SINGAPORE, Feb 7: Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Thursday as investors expect a marginal drop in January stocks, although cautious sentiment ahead of the upcoming long holiday capped gains.
Lower production likely helped Malaysian palm oil stocks to ease in January from a record-high in the previous month, a Reuters survey of five plantation companies showed on Thursday.
Inventory level most likely dropped 2.9 percent to 2.55 million tonnes in January from December’s all-time high, the first decline since last June, according to the survey.
A stronger export demand seen during the last week of January may have helped ease stocks and the demand trend could stay given palm oil’s attractive discount to soybean oil and as worries eased over China’s stricter quality regulation.
‘Stocks are expected to drop due to exports picking up towards end-January,’ said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
By the midday break, the benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had gained 0.8 percent to 2,566 ringgit ($829) per tonne. Prices were rangebound between 2,530 and 2,566 ringgit.
Total traded volumes stood at 15,163 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the average 12,500 tonnes.
Technical analysis shows palm oil is expected to fall to 2,510 ringgit per tonne, as indicated by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci retracement analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
The Malaysian financial markets will be closed next Monday and Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday. Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release January inventory and output data after the market resumes trading on Wednesday.
Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance will issue export data for Feb. 1-10 also on Wednesday.
The market will be looking for trading direction from this Friday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly supply and demand reports, which may be bullish for palm oil due to a possibly tighter soybean stocks.
In other markets, Brent crude was steady in a tight range under $117 per barrel on Thursday as traders waited for the outcome of a European Central Bank meeting and China trade data for more evidence the global oil demand outlook was improving.
In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. Soyoil for March delivery eased 0.3 percent in early Asian trade. The most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange hit a one-week low.
(agencies)
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