Prof Arvind Kumar
Notwithstanding the buzz of Iran trying to strike a deal with the US over its nuclear programme, Tehran may not be in a tearing hurry. Rather, the technological and economic sanctions imposed against it have been proved to be a boon in disguise for the Iranians. It has been able to develop uranium enrichment plant and many other technologies relevant and important for its growing strategic assets. It has also developed two-stage and three stage rockets and can launch them one after the other.
Indeed, the successful test firing of a new medium range missile over the years by Iran and the launch of its unmanned satellite into earth orbit signals the country’s overall strategic ambitions. Iran has always been in the news for its ongoing nuclear and ballistic missile programmes for several years. The developments in the field of science & technology and strengthening the R&D base in the Islamic Republic have always been a matter of debate and concern for the United States. Recall also that in December 2006, the United Nations Security Council has adopted three sanctions resolutions prohibiting States from providing Iran with technologies that could be used to advance its strategic assets.
Iran became the ninth nation in achieving the prowess in the field of advances made in science by launching ‘Omid’ (hope) satellite into earth orbit by using its indigenously built launch vehicle ‘Safir’ (emissary). Former Soviet Union had created history by launching ‘Sputnik’ in 1957, which marked the onset of advances made in space and satellite technology. The US followed suit by launching its satellite ‘Explorer 1’. France in 1966 launched ‘Asterix’, Japan launched ‘Osumi’ in 1970, China in 1970 launched ‘Dong Fang Hong 1’, UK launched ‘Prospero X-3’ in 1971, India in 1980 launched ‘Rohini’ satellite into the earth’s orbit and Israel also achieved such technological feat in 1988 with ‘Ofeq 1’.
Undoubtedly, Iran has launched its own satellite after several years of efforts. The ‘Safir’ booster has been developed into two and three stage configurations with the first stage. The launch raised international concerns regarding the progress Iran has made in its ballistic missile programme. The overall concern has been that if such potential exists with Iran then it might try and acquire an inter-continental ballistic missiles in the future. The technologies that Iran has been demonstrating in recent years are remarkable.
It is now obvious that Iran has demonstrated its improved proficiency with several types of rocket subsystems as well as the improvement of many other important and relevant technologies over the years. It must be reiterated here that in addition to Iran’s further improvement and development of rocket staging, it has acquired a more sophisticated rocket propellant capability. Iran has also been able to achieve an increase in the engine power with the ‘Safir’ launch. The technology that has been used to get “Omid” satellite into earth’s orbit is the one that could also be used to propel long range ballistic missiles.
The technological community has, however, doubted the technical parameters and has questioned as to how two-staged missile based on ‘scud type technology’ could have placed a satellite in orbit. It has been argued that much improved thrust would be required for putting satellite into orbit perhaps using cryogenic fuels such as liquid oxygen. It is well known that the former Soviet Union originally developed a short range scud missile during the 1950s. A large number of countries acquired these types of missiles from it. Such missiles were used to develop more sophisticated and advanced missile system by many countries.
It seems highly likely that Iran’s space launch vehicle programme is closely related and linked with its ongoing ballistic missile programme. Many independent estimates and assessments suggest that the first stage of the ‘Safir’ is a slightly modified version of its medium range Sahab-3 missile. It has also made it clear that Iran has the potential of making long range missiles. The ‘Safir’ launch has a number of military applications despite the fact that the satellite was small and lightweight compared with a nuclear warhead.
It has been widely accepted that Iran could use its space launch vehicle programme as a technical base for developing intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles. The rationale for Iranian to have a robust ballistic missile programme obviously has been rooted in its perceived threat perceptions. Prior to 1991and the first Gulf War, the main threat to Iran was Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. The Iranians began developing their missile programme at the height of the Iran-Iraq war after Saddam began launching missiles at Iran.
The only thing the Iranians could use in response during that point in time was Scud, which they had received from Libya. The threat perception of Iran has changed since the Gulf War. It is generally believed in Iran that the United States has replaced Iraq as their pre-eminent threat. In the current context, the Iranian threat scenario seems to be a massive US military action against Iran aided by the US allies in the region including the Gulf States and Israel.
It is against the backdrop of the threat perception, that Iran would most likely like to invest and concentrate on achieving precision-strike munitions, naval anti-ship weapons, ballistic missiles of long ranges, space programmes and nuclear weapons programmes. Currently, Iran has the most intensive ballistic missile programme in the Third World with constantly increasing and improving the payload and ranges. The successful test firing of a new medium range missile by Iran over the years has increased the degree of the US concern. It has added to the existing concerns raised by the US, which signaled the probable and possible fears of missile capabilities.
The ‘Sejil-2’ is a two stage ballistic missile and works on solid fuel. It has been estimated that the missile will have roughly a range of 2000 km. The range has certainly put all the European countries on Tehran’s radar screen. Iran already had the capability to target Israel. However, it has been officially maintaining that its missile programme is merely for defence and the space programme is meant exclusively for scientific and surveillance purposes.
There is no doubt in saying that on the one hand it was certainly a technological feat for Iran in terms of S&T prowess. The ‘Omid’ satellite launch was mainly a symbolic accomplishment because of the size of the satellite. Launching of a satellite and test firing a missile of intermediate range were certainly major accomplishments after years of delays, failures and technological sanctions. The developments in Iran with regard to S&T will certainly make an attempt to improve the capabilities of the existing strategic assets. It can only look ahead—INFA
(The author is Professor Department of Geopolitics and Intl Relations, Manipal Univ.)
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