By Harihar Swarup
Troubles of Congress-led UPA-II Government seem to be never ending. It began with the 2G scam, followed by controversy over Lokpal, FDI in multi-brand retail, and on the question of setting up National Counter Terrorism Centre. The Congress suffered a major setback when it was trounced in assembly elections in five states including the key state of Uttar Pradesh. Unexpected defeat in Punjab was a big jolt to the ruling dispensation.
Another major challenge is in the offing in forthcoming Presidential election slated for July. This will be followed by election of the Vice-President who is also Chairman of the Rajya Sabha. The Congress and allies cannot get its candidate elected to the President’s post on their own. A broad consensus will have to be evolved on a successor to Pratibha Patil. Congress has, however, a better chance of winning 2012 Presidential candidate if it fields a candidate “more acceptable” and cutting across party lines. To achieve this objective, regional parties like Samajwadi Party, AIADMK and BSP will have to be consulted and taken into full confidence. An analysis conducted by the Centre for Media Studies says no national party can get its nominee elected in July elections without the support of the regional parties which account for a quarter of nearly 11 lakh electorate. UPA has not got the numbers on its own to get its candidate elected, but it has a better chance to mobilize support by having a more acceptable and much beyond party line candidates. The UPA has little over 40 per cent of total votes against 57 per cent it had in 2007. Presidential poll, the analysis says, adding that the Congress has 31 per cent of the total votes against 24 per cent of the BJP.
The electorate for the coming Presidential polls is expected to be 10,98,882. Regional parties-SP, AIADMK and the TDP and the Left –will have to be taken on board in getting the required numbers in the Presidential election. “In fact, no candidate can become the next President of India without the support of as many of its group of regional parties. More specifically, support of any two of three regional parties-SP, Left and BSP-are essential for winning”, says the analysis.
In this context, it says, leaders like Pranab Mukherjee and Dr. Karan Singh can mobilize support cutting across party lines. As the UPA’s candidate, Pratibha Patil had won 57 per cent of the votes in 2007. The Congress, which has 206 members in the Lok Sabha and 71 in the Rajya Sabha, has only 31 per cent of the votes. The main opposition BJP-led NDA has 51 seats in the 238- member Rajya Sabha and 114 in the 543-member Lok Sabha, making up 24 per cent of the votes. However, 58 current members of the Rajya Sabha have retired and with fresh election this arithmetic has changed. The BJP-led NDA is in power in nine states, including Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, while the Congress and its allies are in power in 14 states, including Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Therefore, the regional parties will play a decisive role in the presidential election.
“Regional parties, irrespective of whether they group themselves as a front or not, stands in the way of UPA getting the required numbers in this election”, says the Centre for Media Studies. This account for about a quarter of UPA votes, including the Left parties, BSP, SP, Biju Lok Dal, AIADMK and Telugu Desam Party. Political parties have interpreted the recent coming together of regional parties on one platform and opposing the formation of the proposed NCTC, as significant ahead of the Presidential election. A BLD leader said Patnaik was testing the waters ahead of the Presidential poll.
Nitish Kumar and Jayalalithaa, besides other opposition Chief Ministers, will have a powerful role in deciding the Presidential candidate. Support of a minimum of two of the regional Chief Ministers is essential for winning. Mayawati, though down but not out, could still make a difference and may even decide the candidates for Presidential and Vice-Presidential elections.
If the efforts of a consensus on a Presidential candidate fails, there will be election with battle lines clearly drawn as seen ten years back when APJ Abdul Kalam, put up by the NDA and, supported by the Congress, won by defeating Capt. Lakshmi Sehgal , set up by the Left parties and the Janata Dal.
It is too early to hazard a guess as to who could be a consensus Presidential candidate. There has been faint whispering that Kalam could again be sponsored for the highest office of the land. His last term went on well an he is non-political too. Name of Gopal Krishna Gandhi, a grand son of Mahatma Gandhi and former West Bengal Governor was also heard. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s name is very much there.
Closely will follow the Vice-Presidential election. Pattern of the Presidential election will be repeated in this poll. Still more difficult at this stage is to guess who would be next Vice-President. Heard in some quarters that Wajahat Habibullah, former Central Information Commissioner, may emerge as a dark horse. (IPA)
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