Dr. Gyan Pathak
The unprecedented rise in temperature touching 40 degree Celsius, in parts of India in February, which is technically a winter month, has threatened not only the food security of the country but also various sectors of the economy – ranging from availability of potable water to electricity impacting almost all aspects of life, particularly the health services.
It’s a matter of serious concern for the country since it has already been predicted that there is a possibility of an intensely hot summer and extended heatwaves this year. Only a year before in 2022, India had recorded its warmest March on record, with an average maximum temperature of 33.1 degree Celsius or 1.86 degree Celsius above the long-term average. Heatwaves generally occur in April but are less common, but May is usually the month of excessively high temperatures.
Hence, Centre’s mere setting up of a committee to monitor the situation and issuing advisories to farmers are only an adhoc act while the country needs a comprehensive policy and strategy to deal with the crisis to prevent a catastrophe that is likely to be triggered by heating up of the land and the atmosphere.
There is a general concern of unprecedented damage to the kharif crops standing in the field – particularly wheat and mustard. The government has issued advisories to the farmers on adopting micro irrigation to minimize the damage and avoid the repeat of the damage similar to last year when output was declined due to early onset of heatwave in March which led to ban of wheat export in May. It triggered rise in food prices putting the vulnerable poor in great difficulty and the government is still struggling to reign in the food inflation.
IMD has said that the higher day-time temperatures might have an adverse impact on wheat that is approaching the productive growth period, which is sensitive to temperature. High temperatures during the flowering and maturing period lead to loss in yield. There could be a similar impact on other standing crops and horticulture. Their advisory said, “Add much material in the space between two rows of vegetable crops to conserve soil moisture and maintain soil temperature.” However, government must accept that the poor farmers don’t have even means to implement the advisories issued by the government.
It has been estimated that the standing wheat crop which was sown in December-January will be impacted to an extent of 5-10 per cent, and mustard between 4-6 per cent, if the present heat condition worsens.
India actually needs to plan something more than the advisories issued and what is already in place, such as heat related health action plans, or the national framework of heat action plan through the National Disaster Management Authority which is supposed to coordinate the network of state disaster response agencies and city leaders to prepare for soaring temperature and ensure that everyone is aware of heatwave Do’s and Don’ts. It is an important aspect in itself but can provide only too small a relief than the crisis people suffer.
India is one of the most densely populated countries, and hence severe heatwave conditions would impact hundreds of millions of people, livestock, and entire ecology. Moreover, heatwaves have cascading impact not only on human health but also on ecosystems, agriculture, water, energy supplies and all sectors of the economy.
Heatwave conditions in India is not a new phenomenon, but the situation have been deteriorating with the climate change. WMO has always been emphasizing on multi-hazard planning so that the services may reach the most vulnerable, but India’s efforts are nowhere compared to the challenge the country has been facing. WMO had even issued an alerts last year in April-May about extreme heatwave conditions in the country. Only days after the warning land surface temperatures over pockets of northwest India was recorded by satellites reached 55 degree Celsius or even crossed 60 degrees is some places in the fist week of May. However, India is yet to have any comprehensive strategy.
The heatwave conditions in February in several northern areas of the country proves the earlier observations of the WMO that heatwaves are more frequent and more intense and starting earlier than in the past. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its Sixth Assessment Report, said that heatwaves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent in South Asia this century.
The Union Ministry of Earth Sciences had issued a document last year which says that the frequency of warm extremes over India has increased during 1951-2015, with accelerated warning trends during the recent 30 years period 1986-2015. Significant warming is observed for the warmest day, warmest night and coldest night since 1986. The pre-monsoon heatwave frequency, duration, intensity and areal coverage over India are projected to substantially increase during the twenty-first century.
A climate update by WMO and UK Met Office had warned last year that the world overall temperature is moving in a dangerous direction and it is almost certain that 2022-2026 will see a warmest year on record though there is close to fifty-fifty chance (48 per cent) of breaching 1.5°C, though there is only a small chance (10 per cent) of the five-year mean exceeding this threshold. It brought the greatest concern for India and Pakistan.
The 2022 Global Food Policy Report by US based International Food Policy Research Institute had even warned that “South Asia is a climate change hotspot, with many climate-induced risks compounded by significant existing vulnerabilities. It said that the average temperature in India was expected to climb by 2.4 to 4.4 degree Celsius by the year 2100, and summer heats were expected to triple or quadruple by that time.
Average land productivity is falling as the temperature rises, the IFPRI has said. The report had emphasized that all South Asian nations were lagging in taking key crucial initiatives that would directly contribute to both climate change adaptation and mitigation in the region. The future outlook for the region is bleak, the report had said. (IPA)
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