By Ashis Biswas
In Bangladesh, the recent Awami League (AL) victory in the 2024 parliamentary polls has left major world powers sharply divided and common people confused. Significantly, the none-too-unpredictable outcome has not left too many Bangladeshis noticeably jubilant, excepting ruling AL leaders.
The comfortable margin of the AL’s victory has bought ruling Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed a much needed breathing space after a prolonged, unusually acrimonious pre- election campaign.
However her relief may yet be short-lived, in the context of the formidable economic and political challenges Bangladesh is currently up against. What worries even her friendliest advisers is whether in the medium term, world economic trends will remain as acutely unfavourable for most developing countries as at present.
This is particularly important for Bangladesh, a country which observers now concede, has re-elected to power the AL, because of its aggressive promotion of economic development in recent years. The undeniable economic progress made during the AL tenure leading to booming exports, rising remittances and a sustained growth in the domestic economy through spectacular infra development projects providing mass employment, is admitted– however grudgingly — by even her powerful political opponents in the US and EU .
The 2024 poll results therefore provide confirmation of conventional political wisdom among policymakers that most voters respond to visible economic progress, while sidelining other controversial issues. This is exactly what the beleaguered Prime Minister and her party had been desperately hoping, would happen. For once, the ugly mix of corruption, nepotism and authoritarianism in Bangladesh’s domestic politics, mattered less than economic growth. .
The Western bloc of countries, while generally deprecating the poll outcome, have warned Dhaka that they would continue to monitor whether the AL addresses these problems transparently, going forward. To the US, EU and some United Nation officials, the size of the AL’s one-sided victory did not mean a thing.
Since the poll stats have been widely reported in various media, there is little point in repeating them. Suffice it to say that the eventual figures released by the Bangladesh Election Commission did not satisfy the critical norms set by the West.
Statements from top Western politicians in fact put Bangladesh on notice that the new government would remain very much under their critical scanner. In view of reports of intimidation, widespread arrests of opposition workers, the major boycott of polls by the biggest challenging party, the outcome of 2024 Bangladesh Parliamentary elections remained open to questioning. The overall polling percentage exceeding just 40%, was also suspect.
Significantly however, while the Western bloc indicated its disapproval of Bangladeshi poll results, the country could not be dismissively sidelined. Three major countries, including immediate neighbours China and India as well as Russia, promptly congratulated the reigning PM on winning yet another term and expressing their support for the future as well.
Presumably following this ringing endorsement of Bangladesh from the non-western bloc, some more countries including such international heavyweights as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Japan and Singapore, also sent congratulatory messages.
The relief in Dhaka, according to most observers, was palpable. As senior AL leaders had repeatedly stressed in private conversations, securing the support of China and India in their immediate neighbourhood was top priority. China had helped Bangladesh massively in recent years, with an assured financial package of $22 billion over the next five or so years. Present Indian assistance to Bangladesh exceeds f $5 billion .The comparative lack of similar investments from the West (excepting Japan), makes ensuring the present levels of support from Beijing and Delhi an all important task for Dhaka
The Western reaction could not dismiss the 2024 election results as manipulated or rigged, as it done while referring to earlier elections — not yet, that is. This has considerably added to the disappointment of the opposition in Bangladesh. Some senior Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leaders, enjoy considerable support/sympathy from Western governments as well as various HR groups and institutions in recent years. They now feel let down. Many were hoping for an automatic rejection of the poll results in the West in view of the continuing non-participation of the BNP in the polls, for the second time running. It seems they had overplayed their hands and miscalculated.
But this is not to suggest that the AL is looking forward to a smooth sailing from here on — far from it. The West still fully retains its powers to impose economic sanctions on countries it considers unfriendly, including developing countries. Bangladesh has already had a mild taste of US/imposed sanctions. Quite apart from imposing visa restrictions for selected political individuals/officials, there could be more damaging sanctions in store– a sanction on the present level of imports of Bangladesh-made garments in the West for instance, could immediately sabotage the hefty export earnings that Dhaka enjoys within the EU and in the US– these constitute the bulk of $40 billion or so earned during a good year!
Is there an immediate threat of this happening? No, but Bangladeshi analysts have warned of such a possibility sometime in the future, depending on the future course of the patently uneasy relations between Bangladesh and the Western bloc.
As it is, there is the strong possibility of Bangladesh earning less from its exports from 2027-28 onwards, as the traditional advantage it enjoyed as an exporting LDC would no longer be available. Bangladesh policymakers are hard at work to arrange for the production of high quality garments too to compete with China on level terms.
Dhaka would also have to repay heavy amounts on official loans it had taken from various international agencies and institutions, which would certainly strain its forex reserves. As it is, its reserves are down to around $15/16 billion at present, on account of the Ukraine war and the attendant economic impact. Earlier, it had reserves to the tune of $40 billion or so.
The point: the ruling AL despite its impressive election victory, can hardly afford to antagonise the West in the medium term and must undertake convincing efforts to improve its domestic political functioning, its HR record and cut down on mounting corruption and political partisanship.
The contrasting reactions from the West and the non-aligned bloc headed by the BRICS countries over the Bangladesh poll results further indicate that the new emerging alignment among major nations over recent world developments such as the war in Ukraine , continues .The West , regardless of the relative strength of the US dollar as the World’s leading currency and economic domination, cannot hope to dictate as before to many African as well as Asian countries to fall in line with its objectives or political agenda.
The effective fightback against US /EU sanctions by Russia and the international support it continues to enjoy, cannot fail to encourage countries like Bangladesh. Many developing countries, thanks to the level of economic progress achieved by the BRICS countries, are well aware that they would not face the crippling pains of sanctions and boycotts a la Cuba in the past.
Bangladesh is no exception. If the West carries its threats too far, it may end up driving Bangladesh, an important South Asian country of 170 million people with a fairly strong economy, into the eager embrace of China. (IPA)
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