Chiranjib Haldar
Shipping wall in the Indian Ocean
As expected, a battered Maldives President has played the China card against India. But two questions spring up. First, what is in this game of oneupmanship for China and second how this affects Maldives geopolitically. Maldives is a pretty small country, just 300 square kilometers of land and a population of around 500,000 but with a strategic marine location. Maldives is a massive underwater ridge. Think of it as a wall in the Indian Ocean and one can’t sail through it. The only path is located to the north and south of Maldives, two waterways for a bulk of transhipment. If one looks at the navigational contour map on any website, one can see clusters of ships to the north and south of Maldives. So it’s a prime waterway. A vast chunk of China’s trade passes through this channel, especially oil imports from West Asia. For both India and China, security and safe passage are priorities. 50 per cent of our trade and around 80 per cent of our energy Imports pass through these sea Lanes.
The marine highway
The Indian Ocean is a very busy marine highway and Male is like a toll booth. To control the shipping line, you need to control the toll booth. So, China stationing warships adjoining Male or worse, building a naval base in the Maldives may disrupt India’s supplies. We have already seen this powerplay in 2017 when three Chinese warships visited the Maldives. In 2018, 11 Chinese vessels sailed into the East Indian Ocean; a fleet of destroyers and one frigate and the timing was symbolic. In 2018, Maldives was engulfed in a political crisis. Then President Abdullah Yamin declared an emergency and that’s when the Chinese warships came. One of Beijing’s missions has been to lure our old ally Maldives to China’s side. But China’s assistance has never been free. It has been a debt trap for another island nation and Male should remember that.
A luxurious debt trap?
Even a cursory look at some numbers show how Maldives is neck deep in loans. The nation’s total debt is nearly 110% of their GDP which means their debt is astonishingly more than their GDP. To put that in context, Sri Lanka’s debt was 115 per cent of its GDP at the end of 2022. So despite the splashing water villas, promotions and cruises, things are bad. Maldives spends around 300 million dollars to service its debt annually and that simply amounts to interest plus repayment of 300 million dollars every year. By the end of 2026, this debt servicing is expected to reach 1 billion dollars annually. Can Male afford that luxury trap? Maldivian foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to 16% in 2023 and a big reason for that is China.
Replay of island nations
Beijing is the biggest lender to Maldives. Male owes 1.3 billion dollars to China, Saudi Arabia ranks second at 124 million dollars and India is third at 123 million dollars. A staggering contrast of 1.3 billion versus 123 million in dollar terms and yet President Muizzu wants China as the top investor for Maldives. It is a very risky mission, fraught with consequences; also a familiar one. Sri Lanka did the same under former President Rajapaksha. It landed them in a quandary. Ultimately, India stood by Colombo while Beijing sidestepped. Is Maldives heading towards that path? Though multiple Maldivian politicians have lashed out at President Muizzu, he has not apologised. Rather he wants China to increase its tourist flow to counter any loss of Indian vacationers.
Archipelago tussle
Atmospherics and optics play a crucial role in any diplomatic relationship. It’s important to keep the larger picture in mind and the larger picture in India-Maldives ties is not the social media outrage by celebs and sundry. It is not about the three suspended Maldivian ministers for their derogatory anti-India comments. Neither is it a vacation tug-of-war between Lakshadweep and Maldives. But it is the strategic battle between India and China for control of this archipelago. President Mohamed Muizzu’s maiden foreign visit, after assuming the presidency to China, courting investors in Beijing and Fujhou to bolster the Maldivian economy, all point to a repositioning. China is trying to upstage India as Male’s principal ally and President Muizzu asserting, ‘We have no doubt that China will be our closest partner in development’.
Milking a negative spin
The roots of President Muizzu’s anti-India rhetoric can be retraced to his electioneering in the Maldivian polls. He eulogised the India out campaign vehemently. Muizzu ignited anti-India propaganda and turned his supporters against New Delhi. It is easy to dismiss the three expelled ministers as loudmouths or loose cannons but they represent a new breed of Maldivian politicians fostered by President Muizzu’s party. One where India is the big brother trying to dominate and imprint the Maldivian psyche into submission. So the blame for these unwarranted comments may lie with President Muizzu himself. He did not press the trigger but did everything else from assimilating the explosives to marking the target. The reason for his acerbic campaign is easy to decipher. A negative spin in a domestic poll campaign against a neighbouring nation can catapult positive results and subcontinental politicians have proven this umpteen times. Pleading with China to reclaim the top spot in tourist arrivals in Male is shadowboxing. President Muizzu is merely towing a well-crafted trend and his Chinese sojourn to boost the Maldivian economy only proves how an anti-India sentiment has become the hallmark of his presidency.
The writer is a commentator on politics and society.
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