Lt. Gen Dushyant Singh
Emerging Global Scenario
COVID-19 has spread concern, anxiety and uncertainty not only in geopolitics but also in global economy. It must be admitted that we are navigating through unchartered territory? However, based on the way nations are conducting themselves, especially with reference to China, there are likely to be major changes in the world order. It has been our experience that after any global crisis world has transformed rapidly. Post WW1 we saw the formation of League of Nations to regulate the world order. WW2 led to the dissolution of League and formation of United Nations (UN). Given the scale of the pandemic and the fact that the most powerful nation (USA) of the world has been severely affected with the blame for the pandemic being apportioned on China for having mishandled the crisis in the initial stages, the world order and WHO have come under severe stress. US has announced its withdrawal of funding the WHO, leaving Melinda gates foundation to be now the largest contributor. Also only four member countries find place in the top 10 contributors in WHO. Further, it’s very much on the cards that China’s recent military and economic activities in various parts of the world may force countries to undertake a major overhaul of international rules, be it laws of the seas, world trade, environment protection, or peace keeping. We are likely to see re-alignments both anti and pro-China. Inward focus by countries of the world especially on economic issues will be on the rise. UN org may become more and more irrelevant as in the case of WHO. Regional and international forums may undergo changes, for example the move by USA to expand G7 to G10 with India forming part of it to counter balance China. Such changes may just be harbinger to greater modifications in the world order. Further, given the uncertain nature of global arrangements in the future, terrorist organisations may grab this opportunity to intensify their activities to seek solutions to their stated goals. More importantly left wing extremism may also increase manifold due to societal imbalance caused by severe economic crisis especially job loss. ILO (International Labour Organisation) predicts around 1.6 billion job loss due to COVID19 in the world which is around half of the global informal work force. As per Mr. Kozul-Wright, of UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), the global economy is likely to slow down drastically losing upto USD One trillion.
Impact on India
India is not going to remain insulated from above changes. India too is reeling under severe economic crisis. Its first quarter growth touching an all-time low of 3.1%. What is making matters worse is a multitude of crisis striking India. We are dealing with a belligerent China which first tried to buy shares of HDFC bank and gain indirect control forcing India to revise its FDI rules. Subsequently it has indulged in series of border face offs with the aim of projecting to the world that India is an insecure country besides seeking tactical military gains by altering the status quo especially in the Galwan Sector. It has also attempted to instigate India through Nepal by raising the Lipulekh controversy. Pakistan continues to accuse most likely on the behest of China that India is going to undertake a false flag operations with aggressive intentions in PoK. Interestingly, it has also started alleging that India is fuelling Baluchistan Independence Movement, aiding and abetting terrorist activities there. Matters have been made worse by natural calamities such as the Amphan and Nisarga Cyclones and growing COVID19 threat with daily new cases touching almost 10000 mark. As if this was not enough left parties and anti CAA / NPR groups are bent upon mass street demonstrations on the lines of the US mass demonstrations “Black Lives Matter” which turned into arson and looting. Should this happen in India it will have serious consequences for India in terms of more spike in COVID-19 cases and perception of insecurity and economic instability in the country.
Indian Approach
So are we facing a dooms day scenario? May not be so. If we play our cards right, we may emerge from the current crisis stronger with even greater say in the comity of nations. Most of the blue print has already been announced by our Prime Minister. His call to become self-reliant nation is one such initiative. But a word of caution that the call by the PM to go “vocal on local” is double edged and needs to be managed carefully, lest we get isolated in a highly connected world. For example levy of foreign digital services taxes on US firms such as Amazon and Netflix by India and the consequent investigation ordered by Trump administration must be handled with care. Similarly, India needs to push for alliances such as QUAD to secure its maritime interests in the Indian Ocean Region to balance China’s growing interference into our security interests. China probably wants us to remain engaged along the land borders and prevent us from becoming a strong maritime power so as to ensure its vital interests in the Indo – Pacific. From this perspective the recent Video Summit between Australia and India conducted on 04 June 20 may just be the forerunner to new alignments that may unfold in the future. The Mutual Logistics Support Arrangement inked between India and Australia on the 4th of Jun 2020 has further strengthened similar arrangements with US, France, Singapore and South Korea. Addition of Japan in this initiative will truly secure the Indian interest. As regards the ongoing crisis with China along our northern borders, it is being mutually resolved through dialogue at diplomatic and military commanders levels based on various agreements on border managements including the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement of 2013 The just concluded Joint Secretary level parleys through video conferencing and Lt Gen level military talks is expected to achieve a breakthrough. Lessosn from the over two months Doklam stand off on the principle of no blinking no brinkmanship principle to resolve the current face off will in all probability lead to both sides reverting to status quo ante.
It goes without saying that we must play our cards well in the various world bodies where we are getting leadership roles such as the WHO. We are also set to enter the UN Security Council as a non – permanent member on 17 Jun. The approach spelt out by our External Affairs Minister, Dr. Jaishankar of following the “5 S” strategies (Samvad – dialogue, Samman – Respect, Sahyog – cooperation, Shanti – peace, Samridhi – prosperity) augurs well and may contribute to building the desired strength to seek a permanent seat in the UNSC.
On the economic front, India has to revive its economy. It has no choice but to emerge as a manufacturing hub by attracting the industrial chains that are likely to relocate from China. In order to avoid public unrest due to mounting job losses, we need to create avenues for employment generation. As per a survey done in Hardoi district of UP with a sample size of 7500 migrant workers, it emerged that 54.3% were unskilled labourers. Therefore, skill development has to be a major effort and should be done in conjunction with the industry as the training done by ITIs and educational institutions is largely bookish and leaves a large gap in the training and industrial needs. Unless our population is enabled to be productive through proper skilling demography will remain a liability rather than a dividend.
Finally, most of our constructive initiatives get nullified due to our inability to project India as a stable, strong and secure country because of which security issues with China, Pakistan and Nepal raise their head frequently. We need to follow the advice of Late Dr. APJ Kalam former President of India, who had said, “Unless India stands up to the world, no one will respect us. In the world fear has no place. Only strength respects strength.” We must develop our military capability preferably indigenously to prevent countries from threatening our national security. Another impediment in our growth is our inability to deal with internal fault lines. Fissiparous tendencies need to be managed through inclusivity without pandering to any groups. We must bring national symbols of motivation centre stage while respecting our diversities. A cohesive, united, strong, stable and secure India will not only spur economic growth but also make India a significant power at regional and global fora.
(The author is former Chief of Staff Eastern Command)
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