Col J P Singh
Oh! Death, thy Serpent is at my Door.
Stopped at Galwan, go back to thy Serpentine Home.
Most of us perceive Pakistan as country’s implacable enemy and a source of everlasting stand-off. In all our imaginations, be it Bollywood, Cricket or electoral campaigns, taking on Pakistan and making it bite the dust has been equivalent to bravery worthy of respect. Indians had not held such extreme sentiments for China despite the humiliation of losing the 1962 War. But by deceit China tried to capture Ladakh taking advantage of Corona Pandemic. Having seen India alarmed by Wuhan Virus pandemic and its inability to even transport migrant labourers to their homes from their place of work, China thought this was the ideal time to walk over Ladakh. Despite the unflinching trust we always had in ‘Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai, she beat us in the battle of wits in Ladakh. Nation should be grateful to the Indian Army (Galwan Tigers) who showed them the grit of the Indian nation. Ironically sacrifices of Galwan were not pursued to a logical conclusion. An opportunity was lost to attack and push the PLA back to their April 2019 positions. It would have been a big success because of the anger in the army. Conversely the Chinese were indirectly helped for face saving by us instead of teaching them a lesson and showing our wavering resolve to the world.Turning their defeat into their victory by our failure to act in time and take advantage of fleeting opportunities has not gone down well with the amred forces.
Reliance on disengagement process in Ladakh, despite all the media and diplomatic hype, is in the eyes of storm. Premier Modi has been virtually impervious to criticism on issues of national security. Incidently currently he is under severe attack from his domestic political critics and opposition parties because of PLA transgressions. Despite having denied any ingress, he is certainly un-nerved on the Ladakh incident. And there is public anger against China and a dominant feeling that China has to be stopped before it succeeds in changing the status-quo on the India-China boundary. Who can stop it? Is it the political leadership or the diplomacy. Both are trying simultaneously. Should the efforts fail, armed forces, as always, is the last and the lasting hope.
With the China threat becoming real than virtual, additional Army Divisions and Air Force Squadrons were inducted into Ladakh Sector. Besides boosting LAC defences, Indian Navy has moved into the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. Air Force has added 5 Rafale fighters beisdes many other air warfare machines in its inventory. Defence purches have been accelerated. Visit of the prime minister and defence minister to forward areas of Ladakh means that top politcal and military leadership is not willing to accept Chinese action on the LAC. No less than status quo ante has been made clear to China. What is at stake is the principle that not an inch of Indian territory is negotiable which by extension also means that all the illegally held areas by China and Pakistan are also not negotiable. Hence the disengagement, if doesn’t happen, there will be a war. When and where, is for the military strategists to decide. Suffice to say that time is ripe when China is a global eyesore. Without sounding alarmist, my hunch is that a India-China War is imminent. It may be fought on the battle-gorunds of Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B). Signals of military option by CDS, though sound alarmist, is a reality in the Indian sub-continent to check the Dragon spewing its venom in Himalayas and Indian Ocean. As I understand, China is eyeing at G-B while India is bogged down in Pandemic with economic slow down. Take over of G-B from Pakistan is being worked out as reported. This may be because of our continuous propaganda of soon liberating G-B from Pak illegal occupation. These assertions have rattled both Pakistan and China. Otherwise also China has many sinister designs in mineral rich G-B. More than an army Division of PLA is already there since long. It has been reinforced after Galwan incident. Pak and Chinese fighter aircrafts have been positioned at Skardu Airfield to ward off Indian attack.
Chinese complicity in the spread the dreaded Corona Pandemic with Wuhan virus, affecting the US worst, has isolated China universally. American Super Power factor comes into play against China at the moment. History is repeating. Hitler challenged British and France, two great powers of the world. Similarly Xi Jinping has challaneged America and India, one super power and the other a great power. Consequent to it America deployed its Naval War Ships in South China Sea challenging Chinese in South China Sea. B 52 Bombers have been brought in at Andaman-Nicbar. Xi is bound to meet the same fate as Hitler.
History is repeating is becoming clear. During the cold war there were two super powers. USSR entered Afghanistan in 1979 to enter warm waters of Arabian Sea through Afghanistan. China is doing the same through Pakistan. America got an opportunity then as well as now. Then it used Pakistan and within 10 years demolished USSR and became an exclusive super power. Now India. China is entering Russian shoes and running very fast. She is aspiring to be an unchallenged hegemonic super power during the pandemic and is attempting to fast track entering Arabian Sea by taking over control of G-B. CPEC gives it an access to the Persian Gulf. Once China takes over G-B fully, India can forget its retrieval. If China enters Gulf, it can threaten West’s dependence on energy supply from the Gulf. Hence there is an opportunity for America and India to demolish China and scuttle its dreams of super power. I think both, Indian and American, are smart enough to scuttle Chinese dreams. That is doable by blocking China in G-B, South China Sea and Indian Ocean. That can only be done by US strategic and Naval involvement in high seas and Indian military action in Himalayas.
World knows China has never fought an all out war whereas India has history of wars and conquests. Indian Army is a professional army. China knows any misadventure will be a reverse of 1962 walk over. India knows defeat of China in Himalayas is certain. Lot has been said about Xi Jinping’s nemesis. Our resolve to checkmate China in Himalayas & Indian Ocean and American resolve in South China Sea & Gulf is also clear. Apart from Indian military strength, other global and regional factors go in favour of India in scuttling Chinese slami-slicing of our territoty. They are, (i) Tibetans are fighting for freedom under the leadership of Dalai Lama and fighting for Himalayas under the leadership of Modi. Capture of Spanggur Heights by 7 Vikas (SFF) and taking 45 prisoners is an example of Indo-Tibetan anger against China. It is clearer that Tibet can be liberated if India and US abandon one China policy. (ii) Baltis are being exploited and discrimintaed by Pakistan. They are being denied basic human rights. They are agitating on daily basis against PLA presence in G-B and fighting for freedom from Pakistan. (iii) Baloch are fighting against CPEC through Balochistan and for freedom from Pakistan. (iv) There is internal unrest in China and Hong Kong is also restive. (v) Taiwan is directly confronting China in its periphery. (vi) Australia and Japan are also leading a regional charge against China. (vii) Vietnam & Philippines are fed up with persistent Chinese Naval manoeuvres in their territorial waters. (viii) Diplomatically and financially Pakistan is at its lowest ebb.
Here is the time and opportunity to exploit these fault lines. Let Gilgit-Baltistan be our chosen battleground in the Himalayas. US can decide its own. As is stated, ‘time and tide wait for none’. Sure India and America will not miss this opportunity.
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