Brij Bhardwaj
Will India become a five trillion economy by 2029 is a million dollar question. This question has become all the more important as India has now replaced China as a country with largest population in the world. Now it has become more critical that India should also grow as an economic power .We have many factors working in our favour like a democratic set up and younger population, as compared to China.
The slow down of Chinese economy with ageing population has given us an opportunity to give a big boost to manufacturing sector. Many companies which went to China with huge investments are now looking at India as an alternative. With our seven per cent growth we have overcome impact of two years of slow down faced because of Covid. Now we are amongst the fastest growing economy, among the major economies.
Our exports have also shown unexpected buoyancy by growing at 14 percent during 2023-24 valued at over 770 billion U.S dollars. If this growth is maintained in years to come economy is bound to boom. This has happened despite the fact that world-wide there is slow down if not recession because there is no end to war in Ukraine. Major growth areas have trade with USA and Russia. Imports from China have grown despite no rise in exports. There is a move to cut down the same.
The major challenges facing India are high rate of interest which has slowed down investment. The Reserve Bank of India has raised lending rates many times to check inflation. One hopes that down it will also come down in times to come. This has led to a fall in number of people seeking housing loans. Another factor which needs urgent attention is the need to increase investment in education and health care. Despite crisis faced on account of Covid, the overall allocation on health has not risen substantially.
India also lags behind China in terms of allocation for education. If the growing number of people looking for jobs has to be employed usefully they have to be equipped. As it is there is great demand for Indian nurses, para medical staff in Europe and other countries where population is either on decline or number of employable young people is going down.
Another area in which we need to progress is by employing women in productive jobs. India ranks not only behind Europe and the west in this respect but also behind China. There is urgent need to educate more women and make them productive workers. In case we are able to overcome these shortcomings, the coming times will help India to become a leading economic power in the world.
In this context, it has to be noticed that India is showing that in a democratic set up population can be controlled through better education. The southern States in India have reached a stable goal of population without adopting any harsh measures. At present troubled states are in Hindi belt like U.P., Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. In case they follow southern states, India will be able to achieve goal of population control.
The coming five years are crucial in India marching towards becoming a five trillion major economy. With a large pool of young population we can do it. The large population of India can become a boon in coming times instead of being a curse. Solutions to our problems are known to us and within our reach to implement them.
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