Prof A N Sadhu
The season of elections has begun with the announcement of elections, in the five states (viz.) Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh Chhatisgarh, Telegana and Mizoram. These elections will be held in November, 2023 and the results will be known in the first week of December,2023. There will hardly be a gap of three to four months, before the Parliamentary elections ( 2024) will be held. The electorate is already sensitized towards the gaint democratic exercise that will put the new government in office for the next five years. The Indian electorate is maturing satisfactorily and keeping itself aware of the developments taking place, in the country both on political and socio economic front. The politicians may, probably not be conscious of the maturity, that the country’s electorate has attained. The force of swaying the elections on the basis of caste, creed and ideology is tending to be loosening its impact, in the wake of greater awareness among the voters. Post Covid period has witnessed several phenomena, both globally and nationally that have impacted the common man’s life very adversely. The world is witnessing a long recessionary phenomenon which besides lovering the GDP levels is also denying the high populated countries the demographic dividends for lack of employment opportunities. The electorate will therefore look towards the competence of the governments of handling these post Covid situations in a manner as would not cause greater hardships to the people. The exhibitive and make-believe developments may, no longer, enthuse the electorate.
At stake, in the next elections shall be the following considerations.
I. Inflation
II. Unemployment
III. Inequality
IV. Stability
V. The performance as against the promises
Globally, the world countries will be taking keen interest in the Indian elections and would also seek to influence these in whatever way, they perceive the post election scenario of Indian democracy.
Inflation, in the country, is a serious problem. The superfluous explanations of inflation being a global phenomenon and India not being an exception is not convincing either to exonerate the government or to make the people to bear with the hardships silently. The Demonetization as also the harsh regimes of taxes have hit hard the common man. The sections of population, living on petty business activities through the medium of cash economy, have been completely derailed, resulting into the swelling number of people on the brink of poverty. Some welfare activities of the government, in terms of incentives, subsidies and free bies may not be ignored but these have not been effectively oriented towards creation of a sustainable economic support. These may need to be strengthened to create income generating avenues, among these sections of people. The middle class is also in need of a reprieve through tax rationalization. That, imflation is effecting all sections of population, will make an impact on the response of the voter and his expectation from an alternative choice.
Unemployment is an equally agitating problem. The youth of the country is restive. There is some evidence that the manufacturing sector, software sector as also the corporate sector is expecting a growth phenomena which may ease the situation in near future but the people will note that nothing substantial has happened uptil now, when the Government repeatedly talked of realizing the demographic dividend from the bulging young human stock in the country. It also comes to the public notice that even the existing openings are ceased restricting the employment opportunities further. Somewhere something is wrong with the manpower planning. Everything seems not to be right on the economic front. Restrictive employment market, forces the meritorious and talented young men and women to leave the country resulting into the impoverishment of the country, both economically and intellectually.
In-equality is on the increase, one of the fundamental objectives of our economic planning is reduction of income inequality but quite the reverse is being witnessed. A pluralistic society cannot live with islands of affluence on the one hand and the ocean of deprivation on the other. It is painful to watch, millions of people sleeping on the footpaths and a chosen few living in multistory buildings with clubs and swimming pools, built-in. Capitalism is fine but not at the cost of social justice and humanity. Absolute equality, in a pluralistic society is not possible but deepening and widening of in-equality is not justifiable, either. Economic and social inequalities result into the young stock of the country taking to anti- national activities and fall into the criminal world which damages the nation, both, from within and from outsides as well.
Voters shall also be ceased of the necessity to promote stability in the country. It is a noble idea and the party in power, has worked hard to press upon the need of maintaining stability of government so that it has more time to address to the concerns of the nation. The electorate will assess the benefits accrued to them and the desirability of giving more space to the existing regime to augment those benefits. The political scenario, in the country, as of today, is very complex and confusing as well. It will be a hard exercise for the voters to use their wisdom in making a rational choice. The common man’s thinking is always effected by the administration’s performance as against the promises made to them. People of different shades of opinion, find it difficult to draw a clear inference, on this score. It is said, what the mind does not understand, eyes don’t see.
The world will watch very keenly the Indian parliamentary elections 2024. In the recent past, India has carved out a niche for itself at the global level through its participation in different global forums and its organization of G-20 meeting during the last year. The admirers are talking of India emerging as a Vishwa Guru on the one hand and achieving a five trillion economy, on the other. The India’s assertion of one earth, one family and one future as an alternate model of peace and development on the global scale, is in tune with the basic tenet of Indian philosophy of “Vasudev Kutumbkam” and it might rightly be claimed as an acceptable way out, to the present turbulence in many parts of the world. Emergence of India along these expectations will certainly engage the world countries’ attention on the nations coming elections. The neighboring country China claiming to be a mighty country at par with USA, will be concerned with the emerging status of India, both regionally and globally as it will not like to compromise its regional and global placement. Amerrica and western world will remain watchful about future political developments in India and weigh their future international ranking accordingly. Although, these countries will not like to annoy India because of their economic gains from the large middle class market of India but they will also not wish that Bharat has an upperhand in impacting the international issues.
All these countries will put in their efforts to see that India does not wrest the global initiatives and relegate them to a secondary stage. There may be the global concerns which are likely to make these countries influence the coming elections, in whatever way they find it possible. However, the electorate will look at these elections from local perspectives which will have the ultimate bearing on the results. As of now, it is difficult to paint a clear picture, despite the cosmetics.
(The writer is former Dean, Academic Affairs Jammu University Jammu)
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