Harsha Kakar
The nation was still grieving over the losses of security personnel in the Pulwama suicide attack, while political issues are showing their ugly face. As the last rites and grief moved away from public glare, political battles began to rise. Three aspects gained ground in the political arena, the timing of the attack, responsibility for the lapses and desire to seek retribution.
It is known that there was an intelligence failure, a fact even accepted by the J and K Governor. Investigation revealed that the RDX used in the attack came from Pakistan and was carried in small lots. With JeM claiming credit, the involvement of Pak was evident. The question being raised was that would the failure of intelligence agencies operating under the NSA impact the ruling party.
The mood of the nation was evidently retribution and revenge. The Government acted swiftly. It removed Pak from the list of Most Favoured Nations and commenced charging 200 percent duty on all their products. The impact was near immediate, their cement stocks, enroute to India were recalled. The losses were heavy and had to be borne by the manufacturers. It is stated that most of the products were from Pak army run industries. This has reduced some public anger.
Diplomatically, India began spreading the message of Pak’s involvement. France, England and the US agreed to push a resolution placing Masood Azar, the JeM supremo, on the list of UN designated terrorists. The convincing of China remained. Realistically, his entry into the list would only be a morale booster for India, nothing more. His freedom and security in Pak would remain untouched. A USD 10 Million bounty exists on Hafiz Saeed and he roams freely in Pak. The UN Security Council issued a statement for the first time condemning the attack and naming JeM.
Militarily, the PM made a simple statement. He stated that the armed forces would give a befitting reply at a time and place of their own choosing. To some extent the nation appeared satisfied with the Government’s response.
The armed forces reacted within two weeks, with the air force conducting its surgical strike taking down Pak’s largest terrorist training camp. All political parties joined the bandwagon in complimenting the armed forces for this action.
From some quarter’s questions had been rising on the timing of the incident. Ironically, they have claimed that the timing of the terror strike would benefit the BJP and provide victory to Modi. Mamta stated, ‘Why did this happen when elections are around the corner and just after the parliament session had ended?’ She added, ‘When election is knocking on the door, you have felt the need to engage in a shadow war.’
The Karnataka CM, HD Kumaraswamy, stated, ‘Why such incidents never took place during the tenure of HD Deve Gowda. There was a mutual understanding that time, why isn’t it there now?’ Mehooba Mufti continued with her pro-Pak narrative post the Pulwama attack asking for dialogue with Pakistan and separatists, while Omar also questions the withdrawal of security.
BJP leaders exploited the Pulwama suicide attack while attending the last rites of the soldiers. They were seen more for photo-ops rather than to indicate sympathy and support. Videos doing the rounds show some waving to the crowd, while others seeking to be seen in the foreground.
The Congress waited for the embers of the pyres to die down before it launched its attack. It has questioned Government failures and sought answers. The BJP sought to defend itself by deflecting the Congress questions, rather than accepting responsibility. For the Congress, it would be another subject after Rafale.
Navjot Sidhu stated that the entire country of Pakistan cannot be blamed for the incident. He stated, ‘For a handful of people, can you blame the entire nation, and can you blame an individual?’ He has been criticized across the country.
The BJP leadership has, on the other hand, projected that it is the only party which can give a befitting reply to Pakistan for its actions, terming the opposition as weak. The PM and Amit Shah in their rallies had been regularly talking of making Pak pay for the assault. The PM had been stating that he shares the sorrow of the nation, however, has never mentioned failures in intelligence and lack of impact of earlier policies. With the strike this factor would only gain more prominence.
Even strategic thinkers have been giving different versions of the timing of the strike on the forthcoming elections. Ajai Shukla, who writes for the Business Standard commented that cross-border military retaliation could win Modi an election which was otherwise doubtful. He adds, ‘Is the ISI working to get Modi elected?’ Farah Khan stated in a tweet, ‘A war would serve the purpose of winning elections by swinging electors in favour of the BJP’.
Christine Fair, a Pakistan expert, stated in an article, ‘Pakistan knows that PM Modi is facing a tighter race than he did five years ago and there is little doubt that Pakistan wants to ensure another Modi victory.’ She justifies this comment by stating, ‘Nothing suits Pakistan’s communal agenda like another Modi victory. His policies have animated the murderous proxies under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella. They have also reassured Pakistan that Muslims can never be safe in India.’ The views of strategic experts on Pak desiring a Modi victory seems doubtful. Masood Azar, the leader of JeM, now blamed for the attack stated post Pulwama, ‘If the Government of Pakistan remains strong, Modi will go further backwards. But if our Government comes under the pressure of Modi and accepts some of his demands, it can help him regain his position.’ Hence, Pak clearly does not desire his victory, hence approved of the attack.
For Pak, a coalition government at the centre, which ignores military development and had a weak foreign policy would be a benefit. It may gain more with a change of Government, which could lead to revival of SAARC and possibly reigning in of the army. It could also lead to talks, giving Pak legitimacy and the breathing space, it desperately needs, to regain control over their economy, which is presently in doldrums.
Realistically, the entire game changed with the conduct of the strike. Thus, the armed forces have indirectly chosen the next Government which will lead the country, unless there is another incident, which would require another counter strike.
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