Prof.M.K.Bhat
The proof of pudding lies in eating it, in the same way the success of any summit by a group of nations shall get reflected by the changes at the ground level. The eight countries of SAARC namely Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan, Sri Lanka bear a common culture, ethnicity and legacy , constitute 3% of the world area, house 21% of the global population, can talk of SAARC success only when there is cooperation in trade and other relations at ground level.
SAARC has failed to show its presence as a viable avenue for the prosperity of the people of South Asia. The vision of free trade by 2010 or being economic union by 2020 has fallen apart. It has got a university and warm handshakes to its credit but little to show in terms of financial integration, exports within the region, free mobility of labor and capital or sharing of science and technology . Its position at present is just of a talk shop with little practical and more of negativity. Maximum of its deliberations have got eclipsed by the bilateral conflicts between India and Pakistan. The negative approach of Pakistan gets evident from the fact of its failure to reciprocate India’s most favoured nations treatment. In the 18th summit at Kathmandu, it failed to sign the much needed agreements on rail and road connectivity, Pakistan got three months time for the these two agreements. It only signed the agreement on power. The Cross border terrorism, illegal migration, big brotherly attitude further vitiated the environment of these member countries. Prime Minister , Narender Modi rightly held that these countries must learn to have the habit of cooperation.
It may be pointed out that India has the required potential to change it from a talk shop to a vibrant body as it constitutes 70% of the SAARC area and population .Seven countries have common border with India though not with each other. Its lead role may work to its own interests and that of member countries in two ways; firstly India can cultivate this geographical proxinimity for its trade. The road connectivity in south Asia may allow India an access to markets of Iran,Turkministan and other central asian countries. India will be in a position to promote its goods via Pakistan and in this way it can cultivate the benefit of low transport cost. Currently, trade between India and Iran is routed via sea. Thus higher transport cost acts as a deterrent to India’s sale of goods in central asia .It also harms tradewithin the member countries, at times it is leading to more illegal trade between them. The big size of India may work to the benefit of all member countries . They may get their exposure to a big market.
Secondly , India’s role also becomes important due to the growing Chinese influence in the area. China has invested billions of dollars in the infrastructure area of this region. Its relations with Pakistan and investment in ports in SriLanka and Maldives are major causes of concern. Even the venue of 18th SAARC Summit was built by Chinese. China can easily activate its regional influence to outwit India. SriLanka and Maldives even proposed China’s membership in SAARC. Chinese expansion in the South Asian region will be at the cost of India and many other member countries.
SAARC countries trade stands at 5.2% of their total foreign trade and almost all of that is India’s exports to its neighbors, the exports from these countries to India is quite low. The comparative figure for ASEAN is 26.5%. The trade between SAARC countries is low because of the historical legacy. Britishers not only divided the country but also developed suspicion among people. The environment was made further murky by outside forces who wanted the region to be in perpetual conflict for their own interests. The free flow of goods and services across the borders is also restricted by the unequal level of economic growth of the member countries, certain feel a free flow may make the big country to reap more at the cost of a weak country, having low economic advantage to its credit.
It is an irony that the trade between these countries has become a victim of lack of trust, suspicion and even proxy war. Modi rightly raised the issue of 26 /11 in the Kathmandu summit.Terrorism is a big threat to all these nations and it is eating their blood. It need not be taken in a partial manner but the fact is that it is getting bigger dimensions every day in almost all the member countries.
At the time of summit in Kathmandu firing on Indo pakistan border was taking place is a hardcore fact. It is no doubt that SAARC talks of multilateralism not bilateralism but the impact of such things can hardly be ruled out .The same can be said about India – Bangladesh or SriLanka- India, or Afganistan- Pakistan etc, borders . The time has come when people expect from leaders to deliver positivity at the ground level. The resources need to be applied in a positive manner for creating more jobs and livelihood, medical facilities rather than to waste them in combating border disputes.
South Asia is a land of sharp disparities,its cities are Shinning and some of them compete the best in world but the countryside is far behind in the race of economic growth .The coexistence of these two extremes in the same country has lead to certain peculiar problems like congested cites, continuous migration of people from rural ares to cities exhausting their capacities, concentration of wealth and job prospects in certain areas, low scientific temper and mass poverty in general.
In the recently concluded Kathmandu summit, India has taken a right step forward by providing 3-5 year business visa to SAARC countries, SAARC Sattelite will be launched . It has realized that a scope for trade in tourism, medical science, space science etc. In order to galvanise these steps towards betterment of people, it may have to shun its big brother attitude the soverignity of the neighbouring country is utmost, no one shall feel interference in its internal matters by anyone. India’s positivity will be reciprocated by other members.
SAARC is an incomplete story without India and Pakistan , the two big countries of the region , they are nuclear powers and quite at loggerheads with each other, thereby influencing SAARC indirectly. They have to be aware of their responsibilities in the region rather than locking their horns for diverting their internal issues. Pakistan needs to rise above its political compulsions to address the trade issues with India.These two countries shall exploit their geographical, ethnic, historical and cultural affinity for the betterment of their people who suffer from the economic problem of poverty, illiteracy, unemployment and low economic development etc. People expect the two countries to live like France and Germany. India has border dispute with China too, still our trade with them is worth $60bn US dollars and if we can discuss trade with them, why we need guns with Pakistan?
If India and Pakistan get success in normalizing their relations half the SAARC disputes will get their solution. No one can solve their problems until these countries rise on their own and India may have to take the lead.
(The author is Deputy Director (MAIMS) Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University Delhi)
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