Harsha Kakar
The budget presented by the finance minister to the nation last week has been debated in every form of media. While every budget has its strengths and weaknesses, however this one has one glaring shortcoming. It has refused to accept the fact that national security has a strong link to national development. The fact that only a secure nation can develop and attract foreign investment and technology,whereasan insecure nation, on the other hand, would always remain on the side lines, battling for survival and living on the largesse of others, is well known.
The power of a nation flows from three pillars, diplomatic, economic and military. Hence, if we seek a seat on the UN Security Council and be a dominant power, then we need to have the pillars strong. The economic pillar is steadilygrowing, as our rate of development continues; the diplomatic has received a boost due to positive and strong actions of the present government. However, the budget has left the last pillar weak. This is the pillar which would support and back the other two, especially when we deal with nations in our close environment.
Finance and defence are two strange bed fellows. Finance feels that expenditure on defence has limited value, as there are no financial returns. They are of the opinion that irrespective of the amount allocated, the feeling would always be that money is short. Further the defence ministry has never been able to spend the allocated capital budget. Defence financial management has been haphazard. The discovery of almost three billion dollars stored in US banks over the years is a clear example. Defence planners in India, on the other hand, talk of the need to enhance the defence share to about three per cent of the total budget. They feel that there are modernization plans which suffer due to shortage of funds. Though logically no fixed proportion is essential, requirements realistically projected should be met.
The present defence budget has a few glaring shortcomings. The revenue budget is to enable the military to maintain its existing forces and assets. This year the government has reduced the revenue budget and also amalgamated salaries into it. The capital budget has similarly been reduced. Over 50% of the capital budget goes for making payments frompast purchases, hence only a limited amount would be available this year for new procurements. The finance ministry has therefore left the military tight fisted in every sphere of its activity.
Strategically India does not exist in a secure environment. Irrespective of the manner in which talks with Pakistan progresses, there is no guarantee that we are secure from their terrorist strikes. In case of even one successful strike, this government which has so far been showing an olive branch would be forced to retract and contemplate some form of military action. It could be an aerial strike or a limited ground operation. This could escalate and create an environment of possible hostilities, for which the military has to have the requisite wherewithal. Shortfalls in essentials, ammunition and equipment would never give it the advantage necessary for ensuring victory or deterring enemy misadventures. However, victory would still come, but at a high cost.
China on the other hand, has created tensions in the South and East China seas, while working at opening bases at Gwadar in Pakistan and Djibouti in Africa. It has also taken a decision to increase its already high defence budget by 7 to 8%, mainly to enhance its naval power. This would permit it to dominate the Indian Ocean and the sea routes of Indian shipping. The Indian navy is presently way behind its levels of submarines and modernization plans for its ships to even contemplate challenging China. In the last decade it has decommissioned more submarines than it has added. To counter Chinese army offensive plans on the northern front, the previous government began the raising of a mountain strike corps. The same has slowed down due to financial constraints.
In the event of a war against both Pakistan and China, for which the military always needs to be prepared and equipped, the air force is way below its minimum requirement of fighter air craft. The Rafale deal has still to be inked and the production of Tejas has yet to commence. Thus we are under our holding and continue with technologically inferior and aged aircraft.
Therefore it is not the percentage of the national budget, as demanded by defence planners, which becomes important at this stage, but the desire to meet the needs of security of the nation. All high flying figures of growth, which form the basis of planning as given by the finance minister, are based on a nation secure at its frontiers, unhindered by acts from across the border and no hindrances to its growth. The defence ministry on the other hand is uncertain of the level and quantum of deals it is likely to finalize in the coming year, further adding to the confusion.
History shows that every time there has been a crises, whether the wars in 1962, 65, 71 or Kargil or even when the nation mobilized post the parliament attack, the government has realized its folly and the defence budget for the next financial year has been radically increased. Each time it has been too late. The main battle has been fought with shortcomings. Post the event, once the situation stabilizes, the speed of procurements dry up, and life becomes normal. National security recedes to the background to be reconsidered only when the next crises raises its ugly head.
Is this the scenario we desire to see again and again, or do we now have a government which can think ahead, look forward, see the manner in which the world security scenario is moving and react in time. The government is well aware, that development of capabilities takes time and hence unless planned today, would not see the light of day, a few years ahead. Do we again need to cry to the world the next time Pakistan’s own ISI launches another terrorist strike or have the strength and capability to strike back and strike deep, knowing we can respond to any misadventure plan of his? Let the financial and defence strategic wizards consider the link between security and development and determine what should bethe minimum essential funds required for national security and allocate the same.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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