By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Lok Sabha Election 2024 results have shown a drastically declined political worth of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, that has quantified it with a BJP’s win of only 240 seats, much less than 303 it had won in 2019. Public opinions differ on the question if his personal political stature has been declining further – some believe in affirmative, some in negative, and some stable. Nevertheless, October 8, 2024 is set to quantify it when election results of Haryana and Jammu &Kashmir Vidhan Sabha will be out, and hence his political worth is once again at stake, the second time after June 4, when Lok Sabha election results were declared.
Just as Lok Sabha elections were contested with PM Narendra Modi as BJP’s mascot, the elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir are also being contested in his name. Therefore, Haryana and J&K results will show how much of his political worth remains in terms of BJP’s win of legislative assembly seats. Indications emanating from the political battlefield show his declining political worth in his own political parties that is reflected in large number of rebellion candidates in the fray who refused to obey his political diktats especially in reference to denial of tickets. Many former BJP leaders are contesting against the official candidates after leaving the party or after being expelled. This scenario is a clear indication that PM Modi’s political worth is at stake.
Voting for the last phase of Jammu & Kashmir elections for 40 seats took place on October 1 , and it seems to be robust so far, as in the earlier phases of elections for 50 Assembly Constituencies in the first two phases – 24 in the first phase on September 18 and 26 in the second phase on September 25.A total of 61.38 per cent of votes were cast in the first phase and 57.31 per cent in the second phase. Such a robust voting is not an ordinary thing in J&K especially in the backdrop of continued terror and counter-terror attacks in the Union Territory. The election result would therefore reflect the peoples will with respect to PM Narendra Modi’s policies and programmes being implemented and promises given.
Restoration of statehood has been promised by the PM Modi, but it has not been restored yet, and he has not declared any timeframe for doing so. It is one of the important issues in the election since all the national and regional political parties have promised to restore statehood if they come to power. Election result will show how people of Jammu and Kashmir reacted to the promises made to them in this regard.
Development of Jammu & Kashmir is PM Modi’s major political plank along with establishing peace in the state and defeating Pak sponsored terrorism, and homegrown separatism. He has been talking about creating ‘New Kashmir’, but one of the political parties Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) leader Engineer Rashid has vowed to defeat PM Modi’s very agenda of ‘New Kashmir’. Engineer Rashid has been a separatist and lodged in jail, but he had won the Lok Sabha Election from Baramulla while in jail. The banned Jamat-e-Islami, that had never participated in election, has now supported several independents. Large number of independents in the fray is a special phenomenon in this election.
PM Narendra Modi’s “New Kashmir” agenda has therefore been put on test, not only on the issues of development, restoring peace, uprooting terrorism and separatism, but also on restoration of the abrogated Article 370of the Constitution of India that provided special status to Jammu and Kashmir. Regional parties have vowed to restore Article 370, while BJP has said there will be no question of it. BJP has said Article 370 was the root cause of separatism in Jammu and Kashmir. Since PM Modi is mascot of all these, the result will show his worth in the eye of the people of this UT.
PM Modi is also the mascot for Haryana Vidhan Sabha election on whose name votes are being sought to be cast. BJP’s performance had been so bad – especially in respect of socio-political point of view, that PM Modi was obliged to change the then chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar just before Lok Sabha election. He brought a new chief minister Nayab Singh Saini from OBC community. Even though the people of Haryana reduced the party to just half –from all 10 seats to 5 – in the Lok Sabha election, despite PM Modi being party’s mascot.
It was a sheer humiliation for a double engine government in Haryana – led by two drivers PM Modi at the Centre and CM Saini in the state. The election for Haryana is scheduled for October 5, and the election campaigns are nearing its peak. Infighting and rebellion in the state is worse than it was seen in Jammu and Kashmir. Party is struggling to retain its 10 year rule in the state, while Congress seems to be stronger in much more seats that the BJP. PM Modi has obviously very high stake, which will make or mar his political stature – within the party and in the country, for votes are being sought in his name and his policies, programmes and promises, his reliability and his political worth. (IPA
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