Harsha Kakar
The blasts in Lahore on Easter shook Pakistan’s ruling elite and the world. The blasts occurred in Punjab, a State which had been relatively calm while the rest of the nation burned. It resulted in casualties to women and children from the minority Christian community. Punjab is Pakistan’s richest and most populous province as also the Prime Ministers base state. It is also home to the Punjabi dominated military hierarchy. The immediate impact was that the Prime Minister was compelled to cancel his visit to the US for the Nuclear Security Summit and a possible meeting with Modi.
A splinter group of the Pakistan Taliban, Jamaat-ur-Ahrar claimed responsibility for the strike. This group had pledged loyalty to the IS and hence would continue to adopt extreme measures. The impact within the nation has been immense. Police and intelligence agencies have been launching raids across the state and arresting and questioning thousands of suspects. The army chief has ordered the Army to commence anti- terrorist operations in the state.To further compound the case is the open statement by the leaders of the Jamaat-ur-Ahrar that their war would cover every part of the nation.
The terror threat within the country has denied its population from witnessing any international sporting events on its soil. Since the attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Mar 2009, no nation has participated in any sporting event there. Pakistan has been forced to conduct its own events, including Pakistan Super League, their version of the IPL, in Dubai and Sharjah. Even the proposed visit of the Afghan cricket team has been cancelled. This should have been indicator enough that the world considers the internal situation in Pakistan as grim.
The implications that the blast would have on the nation are immense. Firstly, the targeting of a minority community would have the western nations hounding Pakistan for its non-minority tolerance policies. Therefore, the nation is being compelled to launch its largest security operation to trace those responsible. In early March this year, two Pakistan Government ministers’ met the Pope at the Vatican and extended an invitation from the Prime Minister to visit Pakistan this year, which he accepted. The Pope responded to the present strike by terming it as ‘hideous’ and demanded that Pakistan should ensure protection of minorities. Another incident and there would be an impact on this high profile visit.
Secondly, this state’s chief minister is Mian Shahbaz Sharif, the brother of the Prime Minister. Punjab is also the seat of economic and political power in Pakistan. It would, if terrorism is not checked immediately, affect the ruling party prospects in future elections, while simultaneously making Pakistan lose revenue. Thirdly, the state borders India and hence any terrorist activity could adversely affect the deployment and movement of troops and stores in case of hostilities. Fourthly, for Pakistan the worst implication is that the complete nation is now within the throes of terrorism. The military would now be involved in anti-terrorist operations and law enforcement across the nation. This is an indicator of a nation in trouble. The statements by US presidential candidate Donald Trump, post the strike, that Pakistan is a ‘very vital problem’ highlights the western unspoken opinion.
The message which is being conveyed to the international community at large is that Pakistan appears to be losing the battle against terror and is close to being termed as a failed state, albeit with nuclear weapons. Sindh and the western provinces are already in turmoil and have sucked in large numbers of Pakistan’s reserve formations. Pakistan occupied Kashmir, news about which barely trickles out has always been restive and where the military rules with an iron fist with powers of arrest and detention. The only state where there was some semblance of peace was Punjab, and the same is also now on the boil.
It also conveys the failure of Pakistan’s policy of state sponsored terrorism. Pakistan has over the years been following a policy of selective targeting of militant groups. It continues to support groups fermenting trouble in both Afghanistan and India as it banks on these groups to gift them J&K from India and provide strategic influence in Afghanistan, which it considers its backyard. The entire policy has failed and neither group is in a position to deliver what Pakistan desires, however their government is unwilling to accept the fact. There is also a fear in the military and the ISI that any action against these groups could result in them turning their guns inwards, a situation Pakistan is unprepared for. Therefore, in spite of a deluge of proof against JeM and LeT no serious action is taken against their leaders.
The Pakistan Taliban and its breakaway factions entice volunteers by attacking only those sects or religions which form a minority in the country. Therefore, the targets are Christians, Shias or Ahmadis. Further the Pakistan Taliban was carved from the Afghan Taliban, with Pakistan members breaking away in disgust, and the breakaway group which claimed responsibility for Lahore was a further breakaway from the Pakistan Taliban. Therefore, it is clear that supporting some terrorist groups was a strategic mistake and has backfired against the state. The snakes in their backyard have begun to strike those who placed them there.
For the world, a nuclear state in a terror quagmire is a worst case scenario. The west continues to support Pakistan fearing its abilityto safeguard its nuclear assets, mainly its tactical nuclear warheads. However, Pakistan should realize that it cannot contain an ever increasing number of splinter groups nor can it delay action till the nation is virtually on the throes of collapse.In reality unless it is compelled, it would hesitate to act. In case that happens, then it could well follow the Syrian example.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
feedbackexcelsior@gmail.com
Follow our WhatsApp channel