Harsha Kakar
Rajnath Singh attended the SAARC home minister’s conclave in Pakistan last week and gave a strong statement on Pakistan’s role on terror. His visit was over shadowed by comments and protests by Syed Salauddin, Hafiz Saeed and their associates, which continued even as the home minister attended the summit. SAARC was established in 1985, with the novel idea of creating a regional organization, which would be mutually beneficial to all nations of the region, however has only been dominated by instability, rivalry, doubts and enmity.
Nepal is presently witnessing a political crisis with another change in government. Oli, who after battling for survival, finally resigned and paved the way for Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also known as Prachanda, who was sworn in as the 39th Prime Minister of the country, the eighth in as many years. The new government has immediate hurdles in its path, primary being balancing of relations between India and China and resolving the Madhesi crises, while still recreating the state, post the devastating earthquake. Under Oli, India-Nepal relations were at an ebb, as even on his resignation, he placed the blame on India. It is hopeful that there would be an improvement in relations in the future. A politically unstable Nepal, will not be able to effectivelycontribute to SAARC.
Bangladesh is moving into the throes of militancy. The al Qaeda Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) has established its foothold in the nation. AQIS ultimately desires to attack the governments in India, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan. The attack on the Holey Artisan Bakery in early July, shook the nation, which was moving slowly on action against those involved ina series of murderous assaults on Hindus, bloggers and LGBT members. A pre-emptive strike by security forces prevented subsequent attacks from being launched.The country blames Pakistan for supporting and sponsoring anti-national activities on its soil.Bangladesh- Pakistan relations are also stretched due to Pakistan’s criticism of death sentences to 71 war criminals.
Maldives stabilizing postan internal crisis, remains distrustful of India’s intentions. Afghanistan is becoming increasingly unstable. The Taliban presently control ten districts and are battling security forces in forty more, while the IS continues to increase its presence in remote districts. The increase in suicide attacks by both groups enhances the volatility of the situation. The US continues to remain, however with no reduction in Pakistan’s support to the Taliban or the Haqqani network, chances of peace remain low. Border clashes have occurred between Pakistan and Afghanistan forces. Relations between the two are at their lowest ebb. India’s growing proximity and support to Afghanistan is detested by Pakistan.
Pakistan, a nuclear state, is a nation in distress. Terrorism shows no sign of abating, in spite of powerful military assaults backed by airpower and artillery. Intolerance against minor sects and other religions continue to rise. Diplomatically they remain isolated, with only Chinese support. Relations with all their neighbours, except China are floundering. Economically they are only banking on the CPEC, as a life line. US military and economic aid has come to a standstill. State sponsorship of terrorism continues as its foremost national security policy. Its enmity with India and Afghanistan is out in the open, while it remains cold to Bangladesh.
India, stable economically, is presently trying to control the rising dissent in Kashmir. The involvement of Pakistan in theproxy war and attacks by terrorists have worsened relations between the two. There are no signs of talks to resolve any pending issues. The bonhomie between leaders of the two nations, now appears to be a thing of the past.Simultaneously, there is a silentanti-India psychosis which exists within SAARC. Its dominant status, economically and militarily,and ability to intervene where its interests are threatened, has nations worrying. India on the other hand, employs diplomatic and economic power to assuage their fears. India has been able to achieve better relations with each country in direct contact than through the SAARC forum.
The major issues facingSAARC, which recede into the background includebattling poverty, improving economic status of countries, enhancing trade and commerce, working together on development and a common approach to terrorism. Ideally, if SAARC was effective, it would have become the largest common market in the world, dwarfing the EU and improving the quality of life of its people. In reality, SAARC has lost its strategic importance.Even after a period of thirty years, since it was established, it has remained as ineffective. Every other regional grouping has moved ahead leaps and bounds, within a lesser time frame. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) established in 2001 is an example.
The major drawbacks which face SAARC,are enshrined in its charter, which states that no bilateral or conflictual issues would be discussed and like some other world bodies, all decisions should be consensus in nature. Inherent lack of trust, internal instabilities and intra- regional conflict have blockedprogress. The leaders meet during summits, deliver speeches and move on. No formal progress is visible.
The interior minister of Pakistan stated during his inaugural address, that SAARC nations should work jointly to curb drugs, human trafficking, money laundering and ensure peace. Drugs emanating from Afghanistan’s Taliban controlled areas move through Pakistan, fake currency and money laundering to support militancy flows from Pakistan to India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Nepal, while peace eludes the region because of Pakistan’s policies of state sponsored terrorism. The strong comments made by Rajnath Singh, in his address, would play to the gallery, but have no visible effect on either SAARC or Pakistan. Similar comments would also have flowed from Afghanistan, which has been equally affected by Pak sponsored terrorism, but to no avail. The home ministers have madetheir respective speeches and moved on to deal with more pressing internal issues. SAARC recedes into the background till the next summit.
Finally, the only benefit that SAARC provides, is that it continues to remain a forum, where leaders meet, discuss bilateral issues and build mutual trust.Presently, it is an organization, which has failed the people of the subcontinent and unless the leaders take corrective action, it would follow the Non- Aligned, into obscurity.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army )
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