Sir,
With the sad demise of Mufti Mohd Sayeed, the State has lost the last surviving political stalwart and statesman of post independence era. Not only he left the political vacuum but political uncertainty on the political spectrum of the state.
Mehboooba who is taken as heir apearent is at the moment is in a dilemma. If she goes by status quo then at the very threshold of her anoinment she will earn the stigma of recognising saffron party who is quite detestable in the Valley and in some other parts of Jammu province where finally PDP has hopes of survival . And if decides to snap ties with BJP then for all times get stigmatised of treachery to BJP which is heading at Centre and apparently going to ruled country for a considerable time. On the issue of grand alliance though it looks fantastic with strong regional dimensions, but then the pertinent question is how long such a alliance can survive. Both PDP and NC are politically dichotomous and if any party which has become direct victim of the emergence of PDP on pol spectrum of the State is of course NC. From two third majority in 1996 election NC was reduced miserably in Assembly election and them complete washout in Loksabha election only on account of burgeoning popularity of PDP. So chances are very bleak that these arch rivals will share power cake together and for a long time. Now comes the option of PDP-Cong alliance. But the past of bonhomie too is not so encouraging. Though human memory is short but fact is that Cong PDP alliance headed by Azad broke unilaterally by PDP when Cong wanted its survival with the support of PDP.
Then there is also an opinion floating in some circles that Mehbooba is bit tough and radical as compared to his late father and this attitude is antithesis of coalition mantra.
At the same time the anti-status quo element in the Valley have altogether not taken the PDP BJP alliance in good taste and Geelani the superb anti status quo voice while conveying her condolences to Mehbooba has categorically told her to snap ties with BJP.
There is simmering discontent in PDP itself for the alliance with BJP which in their estimation has proved more bane than boon for the party especially in the valley and for its survival.
And then if BJP is kept out with 25 seats in Assembly who apparently represents the Jammu voice with strong regional and religious overtures, is of course a big challenge for any such alliance which is described by many as grand alliance headed by Mehbooba as CM.
Last but not the least, the challenge for Mehbooba will also be to keep her flock together . Of course inspite of strong grievances and discontentment within the party it was the very tall and mature personality of Mufti Sayeed which kept at bay all such dissenting voices, but whether Mehbooba will lead the flock together with same charisma as her father did, is a moot point to be finally judged in times to come. Political pundits are not so optimistic.
Yours etc…
Khurshid Bismil
Thanamandi Rajouri