Brig Anil Gupta (retd)
Immediately after the announcement of the results of MCD polls, the leadership of Aam Admi Party was ecstatic and overjoyed. In their exuberance, they made many tall claims including the emergence of a national alternative to the ruling party seeking its third consecutive term in the general elections to be held in 2024. Many of them coined the slogan and used it often on electronic and social media, “Aaj Dilli Sheena Kal Gujarat Sheene ge” (We have snatched Delhi today and will snatch Gujarat tomorrow). Even the second-rung leaders of the party in a press briefing held at Jammu proclaimed the victory of AAP in the Assembly polls whenever held in J&K. But this joy was short-lived. The declaration of the results of the Gujarat and Himachal Assembly polls announced the next day exposed the hollowness of the party. But true to their style of politics which revolves around the creation of false narratives and making tall claims, the AAP leadership rather than accepting the verdict of the people was trying to eulogise the party claiming that it has now become a national party. The fact is their temporary moment of joy was a damp squib. Their chest-thumping was a display of arrogance and conceit.
The assembly results declared on the 8th instant burst the AAP’s over-inflated balloon with the party drawing a total blank in the Himachal election and winning meagre five seats in Gujarat in a house of 182 just like a needle in the haystack. The vote share in Himachal was just 1.10 percent, in several constituencies polling less than even the NOTA (None of The Above). In Gujarat it managed 12.91 percent of the vote share against BJP’s 52.52%. Yet its supremo went overboard and thanked the Gujaratis for making AAP a national party and sheepishly pronounced, “Gujarat is considered a BJP bastion and we have succeeded in breaching this fort.” BJP in fact had broken all previous records and equalling the record of the Left Front government in West Bengal for being the longest serving ruling party.
Despite losing badly in the two assembly elections it contested, AAP leadership found solace in inconsequential the ‘national party’ status it got. For them “it is a ray of hope”, as reported by the Tribune, though becoming a national party is no guarantee of becoming the ruling party at the Centre. Known for making false statements, the party leadership flooded the media claiming that AAP took the shortest time to become a national party. However, the FactCheck reveals that at least five parties, formed after independence, attained national party status in lesser period. While it took 10 years for the AAP to get the national party status Sharad Pawar’s NCP took less than one year, Bharatiya Jan Sangh also took just one year and the BJP did it in four years. CPM took seven and J&K’s regional party NPP took six years for the same. In order to remain relevant and hog media limelight the AAP is creating the euphoria to hide its failures from the public.
The readers would find the AAP’s journey to become a national party, a story of failures. But undeterred, the party continued to woo the gullible voters through promises of freebies and good governance. Other than Delhi and Punjab, AAP’s foray into state elections has been a dismal failure. It contested 349 out of 403 seats in UP and lost all, forfeiting deposit in 100 seats. In Uttarakhand, AAP contested in 70 seats and lost deposit in 68. It also contested in 39 seats in Goa and lost deposit in 35 seats. It however managed to win two seats in Goa, making it the third state where AAP got recognition as a state party. In Himachal out of the 67 seats it contested, it lost deposit in all the seats. In Gujarat AAP contested in 181 seats, forfeiting deposit in 126 seats. It won five seats in Gujarat, thus Gujarat becoming the mandatory fourth state where it became a state party needed for recognition as a national party.
AAP had campaigned fiercely in Gujarat making many unsubstantiated charges against the ruling party. Arvind Kejriwal visited the state almost every week post April claiming to be the only party that would end the 27- year rule of BJP. It tried to politicise and exploit the tragic Morbi incident. Arvind Kejriwal went to the extent of giving in writing that AAP will form the next Government in Gujarat. What prompted Kejriwal to make such promises was the result of local municipal elections in Surat where AAP managed to win 27 seats. In doing so, AAP failed to realise that success in local elections is no guarantee of success at the state/national level.
Unable to match his utterances with performance, there was no other way left for the AAP leadership but to create a euphoria and draw dividend even from its defeat. AAP leadership particularly its supremo, who had earlier dared PM Modi by contesting the parliamentary election against him and where he had to eat a humble pie, is unable to come to terms with the fact that it is nowhere near challenging Narendra Modi leave alone replacing him in 2024.
The humiliation suffered by AAP in Gujarat and Himachal, where many of its prominent faces including state party chief and chief ministerial candidates failed to make the cut, has made one thing very clear that majority Indians are against freebies and AAP’s credibility is such that there are very few takers for the lofty poll promises made by its leadership.
AAP also needs to realise that it can not nurture the idea of a ruling party at the centre till it has grassroot level cadre across the length and breadth of the country. It can not depend solely on its floating cadre for consistent electoral victories in different states. Thus, the real reason behind AAP’s euphoria is to hide the humiliation it has been subjected to by the people of Gujarat and Himachal. The grant of national party status has come to its rescue like a silver lining in the dark cloud.
(The author is a Jammu based veteran, political analyst, security and strategic analyst and a TV panellist.)
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