Hamid Bukhari
Kashmir elections….. high voter turnout, voting on communal lines, separatists rendered illegitimte…..why ?
16th Lok-Sabha elections has set a new precedent fulfilling, a distant dream of any single party crossing the magic mark of 272.This watershed development has set a new precedent and started repeating the success stories of BJP nearly in all states sweeping majority of seats across the territory of India. BJP made congress realize that it suffers from grave danger of existential threat. Apart from the exclusivist identity politics in the name of “Hindutva”- term probably coined as “Cultural Nationalism” by V.D.Savarkar who himself was an atheist portraying it the supreme ideology of nationalism, this time BJP’s rise has been driven by the dynamics of an unprecedented development promise, pan-India campaign aided by unaccounted corporate money power and emergence of a personality cult after a gap of three decades after Indira Gandhi. It led to withering away of regional political parties in national elections. The Modi system (analogy to the term “Congress-system” coined by late Rajni Kothari for Congress before the coalition era) failed in the valley of Kashmir. Despite rallies addressed by its national faces, campaign aided by film stars and highly innovative social networking allurements, it couldn’t bag a single seat from Muslim majority areas of Kashmir. The reasons are obvious. Psephologists need not to go deep into the conduit to see why rhetoric of “Sab ka saath sab ka vikas didn’t work in Kashmir”.
Ideology of a political party is no less than any preambular promise. Parties may have different manifestoes suitable to election times and circumstances but ideology is the plinth and core substance. Manifestoes are morphological types of a singular basic element, “the ideology”. BJP’s national leadership was probably misled about the ground realities in Kashmir. It was very much like someone who tempts you to sit on a branch of a hollow tree for time-being with a lollypop in hand till he cuts it from roots. You will have a free fall, for sure.
BJP is and eager to abrogate Article 370 which is perceived, debated and hence agreed upon by majority of the people, the only vital link between the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir and Union of India. Uniform Civil Code, a Right wing dictum originally found among directives of the state policy in the constitution is perceived as a weapon to reinforce majoritarian will on the religious minority. The State is called upon to intervene to make minorities respect Hindu-culture and assimilate into it by swearing allegiance to its symbols of identity and by identifying with its history. For particularly Kashmiri Muslims it was more of like confining their own religious practice to private sphere. When electioneering was at its peak in the valley, Hindu Rightist groups like VHP was busy in “Ghar wapsi” perceived by them as a genuine process of acculturation something Christopher Jefferlot terms as “majority inferiority complex.” Outcome of polls returning BJP empty handed from the valley wasn’t a surprise for many like me. This election in Kashmir undoubtedly a fair one, conducted in a series since 2002 has made problem further complex rather than solving it.
PDP widely perceived as a shield against saffron wave that engulfed the entire Jammu region got majority of seats in the valley. Voters didn’t vote for its “Self Rule agenda”. It emerged as single largest party because voters were left with no choice. They mainly wanted to remain disinfected from saffron wave and a regional party PDP was the only choice left. They also wanted Omar Abdullah to stay out of power. Anti incumbency played a part especially at a time when Government was found missing on the ground during flood crisis. The mandate given to PDP was against BJP. This time National Conference’s so called “autonomy formula” received an outright rejection. People have understood that such promises are theoretical without any application on ground. New guidelines of the Apex court now included in Part3 in “Model code of conduct” have made parties to think on the feasibility of fulfillment of the promises before publishing them in their manifestoes. Political Parties are bound to give reasons and reflect the rationale behind every populist and promising move. Mere promise isn’t sufficient. Parties are duty bound to broadly indicate ways and means of fulfilling those promises if voted to power. How could both NC and PDP restore pre 1953 situation (Autonomy and Self Rule) in Kashmir without support of the Parliament of India remains a question?
High voter turnout in Kashmir has changed power equations and kept separatist lobby shocked. They time and again appeal people on the nerves to boycott all sort of polls that have legal sanction in the constitution of India. This time people defying their boycott calls voted in higher percentages. Votes were polled for day to day governance and welfare measures keeping the sanctity of Kashmir issue intact. People in Kashmir certainly didn’t vote for further erosion of their legal autonomy for the sake of development. Kashmir is still widely perceived as a political issue rather than a developmental deficiency.
More surprises will come if PDP forms a coalition with BJP. In coalition politics it is difficult to arrive at a common minimum program especially when the diverging opinions are the only similarity between parties. PDP has categorically rejected unconditional support offers from both the Congress and National conference. It played a well calculated move especially at a time when Planning commission was scrapped and Niti Ayoug cames into picture. Distinction between plan and non-plan expenditure has a blurred line in between. To gain smooth fiscal and economic channel with zero friction it is imperative for PDP to make a coalition with a party at the Centre. Coalition between PDP and BJP is the only true balance between Jammu and Srinagar where votes are divided purely on communal lines. This may be a short term fiscal gain for PDP but it is widely seen by political analysts as political suicide for PDP.
The election has opened a complex Pandora’s box. Are separatists rendered illegitimate? Will they follow the precedent set by Sajjad Lone and enter the main stream? Is Kashmir issue resolved? Has high voter turnout ended long existing legitimation crisis in Kashmir? Time will decide!
(The author is ex-student Islamic University)
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