Sir,
Contrary to propaganda by the BJP, the party has not gained in recent bye-elections; neither it is an endorsement of demonetisation. Bye-elections constitute a very limited test of the popular mood post demonization. In any case, the BJP is not a major player in West Bengal, Tripura, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and results in these parts of the country cannot be construed to be a vote against the Prime Minister.
On the other hand, the BJP has failed to dislodge the incumbent parties from any of the state. The solace for the BJP is that it has retained the Lakhimpur seat (in Assam), though with a steep fall in margin. Similarly, it has won the Shahdol (Madhya Pradesh) seat, but again, with a markedly reduced margin. The party can take comfort from the fact that it has retained the two Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh. The Opposition may be entitled to feel that it has made inroads into the ruling party’s strongholds.
Ruling parties enjoy an inherent advantage in bye-elections. Voters see little point in antagonizing their rulers when there is no immediate prospect of a change in government. West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry had gone to polls in April-May, this year and the recent bye elections were not expected to deviate from the general election trend.
It is, obviously, too early to suggest that the BJP has scored spectacularly well with the voters with the “surgical strike” on black money. The real referendum will come in a few months time in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, by which time the RBI-induced dislocation would have sorted itself out-one way or the other. By that time also the Prime Minister would have finessed his “pro-poor, pro-rich” argument, and, it should be an interesting contest between a pan-Indian political posturing and regional articulation of sub-nationalist aspirations.
Yours etc…..
Harihar Swarup
New Delhi
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