Brig Arun Bajpai
Recently American Think Tank “Council on Foreign Relations” has come out with a revelation that the way Pakistan is increasing its nuclear arsenal, by 2020 it will have 200 nuclear warheads almost at par with China. With China and Pakistan having joined hands against India, this is a major threat for India which India must address sooner than later.
In 1971 Indo -Pak War, after suffering a humiliating defeat from Indian hands in which Pakistan lost half its country as independent Bangladesh and almost one lakh Pakistani Army personnel, so called an elite force, surrendering to Indian army, then Pakistani Prime Minster Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had vowed that Pakistan will build a nuclear bomb even if it has to eat grass. Pakistan got its nuclear bomb by the Chinese help in 1988.Using this nuclear capability as shield from this very year Pakistan launched its proxy war against India, first in Kashmir and then rest of India, making use of non sate actors, the jehadis. Pakistani army and ISI have been training, equipping and nurturing these jehadis on its soil as the main terror making tool against India. In the last 26 years of this Pakistan imposed proxy war, India has lost more than 5000 armed forces personal who got martyred and 72000 civilians in J&K State alone. Agreed that Indian Army has killed more jehadis than these numbers but as for Pakistani army and ISI, life of these jehadis does not matter. They are just cannon fodder to them.
Needless to say, this is a total asymmetrical war in which India is losing the lives of its highly trained and motivated soldiers while Pakistan is losing all its junk whose life does not count and the main actors the Pakistani army and ISI sit across the border enjoying the scenery and the sunshine. The case in point is the latest jehadi terror attack on the eve of 26\11 Eighth anniversary in Arnia Sect of J&K state. After 30 hours of gun battle all the four jehadis were killed but three Indian Army soldiers also got martyred and five civilians killed. This war can carry on endlessly with only Indian army getting bruised. Only way to win this war and turn the tables on Pakistan is to make Pakistani army also suffer the casualties and pay the price for their mischief.
Till date whenever Indian political class felt enough is enough and like in Kargil in 1999 and OP Prakraman in 2002 decided to teach Pakistan a lesson, Pakistan started rattling its nuclear capability and our political resolve waned. Our roar becoming a whimper. After 2008 then Cong led UPA Government announced that now there will be no talks with Pakistan till it mends it ways but within one year we were again talking to them. Pakistan read Pakistani army knows our lack of political resolve and has been exploiting this weakness to the hilt. Now with the new Modi government at the helm and its tough stand on Pakistan, it is time we think out of box and come out with ways and means to neutralise this Pakistani nuclear shield and punish Pakistani Army.
To neutralise this shield India has to take both offensive and defensive measures. In cold war days both America and USSR used to check mate each other by keeping their nuclear powered submarines fitted with nuclear capable missiles in ready to fire mode, 100 to 200 kms away from each other’s shores submerged for months in deep sea. It needs to be understood that it is very difficult if not impossible to detect the presence of nuclear powered submarines since they are mobile and very quiet. The biggest offensive advantage we have against Pakistan is that we have been operating a nuclear powered submarine leased from Russia for more than decade. So the Indian Navy is fully trained in operating and maintaining these type of submarines which is a very complex task. Agreed that this submarine we cannot use for carrying nuclear missiles due to international pact but now we have built three Arihant Class nuclear powered submarines one of which is already in sea trial mode. We also have developed and tested Sagarika nuclear capable missile with a range of 700 kms for this submarine .So the need of the hour is that India should go all out to make these three Arihant class subs operational with nuclear capable missiles mounted. Imagine at any point of time just two of these submarines lurking in deep sea 100-200 kms from Pakistani coast with their nuclear capable missiles on ready to fire mode. No Pakistani general will then be able to rattle its nuclear arsenal because Indian nuclear response in its declared second strike capability and annihilation of Pakistan is then assured.
On the defensive side India has already made a big headway in anti ballistic missile system. Now India must go for operationalising this system in full steam. Also in the recent Gaza flare up Israel which faces almost the same problem vis a vis its neighbours as India does, has demonstrated the capability of its Iron Dome missile in shooting down incoming missiles which are not ballistic. So India must approach Israel which in any case is one of the main arms suppliers to India for joint R&D and then joint production of anti missile systems.
Finally what is most important is that Indian political class should now take the three Armed forces Chiefs in confidence and start taking their professional advice as against the unprofessional and amateurish advice of the clueless Babus sitting in Ministry of defence (MOD).The presence of the three Armed forces chiefs in all meetings of Cabinet Committee on Security should be made compulsory and not optional as of now to be called when needed. Once we have these measures in place and we are able to neutralise Pakistan’s nuclear shield Pakistan will then sing a different tune as it did before 1988.
(The author is Defence and Strategic Analyst)
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