is expending billions in the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) to secure its oil and other essential imports from being targeted in the Indian Ocean, Pakistan believes it can exploit it. In reality, Pakistan is playing the double game with China and the US to draw benefits from both sides.
A recent report mentions that Rawalpindi has demanded that China provide it with a second-strike nuclear capability if it desires the Gwadar port for military purposes. For Pakistan this will imply a leap in capabilities and enable it to secure itself from India. This is evidently Pakistan twisting earlier agreements. In 2017, Pakistan’s minister for ports and shipping announced that the government has given a Chinese firm a forty-year lease for handling Gwadar. At that timethe port was only for civilian purposes.
This new demand of Pakistan has irked China and talks on exploiting the port militarily have come to a standstill.Pakistan is aware that China may not relent to its demand for a second-strike capability. It is placing this condition to avoid China from establishing a naval base in Gwadar as this would damage its military ties with the US. In Sept 2023, Donald Blome, the US ambassador to Islamabad visited Gwadar, possibly displaying to the Chinese that the port may also be offered to the US.
Adding to Beijing’s concerns are increased attacks on Chinese citizens working in Pakistan, on which even their ambassador adversely commented. He mentioned, ‘It is unacceptable for us to be attacked twice in only six months,’ adding that Pakistan must take ‘effective remedial measures to prevent the recurrence of such terror acts and ensure that perpetrators are identified, caught, and punished.’
The Chinese anger stems from the fact that the Pak army appears to be doing little to enhance security of Chinese workers employed there, despite big promises. Further, while Pakistan swears publicly by the CPEC, in reality it is intentionally slowing it down. Many Pakistan is are also unhappy by the behaviour of Chinese supervisors in projects. Post every attack on Chinese citizens, PM Shehbaz Sharif rushes to their embassy to offer condolences and promises to monitor the probe himself. Just an eyewash.
The Pak army largely employs Chinese weaponry, however is aware of its shortcomings.Hence, it desperately seeks US equipment. The earlier Pak army chief, General Bajwa stated publicly in the US during his visit, prior to his retirement in 2022, that he would prefer US weapons to Chinese.
Further, Pakistan is aware that its relations with China are more from compulsion rather than choice as Pak is ignored by the west. This was highlighted by the Pak Chief of Joint Staff, General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, last year in his interaction with the German CDS on the sidelines of the Shangri La dialogue in Singapore.
While Pakistan’s debt is largely to China, it desperately needs western funding to survive. For this it must maintain ties with the US or do its bidding. It is rumoured that the ceasefire with India was implemented on directions from Washington. The ouster of Imran, following his failed visit to Moscow, coinciding with the launch of the Ukraine war, was again pushed by the US, a fact Imran has been harping on.
The Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CIS-MOA) was revived in Aug 2023 after a gap of three years which opened doors for Pakistan to get military hardware from the US. The first action that Pakistan took after signing the agreement was to reduce the number of Chinese VT-4 and SH-15 artillery guns being procured from China, for which a contract had already been inked. It is hoping that the US would provide its 155mm guns. It also obtained a USD 450 million F 16 sustenance package from the US. The Pak army has always preferred enhancing ties with the US, while the civil government projects a pro-China tilt.
To satisfy both, China and the US, the Pak army launched a new Counter Terrorist Operation, Azam-e-Istehkam, aimed at countering terrorists entering the country from Afghanistan. This is nothing new. Such operations have been launched multiple times and have had only limited impact. While it may impress the Chinese, it would also draw funding from the US. It may also lead to the Chinese sponsoring the raising of additional formations for their security.
While Chinese eye resource-rich regions of Pakistan, the US has no territorial interests in the country, hence is more preferred. Further and more importantly, ties with China are essential to counter India. As long as Indo-China ties remain tense, Pakistan feels secure. Simultaneously, Rawalpindi is aware that Washington will ensure that ties with India are peaceful as long as Pakistan does not cross India’s threshold in terrorist strikes, something they are very careful about.
Pakistan has also been making the right noises. While displaying neutrality in the Russo-Ukraine conflict it has backed the west by providing critical artillery ammunition to Ukraine. It has also gained from western objections to India’s growing proximity to Russia.
For the ruling elite and senior military officers, the US is far more attractive than China. Economically, it is the only nation with whom Pakistan has a favourable balance of payment. Many senior officials have their wards based in the US. If Pak wants to exploit its ties with Saudi Arabia, it must toe the US line.
China has understood the Pak game. It has slowed down its investments as also progress in the CPEC. The official reason given is increased terrorism and lack of funding on the part of Pakistan, while in reality it opposes the growing proximity of Pak to the US. However, after such a massive investment, as also showcasing the CPEC as the face of the Belt Road Initiative, China has little choice.
Currently it appears that Pakistan is exploiting the Chinese, while trying to cosy up to Washington. How will the scenario emerge after the arrival of the Trump administration is to be seen.
The author is Maj. Gen (Retd)
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