Rekha Chowdhary
As the Lok Sabha elections have been announced, political parties in J&K have got into electoral mode. Though electoral fight in each constituency will be interesting to watch, yet, the most interesting electoral arena will the newly reframed Anantnag-Rajouri constituency. This is one constituency which has defied the regional compartmentalisation and covers areas both in Kashmir and Jammu regions. Of the 18 Assembly segments that it covers, 11 are located in Kashmir region and 7 in Jammu region. In Jammu region, it covers districts of Poonch and Rajouri (except Sundarbani-Kalakote) and in Kashmir, it covers districts of Anantng, Kulgam and a part of Shopian district. To complete the details, the constituency covers seven segments in Anantnag district (Dooru, Kokernag, Anantnag West, Anantnag, Srigufwara-Bijbehra, Shangus-Anantnag (East) and Pahalgam); three in Kulgam district (Devsar, Kulgam, D H Pora) and one in Shopian district (Zainpora). On Jammu side, it includes four Assembly segments of Rajouri district (Nowshera, Rajouri, Budhal and Thanamandi) and three of Poonch district (Surankote, Poonch-Haveli, Mendhar). In terms of population, the break up of the constituency is 62 percent on Kashmir side and 38% on the side of Jammu region.

Election Watch

The constituency is peculiar not only in terms of its geographical features extending itself on the two sides of Pir Panchal range but also in terms of the rich diversity of religious communities, cultural, linguistic and ethnic groups. A constituency of mixed Hindu-Muslim population, is host to people of three ethnic groups – Kashmiris, Paharis and Gujjars. Each of these three ethnic groups, interestingly has been articulating and asserting a distinctive identity politics. While Kashmiris are located mostly across the Pir Panchal range in Anantnag/Kulgam districts, Gujjars and Paharis though mostly located in Rajouri-Poonch areas, but are also located across the Pir-Panchal. On Kashmir side, it also has a significant number of migrant Kashmiri Pandit votes.
makes election to this constituency interesting is not only the fact that it is a newly re-framed constituency that extends itself on two sides of Pir Panchal and touching both the Kashmir and Jammu regions but also the possibilities attached with this constituency. It is rather an ‘open’ constituency with different parties staking their claims about their strength here and a number of conceivable outcomes. The situation is not so open for other four constituencies. There is a kind of ‘fixed’ nature of contest in two constituencies of Jammu and Udhampur where the major competition will take place between BJP and Congress (Kashmir-based parties don’t see much scope for themselves here). In two constituencies of Srinagar and Baramula contest will take place mainly between NC and PDP, and may be PC (Jammu based parties like BJP don’t see much scope for themselves here). However, in case of Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, one doesn’t see such a fixity and almost every major political party active in J&K will be competing here.
To understand the claims of different parties in this constituency, it may be pertinent to focus on the past background of the constituency and also take into consideration the present scenario. For understanding the history of the constituency, one needs to break up the exercise in two parts: a) to view the history of Anantnag constituency (with the caveat that the present constituency represents only a part of it) and; b) to understand the background of Rajouri and Poonch’s political responses. As the history of Anantnag parliamentary constituency shows, this constituency during the last two and half decades has been alternatively with NC and PDP. In 1998, this constituency was won by Mufti Mohammed Sayeed who contested on Congress ticket and soon thereafter formed the PDP. In 1999, however, NC registered its victory here. While Mehbooba Mufti of PDP won this seat in 2004, in 2009 it was Mehboob Beg of NC who won this seat. In 2014 again it was Mehbooba Mufti and in 2019, the seat was won by Hasnain Masoodi of NC.
On the Poonch-Rajouri side, these two districts were part of Jammu-Poonch Parliamentary constituency where Congress was the dominant party till 1996, but in 1998 and 1999, it was the BJP which won the constituency. Congress won in 2004 and 2009, but in 2014 and 2019, it was the BJP which won the constituency. Since the data for Jammu-Poonch Parliamentary constituency does not give a complete picture of Poonch-Rajouri, one may also refer to the electoral response in the six Assembly segments of two districts during the Assembly elections (the seventh segment Kalakote, is not a part of the constituency). In 1996, it was mainly the NC which won most of the Assembly seats (one seat had gone to Congress); in 2002, NC had won a large number of seats with the exception of one that went to Congress. In 2008, six Assembly segments had been divided between Congress, NC and PDP (with two seats each). In 2014 three segments had gone to PDP, One to BJP and one to Congress.
One can see how complex the party scenario comes out and one can also understand as to how and why different parties including NC, PDP, Congress and BJP have been eyeing this constituency as their stronghold. NC has clearly stated its position vis-a-vis this constituency by declaring three seats of Anantnag, Baramulla and Srinagar as non-negotiable in terms of alliance within the INDIA block. Arguing that as the sitting MPs in these constituencies are belonging to the NC, the party is not open to any alliance here. For the NC, the constituency holds sufficient political importance. To establish that it has its hold in its area of influence in Kashmir valley, it can’t afford to be not contesting the election in this constituency.
The constituency has its importance for PDP also – not only because Mehbooba Mufti has been MP twice from this constituency (and has also been MLA from different Assembly segments of this constituency) but South Kashmir has been the bastion of the PDP. Not contesting election from this constituency now would be a difficult decision for the party leading to its political isolation. It is for this reason that Mehbooba Mufti has been seeking to negotiate for this constituency for PDP within INDIA Block.
BJP meanwhile has been eyeing this constituency not only because it has had some hold in Poonch-Rajouri area during 2014 Assembly election but also because this party has very consciously invested in this constituency. It sought to woo the Gujjars initially by fulfilling their long-held demand for political reservation and reserving 9 Assembly seats for ST communities (six of 9 of these reserved seats lie within this newly reframed constituency) and more recently, it fulfilled the demand of Pahari people to grant them ST status.
With Gujjars and Paharis forming a formidable block of non-Kashmiri voters, the BJP is seeing its chance of its success in this constituency. Though initially it seemed that Gujjars would be unhappy with Paharis being granted the ST status (which they have been opposing from the beginning), but with Paharis reservation not touching the Gujjars, BJP is confident that it will be able to get the support of Gujjars as well as Paharis. Paharis, in any case are enthused with the ST status and many of their leaders had earlier stated that they would support BJP if they get the ST status. This support is getting reflected in many Pahari leaders joining the BJP – the more recent example being of two prominent NC leaders Shahnaz Ganai (ex MLC) and Mushtaq Ahmad Bukhari (ex MLA) joining BJP.
Being an open constituency, competition will not remain restricted here to NC, PDP and BJP but other parties – both Kashmir based ones like People’s Conference, Apni Party and Jammu based ones like Congress and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s DPAP may also enter the fray or enter in one form or the other.
The competition will be intense and in the end there may be different factors operating in deciding the outcome. One factor that is being considered important is related to voter response in Kashmir and Jammu side. On Kashmir side, the Anantnag constituency has a poor record of voter turnout. With South Kashmir having remained a hub of militancy and boycott politics, it has a history of lower voter turnout. Voter turnout was 15.04 percent in 2004, 27.10 percent in 2009, 28.84 percent in 2014 and 8.96 percent in 2019. If this trend of lower voter turnout continues, the voter response of Poonch-Rajouri will become decisive. But much would depend upon the nature of political mobilisation and the nature of electoral campaign.
Voter response in Poonch-Rajouri area meanwhile is certainly going to be quite enthusiastic – much more so among the Pahari voters here. With the ST status being granted, they would come out to vote in larger numbers.
On the whole, it would be interesting electoral fight in this constituency and the electoral outcome would have long-term implications for the future politics of J&K.
(Feedback welcome at rekchowdhary@gmail.com)

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