D K Pandita
In 2021, 134 million babies were born worldwide. In the future, the number of newborns is expected to slightly increase to reach 138 million annually between 2040 and 2045, despite the continuous decline in the average number of births per woman. In 2021, most births worldwide occurred in the two most populous regions – Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The population on the earth is now marching to more than eight billion. In the early periods population of the world grew very slowly. It is only during the last few hundred years that population has increased at an alarming rate. The global population will reach 8 billion on November 15, 2022, more than three times the population of 2.5 billion in 1950. It took 123 years for the population to double to 2 billion in 1927. Since then, the number of years taken to add a billion people has only dropped. The last billion, which will take the population to 8 billion later this year, will be added in just 11 years.
The findings come in the backdrop of a decrease in fertility rates across the globe. The UN report finds that in 2020, for the first time since 1950, the rate of population growth fell below 1 per cent per year and it is projected to continue to slow in the next few decades and through the end of this century. In 2021, the average fertility of the world’s population stood at 2.3 births per woman, having fallen from about 5 births per woman in 1950. Global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman by 2050. The latest UN projections suggest that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.4 billion in 2100.
World Population Indian Population Year Years it took to double
100 crores 16.9 crores appox. 1804
200 crores 25.20 crores appox 1927 123
300 crores 43.59 crores 1959 32
400 crores 60.88 crores 1974 15
500 crores 81.97 crores 1987 13
600 crores 101.95 crores 1998 11
700 crores 125.03 crores 2011 13
800 crores 141.19 crores 2022 11
Source : United National Population Fund
The population of China was 1,144 million in 1990 compared with India’s at 861 million then. The UN projections say that by 2050, India’s population will reach 1,668 million, far exceeding China’s declining population at 1,317 million. The global population by 2050 would have touched 9.7 billion. The world’s two most populous regions in 2022 were Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, with 2.3 billion people, representing 29 per cent of the global population, and Central and Southern Asia, with 2.1 billion (26 per cent). China and India accounted for the largest populations in these regions, with more than 1.4 billion each in 2022, says the report. Central and Southern Asia is expected to become the most populous region in the world by 2037.
The 2019 World Population Prospects report had said that India would overtake China by 2027. So, we knew that India was going to overtake China in a matter of a few years. If we look at it over the last 50 years, India’s growth rate stood at 2.3 per cent in 1972, which has dropped down to less than 1 per cent now. In this period, the number of children each Indian woman has during her lifetime has come down from about 5.4 to less than 2.1 now. This means that we have attained the Replacement Fertility Rate, at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next. Usage of modern contraceptives is rising across the country and the desired fertility rate for all communities in India is less 2, according to the latest National Family Health Survey data. Increasing rates of migration also contribute to changing population patterns across countries particularly South Asia clocks some of the highest emigration trends, according to the report with India seeing an estimated net outflow of 3.5 million between 2010 and 2021.
About 9.4 per cent of Indian women have an unmet need for contraception, which means that approximately 22 million women want to stop or delay childbearing but do not have access to a method of contraception. Our focus should be on providing women of all communities’ access to family planning services. We should also capitalize on our large young population; about 30 per cent aged between 10 and 24. The government needs to play a pivotal role and invest in education, health and creating economic opportunities for young people, which would help us harness what economists call demographic dividend.
The people of a country are its real wealth. It is they, who are the actual resources and make use of the country’s other resources and decides its policies. Ultimately a country is known by its people. It is important to know how many women and men a country has, how many children are born each year, how many people die and how? Whether they live in cities or villages, can they read or write and what work do they do?
India has many places where there are fewer people and many places where there are many people, giving our country a very complicated agglomeration of highly dense cities in a span of hundred kilometers and swathes of less densely populated villages between them.
The root cause of Indian poverty, pollution and corruption are alleviated by India having the second highest density of population with 464 persons per sq.km. with absolute outliers on both sides of the curve, case in point: Bihar and Ladakh. The reasons are ; (i) Availability of water as people prefer to live in areas where fresh water is easily (as is the case with Punjab and the Gangetic plain) (ii) People prefer living on flat plains and gentle slopes, so these areas tend to be more populated (as is the case with the plains in general) (iii) An extreme climate such as very hot or cold deserts are uncomfortable for human habitation having very low population. And finally, (iv) Historically continuous habitation (Example the Andhra region, Tamil Nadu and again, North India in general)
The population growth or population change refers to the change in number of inhabitants of a territory during a specific period of time. This change may be positive as well as negative. It can be expressed either in terms of absolute numbers or in terms of percentage. Population change in an area is an important indicator of economic development, social upliftment and historical and cultural background of the region.
A small increase in population is desirable in a growing economy. However, population growth beyond a certain level leads to problems. Of these the depletion of resources is the most serious. It indicates that resources that had supported a population earlier are now insufficient to maintain the population. Access to family planning services is a significant factor in limiting population growth and improving women’s health. People across the Country are already living with the devastating consequences of changing climate, intensifying and increasing the frequency and impact of extreme weather events. Rising level of rivers particularly during rainy seasons and changing weather patterns threaten the livelihoods and land of millions. Even as we work tirelessly to reduce emissions, further change is inevitable. We know that the most vulnerable are at the greatest risk from climate change, and that they have done the least to cause it. India is committed to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030 in its “Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use” and reduction of Carbon footprint by 2050.
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