M M Munshi
The dramatically growing two Asian economies in the world namely India and China likely to surpass the developed countries of the west are dependent for their energy needs from outside their borders .Global energy needs are likely to increase by 40-50 % by about 2030 and about half of the demand will come from India and China. China’s demand for crude oil doubled between 1995-2005 and is likely to double again by 2020. China is expected to import about 50% of Saudi Arabia’s planned output. More than 85 % of oil and oil products cross the Indian Ocean strait of Malacca . India has almost become the world’s fourth largest energy consumer after the US ,China and Japan. India is dependant for approximately almost one third of its energy needs on oil,65 % of which is imported. 90 % of India’s oil imports of crude come from Persian Gulf. In addition to its own resources India imports coal from far off South Africa, Mozambique, Australia and Indonesia. More ever large quantities of liquefied natural gas from gulf countries via Strait of Homruz Southern Africa in addition to Indonesia and Malaysia.
Since the northern part of the Indian Ocean , stretching from east African coast , Strait of Homruz to South East Asia will become an area of great energy trade China as well as India are seeking to increase their influence . China has built the port of Gadwar in the Makran coast of Pakistan, India reciprocated by building the port of Chan Bahar- in Iran. Indian ocean is dominated by two sizable bays , the Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea near the tips of which are world’s two most unstable countries , namely Pakistan and Myanmar(Burma), state collapse or change in regime in Pakistan would effect its neighbors; the Baluchi and Sindi separatists seeking closer links with Iran and India respectively. Likewise is the unstability in Myanmar where competition between India and China over energy and mineral resources looms large. A more liberal regime in Myanmar than the present military junta could undermine China’s dominant position and increase India’s influence . While the dynamic economic growth of China and India have been noted, equally dynamic military ramifications have not seen India’s and China’s quest for energy resources and global power have shifted gazes of both countries from their land frontiers to sea.
According to James Holmes and Toshiara of US Naval War college ” the fact that they are focusing on their sea power indicates that how much self confident they are on land” The skirmishes on the Indo Tibetan border may be diversionary tactics by the Chinese.Sea Power that is deployment of navies somewhat looks less threatening than occupation of land by armies. Needless to say that there will be tension between the two navies as the gap between their relative strengths and area decreases. To understand the situation one must look at the maritime angle of the region. Even today’s jet and information age 90 % of the global commerce 65% of Oil and oil products move by sea. Indian ocean accounts for more than half of marine traffic in the world. About 70% of oil and oil products pass through Indian Ocean to Middle East to Atlantic or Pacific ocean The ships laden with these products have to pass through world’s oil shipping lanes mainly the Strait of Homruz gulf of Aden and Oman, Strait of Malacca and other choke points. Both countries are trying their utmost to increase their zones of influence from Middle East to South East Asia.
Chinese Navy has already made its appearance at the Burmese island of Coco north of Andamans ,Gwadar on the Baluchistan coast and elsewhere. China is also negotiating for construction of a Panama type of Canal across Thailand to reduce the distance as well as threat to its shipping. As India’s economy continues to grow [the present recession being a passing phase] , so will its trade with Iran and Iraq one that country recovers .Iran like Afghanistan has become a strategic rear base for India against Pakistan and is poised to become an important energy partner
A few years back Iran signed for supply of 7.5 million tons of LNG annually for a period of 25 years since 2009. India is also expanding its economic and military ties with Myanmar because the latter is rich in oil, gas other mineral resources and timber. India has also started enlarging its navy. With its 160 warships Indian Navy is one of the world’s largest and has planned to add three aircraft carriers and numerous nuclear powered submarines ,destroyers and frigates by 2015
Indeed as India is extending its influence from Middle East to South East Asia at sea ,China is desperately trying its best to integrate Taiwan into its own dominion so that it can divert its navy southwards into Indian. Ocean India on the other hand is concerned about its oil imports from Middle East passing close to Makran coast where China is building deep water port at Dwadar which are likely to become Chinese naval bases .China is also planning to built a canal on the pattern of Panama Canal across the isthmus of Kra in Thailand. ZAHO Nanki ,formerly of Chinese Liberation Army has stated that China can no longer accept India’s domination uin Indian Ocean. India on its part is also building port of Karwar on its Western Coast and Chabahar in the Persian Gulf besides maintaining its naval air, and land forces in Andaman – Nicobar islands. Chinese are worried that about 244 Indian Islands of Andaman and Nicobar could be used as a base for blocking the western approaches to Strait of Malacca on which China is very dependant. Needless to add that China has recognized [ grudgingly ]India as a major sea power. The United States besides having a number of problems in Asia also faces the major challenge of growing naval forces of China and India in the Indian Ocean. China like Iran is /may not be an enemy of US but a keen competitor and India is a new ally. Indian Navy which is on the rise in Indian Ocean will serve as an antidote for China’s naval/military expansion. Like the British Navy at the end of 19th century began to reduce its strength to leverage its power to US and Japanese navies. US Navy is also declining its presence by leveraging by the growing sea power of its allies like India and Japan to balance against China. Indians have willingly and without directions from US tried to balance themselves against Chinese since latter’s occupation of Tibet. India China rivalry is likely to take dimensions of a great game.
The present stand off between China and India pertaining to oil exploration within territorial waters of Vietnam is the indication of the begining.
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