M K Dhar
There is a surge of optimism in New Delhi and Moscow about re-invigorating Indo-Russian strategic partnership, which remains robust despite many setbacks, a few misperceptions and occasional indifference. The ensuing Summit of Russian President Vlamidir Putin and prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi ought to give the needed impetus to bilateral relationship in many fields, including defence, nuclear energy, transfer of technology and harmonise thinking on regional and international issues, particularly Afghanistan, which have implications for their security. The intensity of engagement between two old friends and a succession of meetings, including the two inter-governmental commissions on Military-technical cooperation and Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technical Co-operation which brought Russian Deputy Premier Dmitry Rogozin and Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov to New Delhi, have build the tempo of future progress, with promises to rectify delays in the delivery of certain equipment, including aircraft carrier Vikramaditya.
Even though India was forced to diversify the sources of its defence procurement in order to get the latest equipment form the US and Israel to meet the immediate requirements of strengthening defences against Pakistan and china, Russia still remains the largest supplier, with over 60 per share of the arms in use by our defence forces. New orders worth billions of dollars are also in the pipeline for items such as, more SU-30 MKI advanced fighter jets, T-90 tanks, armoured helicopters and co-production of the fifth generation fighter. Though the difference between the prices of equipment supplied by Russia and western countries is narrowing, tempting Indian defence forces to look to alternative sources of supply, Moscow’s prices still remain competitive, with added advantage of transfer of technology and co-production.
Though things changed after the disintegration of the erstwhile Soviet Union, with the emergence of autonomous, as well as, private entities in the defence business, with the state having little control over fixing concessional prices, it goes to the credit of President Putin that he realized the strategic importance of Russia’s relationship with India. He devised policies that went to revive the once flourishing strategic partnership, steer it in a positive direction and upgrade it to “special, privileged, strategic” partnership — a new concept introduced in the international diplomatic lexicon. Still being India’s biggest defence partner, he realized that the Russian and Indian poles can reinforce each other, providing the building clocks of partnership in a developing world.
Any talk of relations cooling off is summarily dismissed, with both sides pointing out that in the conduct of foreign policy, perceptions can sometimes differ on issues of international and regional peace and security, but that does not distance the two from each other. Even though the new generation of leaders in Russia may lack the earlier motivation of embracing India more tightly, Mr. Putin, with a clear vision of global peace and value of economic cooperation, relieses the importance for Russia of expanding the ambit of relations with India for both economic and political benefits. He has scrupulously avoided airing any disagreements in public in their evaluation of crisis situations in West Asia and elsewhere and how the two react to them.
Doubts and apprehensions about Russia cosying upto to Pakistan, as evidenced by several high-level engagement with that country, are also being set at rest, with Moscow emphasing that it wanted to involve Pakistan in resolving the situation in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US and NATO forces in 2014, because Islamabad’s indirect intervention has prevented stabilizing the situation in the war-devastated country. Though some bilateral meetings with India were re-scheduled for the reason that Pakistan army Chief Gen Kayani was visiting Moscow, Mr. Putin cancelled his visit to Islamabad in deference to Indian’s sensibilities. Though Russia has not sold any arms to Pakistan as yet, kayani had gone with a long list of equipment, including attack helicopters, night vision devices and electronic equipment, but returned empty handed.
Mr. Dmitry Rogozin minced no words when he said that Russia had never created trouble for India in the region, as other countries had done. If someone says otherwise, “spit in his face”. He asserted that Moscow did not do any military business with India’s “enemies” and did not transfer any arms to them. Mr. Serdyukov gave a new schedule for transfer of the aircraft carrier Vikramaditya, which developed engine problems and promised to stick to it. Mr. Rogozin was, however, highly critical of the rabid anti-Russian campaign in a section of the Indian media launched by “our competitors”. This indicated that a strong opponent stood behind it seeking to impose on India its own arms supplies, thus depriving it of the right to choose and to have self-reliant scientific and technological progress. Such volume of know-how was not given to India by any country which was vividly demonstrated by the transfer of nuclear submarine Chakra to the Indian Navy. Numerous other projects were also in place pertaining to aeronautical engineering, armoured infantry vehicles, jet engines, missiles, tanks, warships and other sophisticated military equipment. The time has arrived for joint production, adaptation of new technologies and introduction of such items in the markets of third countries.
Mr. Putin and Dr. Singh will discuss a host of bilateral issues and exchange their perspectives of certain international developments and how to formulate a joint strategy to counter negative influences. Though the two countries voted differently on the UNSC resolution on Syria in keeping with their interest, it has not affected their relations. Moreover since Russia and China vetoed the resolution, the situation in Syria has worsened, instead of improving and the people’s suffering has increased. New Delhi does not necessarily agree with the Russian and Chinese moves to involve Pakistan in an Afghan settlement, in the hope that Taliban could be restrained from entering Afghanistan and destabilising the Government in Kabul post 2014. That would ensure that US forces did not stay behind in Afghanistan in reduced numbers to ensure its security.
But whether Russia can trust any word given by Gen Kayani is the main question, because the US discovered, rather late, that Pakistan had been cheating all along by collecting billion of dollars to fight the terrorists and fundamentalists, while, actually, patronising them and sending them across to kill American and NATO soldiers. Having burnt its finger badly once, Russia ought to be particularly cautious about trusting Pakistan and striking a deal with it. Pakistan wants to undermine India’s influence in Afghanistan and its future participation in its development. Russia therefore, ought to tread carefully, even though it may be in competition with China in gaining influence in Afghanistan without being deterred. (IFS)
Follow our WhatsApp channel