S K Bhat
With the Indian policy makers, amid limitations, still dilly dallying on the possible counter to Pakistan with respect to teaching a lesson without going to war after having risen from the slumber, albeit belatedly, and just making rhetoric outbursts and calling for max use, let us try to understand Pakistan’s vested interest vis-a vis the Indus Water Treaty by pin-pointing the underlying factors for the dispute between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir and those that are central to any definitive settlement.
Actually what punctures Pakistan and makes it act the way it is doing for last so many decades is the sense of fear psychosis in the minds of the successive policy makers of Pakistan that some day India would back-track on the Indus Water Treaty. Even though these apprehensions are misplaced as the IWT has already survived three wars and India is still fulfilling its obligations as envisaged in the Treaty but the people at helm in Pakistan seems to be suffering from paranoid delusions on this count and in order to assuage their such feelings and ensure that India continues to abide by the Indus Water Treaty obligations, Pakistani apparatus adopts such mechanisms to keep India under continuous pressure through policy of state sponsored cross-border terrorism. And in this context Pakistan is, of and on, projecting all this in the shape of a dispute- be it the so called dispute of Jammu and Kashmir, the alleged dispute of Jhelum river or for that matter the Wullar Barrage dispute or the Baglihar Project dispute- the motive is the same- to keep India under constant pressure so that it does not get off the hook from the Indus Water Treaty obligations. Pakistan has, even to this end, often sought arbitration proceedings just on mere impression that India may do so, seeking to dissuade its, otherwise generous, neighbor from tinkering with the status quo.
And in line with this objective Pakistan is even opposing independence for Jammu and Kashmir because then automatically the Indus Water Treaty will not hold good and will, by default, get scrapped as all the three WESTERN rivers (the J&K state of India rivers: Indus, Jehlum and Chenab) on which Pakistan has exclusive rights as of now, as per Treaty, will then be in independent J&K over which then India will have no jurisdiction either and, as such, will not be bound by any treaty obligation. Thus by default the treaty will become null and void. As such Pakistan does not favour independence of J&K and rather wants to annex it by hook or crook. Untill then Pakistan is keeping India under constant pressure so that it does not get off hook from the Indus Water Treaty obligations. Even the greater autonomy to J&K will harm Pakistan’s interest because in that case also J&K will demand the scrapping of Indus water treaty or subject of water will move to the state list and only an autonomous J&K would have the right to decide on this aspect. In fact, it is this eagerness that, some where down the line, Pakistan harbored the idea that why not be the owner of the water source rather than depend on India and the Indus Water Treaty and that is exactly why it acts the way it is with the unscrupulously nursed idea to annex Jammu and Kashmir with it to ensure that the water problem for it is solved for good. As such to wrest Kashmir originates in this desire to take control of its rivers and not out of any concern for the people of Kashmir.
Now that India is mulling to turn the tap off on the 56-year-old Indus Waters Treaty which has become a rallying point for many to defeat Pakistan without going to war and it is being suggested to either revisit or abrogate the treaty as it would be the easiest way to punish the neighboring country that refuses to control terrorism emanating from its soil, dully aided and abetted by it. This could really be India’s weapon against Pakistan and would at the same time address the sentiment of people of the state of Jammu and Kashmir besides making them self reliant in the realm of electricity and agriculture production besides surging the state on the path to industrial development since, till date, the method of perceiving the Treaty has been detrimental to the interests of the J&K people especially to the farming community who have to depend on the mercy of Rain Gods and in spite of such a plenty have to negotiate their living with such a water scarcity.
Even though the union Government has, as of now, just hinted at using the waters to the maximum in accordance with the existing provisions of the Indus Water Treaty but the experts are of the opinion that even under the current provisions, we can make use of the waters of the WESTERN rivers (the J&K state of India rivers: Indus, Jehlum and Chenab) for irrigation, storage, and even for producing electricity, in the manners specified in the Treaty. And even if we are able to just do what we are entitled to under the Treaty, it would be enough to nail Pakistan into submission. According to some experts if India starts making provision for storage facility involving the WESTERN rivers, which it is allowed under the treaty up to 3.6 million acre feet and which it has not done so far, it would send strong signal without doing anything drastic. Besides this India must put another clause to practice which allows India agriculture use of 7 lakh acres above the irrigated cropped area as on April 1, 1960.
As for as other strict counter measures of any credence are concerned: India should urgently commission dams on Chenab and Jhelum and pace up work on Krishenganga and deny Pakistan water during sowing and lean flow periods by undertaking the one-time filling of all such dams. Even though being a one time tactic it is sure to make some resonance in Pakistan so that they can be brought round the corner and made to listen, reciprocally. Besides another credible option is to engage with Afghanistan to create infrastructure on Kabul river that flows into Pakistan through the Indus basin which can also act as a likely deterrent. With the change of times and the rise in population, the needs of a high riparian country India are not met with a mere 20 per cent allocation as against the full 80 per cent to the a low riparian country Pakistan. The whole gamut is obviously unjustified for the Pakistan to continue managing the lions share in spite of being a low riparian country and then on the top of it acting in the way it does. The change in terms between two countries also mandates at least an amendment to Indus Water Treaty through a neutral arbitrator.
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